Language:English
Matheus Camilo v Jai Herbert
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Matheus Camilo (Local)
Prediction 63.04%1.59fair odd
EV -2.29%
Edge -1.48%
Kelly -4.16%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.55
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.79%63.16%62.96%65.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.411.511.521.5570.92%66.28%66.01%64.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Jai Herbert (Visit)
Prediction 36.96%2.71fair odd
EV +1.64%
Edge +0.596%
Kelly +0.936%
Growth +0.015%
assuming max odds 2.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.83%36.84%37.04%38.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.282.562.552.7543.86%39.06%39.22%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Matheus Camilo (Local): 63.04%; Jai Herbert (Visit): 36.96%. For Jai Herbert (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.71. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.64%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -7.33%E -4.99%K -15.60%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV +1.64%E +0.596%K +0.936%G +0.015% | 4.4% | 2026-10-10 23:35 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.78%EV -6.07%E -4.07%K -12.39%G +0.000% | 2.74I 36.50%NM 35.22%EV +1.27%E +0.463%K +0.729%G +0.009% | 3.6% | 2026-10-11 01:35 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%EV -6.07%E -4.07%K -12.39%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.56%EV -0.210%E -0.078%K -0.123%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-11 01:10 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%EV -6.07%E -4.07%K -12.39%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.56%EV -0.210%E -0.078%K -0.123%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-11 01:35 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -8.59%E -5.92%K -19.09%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -0.210%E -0.078%K -0.123%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-10 23:35 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.70%EV -4.81%E -3.18%K -9.43%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.30%EV -2.06%E -0.776%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-10-11 01:05 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -5.44%E -3.63%K -10.88%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -2.06%E -0.776%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 63.13%EV -3.55%E -2.32%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.87%EV -3.17%E -1.21%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-10-10 14:01 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 63.29%EV -4.18%E -2.75%K -8.04%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.71%EV -3.17%E -1.21%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-10-11 01:03 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 62.74%EV -2.29%E -1.48%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 2.61I 38.31%NM 37.26%EV -3.54%E -1.35%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-10-11 01:30 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.80%EV -2.92%E -1.89%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.20%EV -3.91%E -1.50%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-10-11 01:34 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -3.55%E -2.32%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -3.91%E -1.50%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-10-10 19:47 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.44%E -3.63%K -10.88%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -3.91%E -1.50%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-11 01:20 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.44%E -3.63%K -10.88%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -3.91%E -1.50%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.44%E -3.63%K -10.88%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -3.91%E -1.50%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -3.55%E -2.32%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -5.75%E -2.26%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-10-11 01:10 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -4.18%E -2.75%K -8.04%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -5.75%E -2.26%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-11 00:40 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.44%E -3.63%K -10.88%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.75%E -2.26%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.12%EV -6.07%E -4.07%K -12.39%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.88%EV -5.75%E -2.26%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-11 01:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.75%EV -8.59%E -5.92%K -19.09%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.25%EV -5.75%E -2.26%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-10-11 01:05 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.25%EV -2.92%E -1.89%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 37.75%EV -6.12%E -2.41%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-10-11 01:30 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.55%E -2.32%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -7.60%E -3.04%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-10 13:59 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.55%E -2.32%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -7.60%E -3.04%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.55%E -2.32%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -7.60%E -3.04%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.55%E -2.32%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -7.60%E -3.04%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.55%E -2.32%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -7.60%E -3.04%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.55%E -2.32%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -7.60%E -3.04%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-10 14:01 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.55%E -2.32%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -7.60%E -3.04%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-10 14:01 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.55%E -2.32%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -7.60%E -3.04%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.55%E -2.32%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -7.60%E -3.04%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.55%E -2.32%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -7.60%E -3.04%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.55%E -2.32%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -7.60%E -3.04%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-10 14:01 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -4.81%E -3.18%K -9.43%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV -7.60%E -3.04%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-10 19:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.44%E -3.63%K -10.88%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -7.60%E -3.04%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-02 15:50 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.44%E -3.63%K -10.88%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -7.60%E -3.04%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-02 16:05 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.44%E -3.63%K -10.88%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -7.60%E -3.04%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-10 22:00 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.63%EV -6.70%E -4.53%K -13.96%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.37%EV -8.34%E -3.36%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-10-10 13:59 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 61.79%EV -11.11%E -7.88%K -27.10%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 38.21%EV -15.73%E -6.90%K -12.29%G +0.000% | 14.8% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (9)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.59I 62.89%NM 62.94% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 37.06% | -0.1% | 2026-10-11 01:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.58I 63.29%NM 63.26% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 36.74% | 0.1% | 2026-10-11 01:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.57I 63.69%NM 63.40% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 36.60% | 0.5% | 2026-10-11 01:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.57I 63.69%NM 63.40% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 36.60% | 0.5% | 2026-10-11 01:35 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.57I 63.69%NM 63.40% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 36.60% | 0.5% | 2026-10-11 01:35 |
| Novig◎ | 1.56I 64.10%NM 63.72% | 2.74I 36.50%NM 36.28% | 0.6% | 2026-10-11 01:35 |
| Polymarket◎ | 1.56I 64.10%NM 63.38% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.62% | 1.1% | 2026-10-11 01:35 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.56I 64.10%NM 63.38% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.62% | 1.1% | 2026-10-10 22:50 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.55I 64.52%NM 63.53% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.47% | 1.6% | 2026-10-11 01:35 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.32% | 2.61I 38.31%NM 35.81% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.87% | 7.0% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |