Language:English
Mateusz Gamrot v Quillan Salkilld
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Mateusz Gamrot (Local)
Prediction 41.25%2.42fair odd
EV -0.179%
Edge -0.074%
Kelly -0.126%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.42
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.70%41.56%40.81%45.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.272.252.4248.78%44.02%44.44%41.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Quillan Salkilld (Visit)
Prediction 58.75%1.70fair odd
EV +0.466%
Edge +0.272%
Kelly +0.656%
Growth +0.003%
assuming max odds 1.71
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.81%58.44%59.19%60.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.541.631.621.7164.94%61.28%61.73%58.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Mateusz Gamrot (Local): 41.25%; Quillan Salkilld (Visit): 58.75%. For Quillan Salkilld (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.70. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.71, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.466%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.96%EV -10.08%E -4.62%K -8.54%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.04%EV +0.466%E +0.272%K +0.656%G +0.003% | 4.4% | 2026-08-08 21:19 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -11.32%E -5.26%K -9.84%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -0.709%E -0.420%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-09 02:00 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.19%EV -15.44%E -7.53%K -14.71%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 54.81%EV -0.709%E -0.420%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-08 10:35 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -9.25%E -4.21%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -1.30%E -0.772%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-06 17:40 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -7.19%E -3.20%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -1.88%E -1.13%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-09 01:40 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -9.25%E -4.21%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -1.88%E -1.13%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-09 00:24 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -8.02%E -3.59%K -6.52%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -2.47%E -1.49%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-09 01:40 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -8.02%E -3.59%K -6.52%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -2.47%E -1.49%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-09 01:40 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -8.02%E -3.59%K -6.52%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -2.47%E -1.49%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-09 01:40 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -8.02%E -3.59%K -6.52%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -2.47%E -1.49%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-09 01:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -8.02%E -3.59%K -6.52%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -2.47%E -1.49%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-09 01:40 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -8.02%E -3.59%K -6.52%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -2.47%E -1.49%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-09 01:39 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -8.02%E -3.59%K -6.52%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -2.47%E -1.49%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-09 01:40 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -8.02%E -3.59%K -6.52%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -2.47%E -1.49%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-09 01:40 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -8.02%E -3.59%K -6.52%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -2.47%E -1.49%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-09 01:40 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -5.13%E -2.23%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -3.06%E -1.85%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-09 02:20 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.08%EV -10.08%E -4.62%K -8.54%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.92%EV -3.06%E -1.85%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-09 01:55 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.42I 41.32%NM 40.10%EV -0.179%E -0.074%K -0.126%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.90%EV -4.82%E -2.98%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-08-09 02:15 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV -1.00%E -0.419%K -0.717%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -4.82%E -2.98%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-08-09 02:20 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -3.07%E -1.31%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -4.82%E -2.98%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-09 02:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -3.07%E -1.31%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -4.82%E -2.98%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-09 02:00 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -3.07%E -1.31%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -4.82%E -2.98%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-09 02:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -3.07%E -1.31%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -4.82%E -2.98%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-09 02:19 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.34I 42.74%NM 40.91%EV -3.48%E -1.49%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.09%EV -4.82%E -2.98%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-09 02:14 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.13%E -2.23%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.82%E -2.98%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-09 02:15 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -7.19%E -3.20%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -4.82%E -2.98%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-09 02:19 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -7.19%E -3.20%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -4.82%E -2.98%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-09 02:19 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -3.07%E -1.31%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -5.41%E -3.36%K -8.87%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-09 02:14 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -9.25%E -4.21%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -5.41%E -3.36%K -8.87%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-09 02:15 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -1.00%E -0.419%K -0.717%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -6.00%E -3.75%K -10.00%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-09 02:15 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -3.07%E -1.31%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -6.00%E -3.75%K -10.00%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-09 01:55 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -3.07%E -1.31%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -6.00%E -3.75%K -10.00%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-09 02:15 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -3.07%E -1.31%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -6.00%E -3.75%K -10.00%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-09 02:14 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.13%E -2.23%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -6.00%E -3.75%K -10.00%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-09 01:55 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -1.00%E -0.419%K -0.717%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -7.17%E -4.54%K -12.37%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-09 01:50 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 43.01%EV -14.20%E -6.83%K -13.15%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 56.99%EV -7.76%E -4.94%K -13.61%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-08-09 01:40 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -3.07%E -1.31%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -8.93%E -5.76%K -16.24%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-09 02:19 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -7.19%E -3.20%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 59.37%EV -9.52%E -6.18%K -17.63%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-08-09 01:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ProphetX◎ | 2.48I 40.32%NM 40.38% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 59.62% | -0.2% | 2026-08-09 02:20 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.56I 39.06%NM 39.05% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.95% | 0.0% | 2026-08-09 02:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.46I 40.65%NM 40.44% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 59.56% | 0.5% | 2026-08-09 02:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.48I 40.32%NM 40.10% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 59.90% | 0.6% | 2026-08-09 02:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.46I 40.65%NM 40.29% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 59.71% | 0.9% | 2026-08-09 02:20 |
| Novig◎ | 2.47I 40.49%NM 39.90% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.10% | 1.5% | 2026-08-09 02:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.34I 42.74%NM 40.76% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.24% | 4.8% | 2026-08-09 02:20 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.21I 45.25%NM 42.38% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.75% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.87% | 6.8% | 2026-08-09 02:00 |
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