The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Marvin Vettori v Ismail Naurdiev

Kickoff: 2026-10-03 20:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

33 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Marvin Vettori (Local)

Prediction 46.01%2.17fair odd
EV -1.07%
Edge -0.498%
Kelly -0.932%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.01%46.01%46.05%47.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.852.052.052.1554.05%48.70%48.78%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ismail Naurdiev (Visit)

Prediction 53.99%1.85fair odd
EV -1.74%
Edge -0.958%
Kelly -2.13%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.82

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.49%53.99%53.95%55.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.651.761.771.8260.61%56.81%56.50%54.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Marvin Vettori (Local): 46.01%; Ismail Naurdiev (Visit): 53.99%. For Marvin Vettori (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.17. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.15, with an expected value of -1.07%; they did not produce positive expected value.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (33 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
NordicBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -1.07%E -0.498%K -0.932%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -6.06%E -3.48%K -8.19%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-01 13:45
Betr (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -1.07%E -0.498%K -0.932%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -8.76%E -5.18%K -12.70%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-03 18:35
Coolbet🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 45.10%EV -1.99%E -0.935%K -1.76%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.90%EV -5.52%E -3.16%K -7.36%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-28 11:34
Betsson🎯2.11I 47.39%NM 44.76%EV -2.91%E -1.38%K -2.62%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.24%EV -7.68%E -4.49%K -10.82%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-01 13:45
Caesars🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -3.37%E -1.61%K -3.07%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -4.44%E -2.51%K -5.77%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-03 19:06
DraftKings🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -3.37%E -1.61%K -3.07%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -4.44%E -2.51%K -5.77%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-03 20:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -3.37%E -1.61%K -3.07%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -5.52%E -3.16%K -7.36%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-03 20:25
Bet Right🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -3.37%E -1.61%K -3.07%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -6.06%E -3.48%K -8.19%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-03 02:30
BetMGM🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -3.37%E -1.61%K -3.07%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -6.06%E -3.48%K -8.19%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-03 20:25
TAB🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -3.37%E -1.61%K -3.07%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -7.14%E -4.15%K -9.92%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-30 01:58
Sky Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -3.37%E -1.61%K -3.07%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -9.84%E -5.89%K -14.69%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-03 20:05
Pinnacle🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 46.67%EV -4.29%E -2.06%K -3.97%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 53.33%EV -1.74%E -0.958%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.0%2026-10-03 20:20
ReBet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 46.25%EV -4.29%E -2.06%K -3.97%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.75%EV -3.36%E -1.88%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-03 19:45
FanDuel🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 46.25%EV -4.29%E -2.06%K -3.97%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.75%EV -3.36%E -1.88%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-03 20:25
Marathon Bet🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 44.65%EV -4.75%E -2.30%K -4.44%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.35%EV -9.84%E -5.89%K -14.69%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-01 17:35
BetOnline.ag🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 47.03%EV -5.67%E -2.77%K -5.40%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.97%EV -1.74%E -0.958%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-03 20:25
Bovada🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 47.03%EV -5.67%E -2.77%K -5.40%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.97%EV -1.74%E -0.958%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-03 20:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -5.67%E -2.77%K -5.40%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -4.44%E -2.51%K -5.77%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-03 20:25
888sport🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -5.67%E -2.77%K -5.40%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -5.52%E -3.16%K -7.36%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-03 20:25
Unibet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -7.05%E -3.49%K -6.91%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -3.36%E -1.88%K -4.26%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-03 20:15
LiveScore Bet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -7.05%E -3.49%K -6.91%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -3.36%E -1.88%K -4.26%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-03 20:15
Virgin Bet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -7.05%E -3.49%K -6.91%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -3.36%E -1.88%K -4.26%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-03 20:15
BetRivers🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -7.05%E -3.49%K -6.91%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -3.36%E -1.88%K -4.26%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-03 20:15
TABtouch🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -7.05%E -3.49%K -6.91%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -3.36%E -1.88%K -4.26%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-03 20:15
ATG (SE)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -7.05%E -3.49%K -6.91%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -3.36%E -1.88%K -4.26%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-03 20:15
Bally Bet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -7.05%E -3.49%K -6.91%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -3.36%E -1.88%K -4.26%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-03 20:15
betPARX🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -7.05%E -3.49%K -6.91%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -3.36%E -1.88%K -4.26%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-03 20:15
Unibet (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -7.97%E -3.99%K -7.97%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -2.28%E -1.26%K -2.82%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-03 20:25
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.97%E -3.99%K -7.97%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -2.82%E -1.57%K -3.53%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-03 20:15
BetAnything🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -7.97%E -3.99%K -7.97%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -4.44%E -2.51%K -5.77%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-03 20:00
Paddy Power🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -7.97%E -3.99%K -7.97%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -6.60%E -3.82%K -9.05%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-03 20:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -7.97%E -3.99%K -7.97%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -6.60%E -3.82%K -9.05%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-03 20:25
Grosvenor🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.14%EV -14.88%E -8.04%K -17.50%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 52.86%EV -10.92%E -6.62%K -16.80%G +0.000%14.7%2026-10-03 20:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (7)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎2.26I 44.25%NM 44.20%1.79I 55.87%NM 55.80%0.1%2026-10-03 20:23
Matchbook◎2.16I 46.30%NM 46.00%1.84I 54.35%NM 54.00%0.6%2026-10-03 20:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.16I 46.30%NM 46.00%1.84I 54.35%NM 54.00%0.6%2026-10-03 20:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.18I 45.87%NM 45.36%1.81I 55.25%NM 54.64%1.1%2026-10-03 20:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.18I 45.87%NM 45.36%1.81I 55.25%NM 54.64%1.1%2026-10-03 20:25
ProphetX◎2.15I 46.51%NM 45.57%1.80I 55.56%NM 54.43%2.1%2026-10-03 20:25
Novig◎2.08I 48.08%NM 46.80%1.83I 54.64%NM 53.20%2.7%2026-10-03 20:25

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.50%1.71I 58.48%NM 53.93%36.00I 2.78%NM 2.56%8.4%2026-10-01 17:34