Language:English
Matt Schnell v Alessandro Costa
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Matt Schnell (Local)
Prediction 21.65%4.62fair odd
EV +2.83%
Edge +0.596%
Kelly +0.755%
Growth +0.021%
assuming max odds 4.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.03%21.64%21.77%23.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.904.384.404.7525.64%22.84%22.73%21.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Alessandro Costa (Visit)
Prediction 78.35%1.28fair odd
EV -2.84%
Edge -2.29%
Kelly -11.85%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.24
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
76.17%78.36%78.23%79.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.191.221.221.2484.03%81.99%81.97%80.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Matt Schnell (Local): 21.65%; Alessandro Costa (Visit): 78.35%. For Matt Schnell (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.62. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.83%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neds🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV +2.83%E +0.596%K +0.755%G +0.021% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -6.76%E -5.68%K -35.59%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-06-06 22:59 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV +2.83%E +0.596%K +0.755%G +0.021% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -6.76%E -5.68%K -35.59%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-06-06 22:59 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 4.55I 21.98%NM 21.14%EV -1.50%E -0.330%K -0.422%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.86%EV -4.41%E -3.62%K -20.05%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-06-05 18:39 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -2.58%E -0.574%K -0.738%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -4.41%E -3.62%K -20.05%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-06-06 23:29 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -2.58%E -0.574%K -0.738%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -4.41%E -3.62%K -20.05%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-06-06 19:49 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -2.58%E -0.574%K -0.738%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -4.41%E -3.62%K -20.05%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-06-06 16:19 |
| Betsson🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -2.58%E -0.574%K -0.738%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -4.41%E -3.62%K -20.05%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-06-06 16:19 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -2.58%E -0.574%K -0.738%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -5.98%E -4.98%K -29.89%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-06 09:40 |
| BetUS🎯 | 4.48I 22.32%NM 21.40%EV -3.01%E -0.673%K -0.866%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.60%EV -4.41%E -3.62%K -20.05%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-06-06 23:29 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.38%EV -3.66%E -0.823%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.62%EV -5.19%E -4.29%K -24.74%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-06-06 16:59 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.44I 22.52%NM 21.83%EV -3.88%E -0.874%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 78.17%EV -2.84%E -2.29%K -11.85%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-06-06 22:49 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.85%EV -4.75%E -1.08%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 78.15%EV -3.63%E -2.95%K -15.77%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-06-06 22:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.85%EV -4.75%E -1.08%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 78.15%EV -3.63%E -2.95%K -15.77%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-06-06 23:28 |
| Caesars🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.85%EV -4.75%E -1.08%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 78.15%EV -3.63%E -2.95%K -15.77%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-06-06 19:47 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -4.75%E -1.08%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -4.41%E -3.62%K -20.05%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-06-06 23:29 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -4.75%E -1.08%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -4.41%E -3.62%K -20.05%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-06-06 19:49 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -4.75%E -1.08%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -4.41%E -3.62%K -20.05%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-06-06 19:49 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -4.75%E -1.08%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -4.41%E -3.62%K -20.05%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-06-06 19:50 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -4.75%E -1.08%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -4.41%E -3.62%K -20.05%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-06-06 19:50 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -4.75%E -1.08%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -4.41%E -3.62%K -20.05%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-06-06 19:49 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -4.75%E -1.08%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -4.41%E -3.62%K -20.05%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-06-06 19:49 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -4.75%E -1.08%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -4.41%E -3.62%K -20.05%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-06-06 19:50 |
| Fliff🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -4.75%E -1.08%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -5.19%E -4.29%K -24.74%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-06 23:30 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.90%EV -5.83%E -1.34%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.10%EV -4.41%E -3.62%K -20.05%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-06 23:09 |
| Bovada🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.90%EV -5.83%E -1.34%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.10%EV -4.41%E -3.62%K -20.05%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-06 23:28 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.45%EV -7.99%E -1.88%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.55%EV -3.63%E -2.95%K -15.77%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-06-06 19:20 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -11.24%E -2.74%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -2.84%E -2.29%K -11.85%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-06 19:20 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.30%EV -12.32%E -3.04%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.70%EV -3.63%E -2.95%K -15.77%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-06-06 19:30 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -13.41%E -3.35%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -4.41%E -3.62%K -20.05%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-06 16:58 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -13.41%E -3.35%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -4.41%E -3.62%K -20.05%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-06 17:00 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -15.57%E -3.99%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.17%EV -4.41%E -3.62%K -20.05%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-06-06 23:29 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 5.00I 20.00%NM 20.00% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 80.00% | 0.0% | 2026-06-06 23:29 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.01% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 77.99% | 1.0% | 2026-06-06 23:29 |
| Kalshi◎ | 4.76I 21.01%NM 20.80% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 79.20% | 1.0% | 2026-06-06 23:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.01% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 78.99% | 1.3% | 2026-06-06 23:30 |
| Matchbook◎ | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.01% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 78.99% | 1.3% | 2026-06-06 23:30 |
| Novig◎ | 4.78I 20.92%NM 20.60% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 79.40% | 1.6% | 2026-06-06 23:29 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.88% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 79.12% | 1.9% | 2026-06-06 23:29 |
| ProphetX◎ | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.88% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 79.12% | 1.9% | 2026-06-06 23:30 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 4.41I 22.68%NM 20.86% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 77.30% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.84% | 8.7% | 2026-06-06 19:39 |