Mateusz Pawlik v Adam Niedzwiedz

2026-07-18 12:00 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

1 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

53%

47%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Mateusz Pawlik (Local)

Prediction 52.85%1.89fair odd

EV -8.05%

Edge -4.63%

Kelly -10.88%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

52.85%52.85%52.85%52.85%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

1.741.741.741.7457%57%57%57%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Adam Niedzwiedz (Visit)

Prediction 47.15%2.12fair odd

EV -8.05%

Edge -4.13%

Kelly -8.47%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

47.15%47.15%47.15%47.15%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

1.951.951.951.9551%51%51%51%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (1 sportsbooks)

Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
BetOnline.ag	1.74I 57.47%NM 52.85%EV -8.05%E -4.63%K -10.88%G +0.000%	1.95I 51.28%NM 47.15%EV -8.05%E -4.13%K -8.47%G +0.000%	8.8%	2026-07-14 21:09

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.