Language:English
Marwan Rahiki v Ollie Schmid
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Marwan Rahiki (Local)
Prediction 84.04%1.19fair odd
EV -1.67%
Edge -1.43%
Kelly -9.82%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.17
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
80.83%83.98%84.03%85.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.091.131.131.1791.74%88.19%88.50%85.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Ollie Schmid (Visit)
Prediction 15.96%6.27fair odd
EV +3.71%
Edge +0.571%
Kelly +0.675%
Growth +0.025%
assuming max odds 6.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.59%16.02%15.97%19.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.856.026.156.5020.62%16.60%16.26%15.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Marwan Rahiki (Local): 84.04%; Ollie Schmid (Visit): 15.96%. For Ollie Schmid (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.27. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.71%.
Sportsbook Odds (36 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TAB🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -6.71%E -6.05%K -61.01%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV +3.71%E +0.571%K +0.675%G +0.025% | 5.5% | 2026-05-02 08:36 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.22%EV -6.71%E -6.05%K -61.01%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.78%EV +2.12%E +0.331%K +0.392%G +0.008% | 5.7% | 2026-05-01 21:45 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -5.03%E -4.45%K -38.69%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV -0.275%E -0.044%K -0.052%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-01 08:04 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -5.03%E -4.45%K -38.69%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV -0.275%E -0.044%K -0.052%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-01 08:04 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -5.03%E -4.45%K -38.69%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV -0.275%E -0.044%K -0.052%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-01 08:04 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -5.03%E -4.45%K -38.69%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV -0.275%E -0.044%K -0.052%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-01 08:04 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -5.03%E -4.45%K -38.69%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV -0.275%E -0.044%K -0.052%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-01 08:04 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -5.03%E -4.45%K -38.69%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV -0.275%E -0.044%K -0.052%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-01 08:04 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -5.03%E -4.45%K -38.69%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV -0.275%E -0.044%K -0.052%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-01 08:04 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -5.03%E -4.45%K -38.69%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV -0.275%E -0.044%K -0.052%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-01 08:04 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -5.03%E -4.45%K -38.69%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV -0.275%E -0.044%K -0.052%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-01 14:44 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -5.03%E -4.45%K -38.69%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV -0.275%E -0.044%K -0.052%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-01 10:24 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -5.03%E -4.45%K -38.69%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV -0.275%E -0.044%K -0.052%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-01 10:24 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -5.03%E -4.45%K -38.69%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV -0.275%E -0.044%K -0.052%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-01 10:24 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -5.03%E -4.45%K -38.69%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV -0.275%E -0.044%K -0.052%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-01 10:24 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -5.03%E -4.45%K -38.69%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV -0.275%E -0.044%K -0.052%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-01 10:24 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.58%EV -5.03%E -4.45%K -38.69%G +0.000% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.42%EV -1.07%E -0.173%K -0.206%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-02 02:19 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.58%EV -5.03%E -4.45%K -38.69%G +0.000% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.42%EV -1.07%E -0.173%K -0.206%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-02 02:19 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 84.84%EV -8.39%E -7.70%K -93.25%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.16%EV -2.67%E -0.437%K -0.523%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-02 12:08 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -4.19%E -3.68%K -29.93%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV -4.26%E -0.711%K -0.853%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-02 04:05 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -4.19%E -3.68%K -29.93%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV -4.26%E -0.711%K -0.853%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-02 02:20 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -4.19%E -3.68%K -29.93%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV -4.26%E -0.711%K -0.853%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-02 07:19 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -4.19%E -3.68%K -29.93%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV -4.26%E -0.711%K -0.853%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-02 12:09 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -5.03%E -4.45%K -38.69%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -4.26%E -0.711%K -0.853%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-02 04:05 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -5.03%E -4.45%K -38.69%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -4.26%E -0.711%K -0.853%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-01 15:34 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -5.03%E -4.45%K -38.69%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -4.26%E -0.711%K -0.853%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-02 03:45 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -6.71%E -6.05%K -61.01%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -4.26%E -0.711%K -0.853%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-02 12:15 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 83.24%EV -1.67%E -1.43%K -9.82%G +0.000% | 5.81I 17.21%NM 16.76%EV -7.30%E -1.26%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-05-02 12:10 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 83.21%EV -2.51%E -2.16%K -15.68%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.79%EV -8.25%E -1.44%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-05-02 12:10 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.33%EV -3.35%E -2.91%K -22.33%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.67%EV -8.25%E -1.44%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-01 23:19 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.33%EV -3.35%E -2.91%K -22.33%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.67%EV -8.25%E -1.44%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-02 10:55 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.71%EV -2.51%E -2.16%K -15.68%G +0.000% | 5.55I 18.02%NM 17.29%EV -11.44%E -2.06%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-02 12:11 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -3.35%E -2.91%K -22.33%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -12.24%E -2.23%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-01 23:19 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -4.19%E -3.68%K -29.93%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -12.24%E -2.23%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-02 04:05 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -4.19%E -3.68%K -29.93%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -12.24%E -2.23%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-02 08:50 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.83%EV -3.35%E -2.91%K -22.33%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.17%EV -22.61%E -4.66%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-01 23:09 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.17I 85.47%NM 85.68% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 14.32% | -0.2% | 2026-05-02 02:34 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.17I 85.47%NM 84.94% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 15.06% | 0.6% | 2026-05-02 12:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.17I 85.47%NM 84.94% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 15.06% | 0.6% | 2026-05-02 12:15 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.19I 84.03%NM 83.17% | 5.88I 17.01%NM 16.83% | 1.0% | 2026-05-02 12:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.17I 85.47%NM 84.54% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.46% | 1.1% | 2026-05-02 12:10 |
| Novig◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 83.21% | 5.85I 17.09%NM 16.79% | 1.8% | 2026-05-02 12:15 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 82.85% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.15% | 2.3% | 2026-05-02 12:15 |