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Mateusz Rebecki v Kyle Prepolec

Kickoff: 2026-08-01 15:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

32 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Mateusz Rebecki (Local)

Prediction 85.72%1.17fair odd
EV -1.42%
Edge -1.24%
Kelly -9.48%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
82.71%85.47%85.68%87.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.081.121.121.1592.59%89.49%89.29%86.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kyle Prepolec (Visit)

Prediction 14.28%7.00fair odd
EV +7.10%
Edge +0.947%
Kelly +1.09%
Growth +0.078%

assuming max odds 7.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.79%14.53%14.32%17.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.506.416.257.5018.18%15.61%16.00%13.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Mateusz Rebecki (Local): 85.72%; Kyle Prepolec (Visit): 14.28%. For Kyle Prepolec (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.00. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.10%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (32 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Caesars🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 87.21%EV -5.71%E -5.19%K -57.08%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.79%EV +7.10%E +0.947%K +1.09%G +0.078%4.2%2026-08-01 14:56
BetOnline.ag🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 86.91%EV -4.85%E -4.37%K -44.10%G +0.000%7.37I 13.57%NM 13.09%EV +5.25%E +0.712%K +0.824%G +0.043%3.7%2026-08-01 14:50
Pinnacle🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 86.22%EV -3.14%E -2.78%K -24.13%G +0.000%7.07I 14.14%NM 13.78%EV +0.962%E +0.136%K +0.159%G +0.002%2.6%2026-08-01 14:50
BetUS🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 86.31%EV -4.85%E -4.37%K -44.10%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.69%EV -0.037%E -0.005%K -0.006%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-01 14:54
BetMGM🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 86.31%EV -4.85%E -4.37%K -44.10%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.69%EV -0.037%E -0.005%K -0.006%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-01 14:59
Unibet (UK)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.71%E -5.19%K -57.08%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -0.037%E -0.005%K -0.006%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-01 15:00
Bovada🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 85.77%EV -3.99%E -3.57%K -33.28%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.23%EV -3.61%E -0.534%K -0.627%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-01 14:49
FanDuel🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 85.68%EV -3.99%E -3.57%K -33.28%G +0.000%6.70I 14.93%NM 14.32%EV -4.32%E -0.645%K -0.758%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-01 15:00
SportsBet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.79%EV -4.85%E -4.37%K -44.10%G +0.000%6.70I 14.93%NM 14.21%EV -4.32%E -0.645%K -0.758%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-01 15:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.60%EV -4.85%E -4.37%K -44.10%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.40%EV -5.75%E -0.871%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-01 15:00
DraftKings🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -3.99%E -3.57%K -33.28%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV -7.18%E -1.10%K -1.30%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-01 14:35
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -3.99%E -3.57%K -33.28%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV -7.18%E -1.10%K -1.30%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-01 14:55
Fliff🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.12%EV -4.85%E -4.37%K -44.10%G +0.000%6.35I 15.75%NM 14.88%EV -9.32%E -1.47%K -1.74%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-01 14:59
BetRivers🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -3.99%E -3.57%K -33.28%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -10.75%E -1.72%K -2.05%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-01 14:05
Virgin Bet🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -3.99%E -3.57%K -33.28%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -10.75%E -1.72%K -2.05%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-01 14:05
LiveScore Bet🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -3.99%E -3.57%K -33.28%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -10.75%E -1.72%K -2.05%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-01 14:05
TABtouch🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -3.99%E -3.57%K -33.28%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -10.75%E -1.72%K -2.05%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-01 14:05
Unibet🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -3.99%E -3.57%K -33.28%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -10.75%E -1.72%K -2.05%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-01 14:04
ATG (SE)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -3.99%E -3.57%K -33.28%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -10.75%E -1.72%K -2.05%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-01 14:05
betPARX🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -3.99%E -3.57%K -33.28%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -10.75%E -1.72%K -2.05%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-01 14:05
Bally Bet🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -3.99%E -3.57%K -33.28%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -10.75%E -1.72%K -2.05%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-01 14:04
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -3.99%E -3.57%K -33.28%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -10.75%E -1.72%K -2.05%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-01 14:04
TAB🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -3.99%E -3.57%K -33.28%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -10.75%E -1.72%K -2.05%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-01 04:58
PlayUp🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 84.92%EV -4.85%E -4.37%K -44.10%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.08%EV -10.75%E -1.72%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-01 11:25
BetAnything🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.03%EV -5.71%E -5.19%K -57.08%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.97%EV -10.75%E -1.72%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-01 15:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -3.14%E -2.78%K -24.13%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -14.32%E -2.39%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-01 14:55
Bet Right🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -3.14%E -2.78%K -24.13%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -14.32%E -2.39%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-01 01:09
Betr (AU)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -3.99%E -3.57%K -33.28%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -14.32%E -2.39%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-01 14:05
Paddy Power🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -3.99%E -3.57%K -33.28%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -14.32%E -2.39%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-01 14:55
Coolbet🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 83.33%EV -1.42%E -1.24%K -9.48%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.67%EV -17.89%E -3.11%K -3.77%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-29 20:35
Grosvenor🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 84.19%EV -7.42%E -6.87%K -92.79%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.81%EV -17.89%E -3.11%K -3.77%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-01 14:04
Betway🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -1.42%E -1.24%K -9.48%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -21.46%E -3.90%K -4.77%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-30 17:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎1.14I 87.72%NM 87.25%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.75%0.5%2026-08-01 15:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.14I 87.72%NM 86.96%7.60I 13.16%NM 13.04%0.9%2026-08-01 14:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.14I 87.72%NM 86.96%7.60I 13.16%NM 13.04%0.9%2026-08-01 14:55
Kalshi◎1.12I 89.29%NM 88.15%8.33I 12.00%NM 11.85%1.3%2026-08-01 15:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.13I 88.50%NM 87.35%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.65%1.3%2026-08-01 15:00

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 82.96%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.21%50.00I 2.00%NM 1.83%9.6%2026-08-01 13:58

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