The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Matt Adams v Anthony Wint

Kickoff: 2026-08-12 01:15 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Matt Adams (Local)

Prediction 10.59%9.44fair odd
EV +27.06%
Edge +2.26%
Kelly +2.46%
Growth +0.666%

assuming max odds 12.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.05%10.05%10.59%13.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.859.329.2412.0014.60%10.73%10.82%8.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Anthony Wint (Visit)

Prediction 89.41%1.12fair odd
EV -2.54%
Edge -2.33%
Kelly -28.24%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.09

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
86.38%89.95%89.41%91.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.051.071.071.0995.24%93.26%93.46%91.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Matt Adams (Local): 10.59%; Anthony Wint (Visit): 89.41%. For Matt Adams (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 9.44. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 12.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +27.06%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
FanDuel🎯12.00I 8.33%NM 8.05%EV +27.06%E +2.26%K +2.46%G +0.666%1.05I 95.24%NM 91.95%EV -6.12%E -5.83%K -122.36%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-12 01:04
Unibet🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.67%EV +5.89%E +0.589%K +0.654%G +0.039%1.07I 93.46%NM 90.33%EV -4.33%E -4.05%K -61.86%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-12 01:04
Grosvenor🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.67%EV +5.89%E +0.589%K +0.654%G +0.039%1.07I 93.46%NM 90.33%EV -4.33%E -4.05%K -61.86%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-12 01:04
TABtouch🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.67%EV +5.89%E +0.589%K +0.654%G +0.039%1.07I 93.46%NM 90.33%EV -4.33%E -4.05%K -61.86%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-12 01:05
Pinnacle🎯9.24I 10.82%NM 10.55%EV -2.16%E -0.234%K -0.262%G +0.000%1.09I 91.74%NM 89.45%EV -2.54%E -2.33%K -28.24%G +0.000%2.6%2026-08-12 00:30
Unibet (UK)🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV -4.70%E -0.522%K -0.588%G +0.000%1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -4.33%E -4.05%K -61.86%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-12 00:39
BetOnline.ag🎯8.76I 11.42%NM 10.98%EV -7.24%E -0.827%K -0.933%G +0.000%1.08I 92.59%NM 89.02%EV -3.44%E -3.18%K -42.95%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-12 01:13
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV -15.29%E -1.91%K -2.18%G +0.000%1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -4.33%E -4.05%K -61.86%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-11 12:30
BetAnything🎯6.85I 14.60%NM 13.62%EV -27.47%E -4.01%K -4.70%G +0.000%1.08I 92.59%NM 86.38%EV -3.44%E -3.18%K -42.95%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-12 01:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎10.00I 10.00%NM 9.83%1.09I 91.74%NM 90.17%1.7%2026-08-12 01:10
ProphetX◎9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%5.5%2026-08-12 01:05