Language:English
Marwan Rahiki v Harry Hardwick
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Marwan Rahiki (Local)
Prediction 70.51%1.42fair odd
EV -2.69%
Edge -1.95%
Kelly -7.09%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.38
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.81%70.65%70.50%72.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.301.351.361.3876.92%73.82%73.53%72.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Harry Hardwick (Visit)
Prediction 29.49%3.39fair odd
EV +3.21%
Edge +0.916%
Kelly +1.28%
Growth +0.041%
assuming max odds 3.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.08%29.35%29.50%31.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.973.193.133.5033.67%31.37%32.00%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Marwan Rahiki (Local): 70.51%; Harry Hardwick (Visit): 29.49%. For Harry Hardwick (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.39. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.21%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caesars🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -7.63%E -5.82%K -24.61%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV +3.21%E +0.916%K +1.28%G +0.041% | 4.9% | 2026-03-15 01:07 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -8.33%E -6.41%K -27.78%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV +3.21%E +0.916%K +1.28%G +0.041% | 5.5% | 2026-03-15 01:00 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.23%EV -6.22%E -4.68%K -18.84%G +0.000% | 3.46I 28.90%NM 27.77%EV +2.03%E +0.586%K +0.824%G +0.017% | 4.1% | 2026-03-15 01:10 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 72.03%EV -5.51%E -4.11%K -16.22%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.97%EV +1.73%E +0.502%K +0.707%G +0.012% | 3.6% | 2026-03-15 00:50 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.18%EV -6.22%E -4.68%K -18.84%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.82%EV +1.73%E +0.502%K +0.707%G +0.012% | 4.2% | 2026-03-15 01:10 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 71.61%EV -4.10%E -3.02%K -11.40%G +0.000% | 3.43I 29.15%NM 28.39%EV +1.14%E +0.333%K +0.470%G +0.005% | 2.7% | 2026-03-15 01:10 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.73%EV -5.51%E -4.11%K -16.22%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.27%EV +0.257%E +0.076%K +0.107%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-15 01:04 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -6.22%E -4.68%K -18.84%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -1.22%E -0.363%K -0.518%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-15 00:50 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -4.10%E -3.02%K -11.40%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -4.17%E -1.28%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-08 05:48 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -4.81%E -3.56%K -13.74%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -4.17%E -1.28%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-15 01:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -4.10%E -3.02%K -11.40%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -5.64%E -1.76%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-15 01:05 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -4.10%E -3.02%K -11.40%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -5.64%E -1.76%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-15 01:05 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -4.10%E -3.02%K -11.40%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -5.64%E -1.76%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-15 01:05 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%EV -5.51%E -4.11%K -16.22%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV -5.64%E -1.76%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-15 01:10 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.98%EV -4.10%E -3.02%K -11.40%G +0.000% | 3.17I 31.55%NM 30.02%EV -6.52%E -2.06%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-13 17:50 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -2.69%E -1.95%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -7.11%E -2.26%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-14 01:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -2.69%E -1.95%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -7.11%E -2.26%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-14 15:35 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -2.69%E -1.95%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -7.11%E -2.26%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-14 15:35 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -4.10%E -3.02%K -11.40%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -7.11%E -2.26%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-14 19:40 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -3.40%E -2.48%K -9.18%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -8.59%E -2.77%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-08 05:49 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -3.40%E -2.48%K -9.18%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -8.59%E -2.77%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-08 05:49 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -3.40%E -2.48%K -9.18%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -8.59%E -2.77%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-08 05:49 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.10%E -3.02%K -11.40%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -8.59%E -2.77%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-10 15:45 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.10%E -3.02%K -11.40%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -8.59%E -2.77%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-08 05:49 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.10%E -3.02%K -11.40%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -8.59%E -2.77%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-08 05:49 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.10%E -3.02%K -11.40%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -8.59%E -2.77%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-08 05:49 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.10%E -3.02%K -11.40%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -8.59%E -2.77%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-08 05:49 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.10%E -3.02%K -11.40%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -8.59%E -2.77%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-08 05:49 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.10%E -3.02%K -11.40%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -8.59%E -2.77%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-08 06:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.10%E -3.02%K -11.40%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -8.59%E -2.77%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-08 05:59 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.10%E -3.02%K -11.40%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -8.59%E -2.77%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-08 05:59 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.10%E -3.02%K -11.40%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -8.59%E -2.77%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-08 05:59 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.10%E -3.02%K -11.40%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -8.59%E -2.77%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-08 08:34 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.10%E -3.02%K -11.40%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -8.59%E -2.77%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-08 14:19 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.16%EV -4.10%E -3.02%K -11.40%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.84%EV -10.06%E -3.30%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-14 16:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -4.10%E -3.02%K -11.40%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -11.54%E -3.85%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-13 17:50 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -4.10%E -3.02%K -11.40%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -11.54%E -3.85%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-14 21:19 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 68.91%EV -5.51%E -4.11%K -16.22%G +0.000% | 2.97I 33.67%NM 31.09%EV -12.42%E -4.18%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-15 01:03 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.38I 72.46%NM 72.29% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.71% | 0.2% | 2026-03-15 01:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.36I 73.53%NM 73.12% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.88% | 0.6% | 2026-03-15 01:10 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.37I 72.99%NM 72.27% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 27.73% | 1.0% | 2026-03-15 01:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.27% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.73% | 1.1% | 2026-03-15 01:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.34I 74.63%NM 73.41% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.59% | 1.7% | 2026-03-15 01:10 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.36I 73.53%NM 72.30% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.70% | 1.7% | 2026-03-15 01:10 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.32I 75.76%NM 73.96% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.04% | 2.4% | 2026-03-15 01:10 |
| Novig◎ | 1.35I 74.07%NM 72.05% | 3.48I 28.74%NM 27.95% | 2.8% | 2026-03-15 01:10 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.67% | 3.17I 31.55%NM 29.46% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.87% | 7.1% | 2026-03-15 00:59 |