Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Mateusz Gamrot v Quillan Salkilld

2026-08-09 00:00 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

48%

52%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Mateusz Gamrot (Local)

Prediction 48.19%2.07fair odd

EV +2.65%

Edge +1.25%

Kelly +2.35%

Growth +0.062%

assuming max odds 2.13

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

45.10%48.19%48.65%50.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.781.941.902.1356.18%51.64%52.63%46.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Quillan Salkilld (Visit)

Prediction 51.81%1.93fair odd

EV -4.68%

Edge -2.54%

Kelly -5.57%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.84

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

49.17%51.81%51.35%54.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.751.801.801.8457.14%55.66%55.56%54.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
BetOnline.ag	2.13I 46.95%NM 45.10%EV +2.65%E +1.25%K +2.35%G +0.062%	1.75I 57.14%NM 54.90%EV -9.34%E -5.34%K -12.45%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-07-31 00:53
Betclic (FR)	1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%EV -8.43%E -4.44%K -9.37%G +0.000%	1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -6.75%E -3.75%K -8.44%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-07-30 22:25
Winamax (FR)	1.78I 56.18%NM 50.83%EV -14.22%E -7.99%K -18.23%G +0.000%	1.84I 54.35%NM 49.17%EV -4.68%E -2.54%K -5.57%G +0.000%	10.5%	2026-07-30 22:24

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Polymarket	2.04I 49.02%NM 45.31%	1.69I 59.17%NM 54.69%	8.2%	2026-07-31 00:55

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3	Margin ▲	Updated
1xBet	2.12I 47.17%NM 43.81%	1.74I 57.47%NM 53.38%	33.00I 3.03%NM 2.81%	7.7%	2026-07-31 00:58