Language:English
Mason Jones v Axel Sola
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Mason Jones (Local)
Prediction 58.70%1.70fair odd
EV +1.55%
Edge +0.894%
Kelly +2.12%
Growth +0.033%
assuming max odds 1.73
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.83%58.31%58.91%60.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.651.671.7362.50%60.53%60.06%57.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Axel Sola (Visit)
Prediction 41.30%2.42fair odd
EV -0.874%
Edge -0.364%
Kelly -0.625%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.00%41.69%41.09%45.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.262.202.4047.62%44.29%45.45%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Mason Jones (Local): 58.70%; Axel Sola (Visit): 41.30%. For Mason Jones (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.70. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.73, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.55%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betway🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV +1.55%E +0.894%K +2.12%G +0.033% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -13.27%E -6.32%K -12.06%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-20 16:29 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV +1.55%E +0.894%K +2.12%G +0.033% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -13.27%E -6.32%K -12.06%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-20 15:40 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV +0.373%E +0.218%K +0.525%G +0.002% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -9.13%E -4.15%K -7.61%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-21 15:04 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV +0.373%E +0.218%K +0.525%G +0.002% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -9.13%E -4.15%K -7.61%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-21 15:04 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -1.97%E -1.18%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -9.13%E -4.15%K -7.61%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-21 15:15 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -1.97%E -1.18%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -9.13%E -4.15%K -7.61%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-21 15:15 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -1.97%E -1.18%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -9.13%E -4.15%K -7.61%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-21 16:19 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -1.97%E -1.18%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -9.13%E -4.15%K -7.61%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-21 16:39 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -1.97%E -1.18%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -9.13%E -4.15%K -7.61%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-21 16:19 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -1.97%E -1.18%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -9.13%E -4.15%K -7.61%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-21 16:19 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -1.97%E -1.18%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -9.13%E -4.15%K -7.61%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-21 16:19 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -1.97%E -1.18%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -9.13%E -4.15%K -7.61%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-21 16:19 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -1.97%E -1.18%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -9.13%E -4.15%K -7.61%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-21 16:19 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -1.97%E -1.18%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -9.13%E -4.15%K -7.61%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-21 16:19 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -1.97%E -1.18%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -9.13%E -4.15%K -7.61%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-21 16:19 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -1.97%E -1.18%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -9.13%E -4.15%K -7.61%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-21 16:19 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -1.97%E -1.18%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -9.13%E -4.15%K -7.61%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-21 16:19 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -1.97%E -1.18%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -9.13%E -4.15%K -7.61%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-21 16:19 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -1.97%E -1.18%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -9.13%E -4.15%K -7.61%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-21 16:18 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.87%EV -2.56%E -1.54%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 42.13%EV -5.83%E -2.56%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-21 15:14 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.15%E -1.91%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -7.07%E -3.14%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-21 18:59 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.15%E -1.91%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -7.07%E -3.14%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-21 15:14 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -3.15%E -1.91%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -9.13%E -4.15%K -7.61%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-21 12:30 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 59.31%EV -3.74%E -2.28%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 2.39I 41.84%NM 40.69%EV -1.29%E -0.539%K -0.926%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-03-21 19:29 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.29%EV -3.74%E -2.28%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.71%EV -9.13%E -4.15%K -7.61%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-21 19:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 59.45%EV -4.32%E -2.65%K -6.86%G +0.000% | 2.39I 41.84%NM 40.55%EV -1.29%E -0.539%K -0.926%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-03-21 19:24 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -4.32%E -2.65%K -6.86%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -5.00%E -2.18%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-21 19:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -4.91%E -3.03%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV -0.874%E -0.364%K -0.625%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-03-21 19:35 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -4.91%E -3.03%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -2.94%E -1.25%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-21 18:54 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.09%EV -4.91%E -3.03%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 40.91%EV -3.35%E -1.43%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-21 19:00 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.91%E -3.03%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.00%E -2.18%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-21 19:30 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -5.50%E -3.41%K -9.01%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV -0.874%E -0.364%K -0.625%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-03-21 19:31 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -5.50%E -3.41%K -9.01%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -2.94%E -1.25%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-21 19:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -6.08%E -3.80%K -10.14%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -0.874%E -0.364%K -0.625%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-21 19:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -6.08%E -3.80%K -10.14%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -2.94%E -1.25%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-21 19:20 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -6.08%E -3.80%K -10.14%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -2.94%E -1.25%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-21 18:59 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -6.08%E -3.80%K -10.14%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -2.94%E -1.25%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-21 18:59 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -6.08%E -3.80%K -10.14%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -2.94%E -1.25%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-21 18:59 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.68I 59.52%NM 59.62% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 40.38% | -0.2% | 2026-03-21 19:24 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.68I 59.52%NM 59.22% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.78% | 0.5% | 2026-03-21 19:24 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.68I 59.52%NM 59.22% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.78% | 0.5% | 2026-03-21 19:24 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.68I 59.52%NM 59.22% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.78% | 0.5% | 2026-03-21 19:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.66I 60.24%NM 59.90% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 40.10% | 0.6% | 2026-03-21 19:35 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.65I 60.61%NM 60.05% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 39.95% | 0.9% | 2026-03-21 19:35 |
| Novig◎ | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.29% | 2.49I 40.16%NM 39.71% | 1.1% | 2026-03-21 19:34 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.64I 60.98%NM 59.80% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.20% | 2.0% | 2026-03-21 19:24 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.87% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.29% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.84% | 8.5% | 2026-03-21 19:00 |