Language:English
Marlon Vera v Charles Jourdain
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Marlon Vera (Local)
Prediction 35.87%2.79fair odd
EV +2.22%
Edge +0.779%
Kelly +1.20%
Growth +0.027%
assuming max odds 2.85
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.57%35.93%35.89%37.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.662.662.8540.82%37.62%37.59%35.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Charles Jourdain (Visit)
Prediction 64.13%1.56fair odd
EV -1.23%
Edge -0.802%
Kelly -2.29%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.54
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.53%64.07%64.11%66.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.351.481.481.5474.07%67.46%67.57%64.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Marlon Vera (Local): 35.87%; Charles Jourdain (Visit): 64.13%. For Marlon Vera (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.79. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.85, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.22%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (33 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV +2.22%E +0.779%K +1.20%G +0.027% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -7.65%E -5.31%K -17.38%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-20 00:30 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV +0.427%E +0.152%K +0.237%G +0.001% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -8.93%E -6.29%K -21.26%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-20 00:29 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -3.16%E -1.17%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -5.08%E -3.43%K -10.59%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-18 07:30 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -3.16%E -1.17%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -5.08%E -3.43%K -10.59%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-19 14:01 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -3.16%E -1.17%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -5.72%E -3.89%K -12.18%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-18 07:35 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -3.16%E -1.17%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -5.72%E -3.89%K -12.18%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-18 07:34 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -3.16%E -1.17%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -5.72%E -3.89%K -12.18%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-18 07:35 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -3.16%E -1.17%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -5.72%E -3.89%K -12.18%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-18 07:35 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -3.16%E -1.17%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -5.72%E -3.89%K -12.18%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-18 07:33 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -3.16%E -1.17%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -5.72%E -3.89%K -12.18%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-18 07:35 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -3.16%E -1.17%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -5.72%E -3.89%K -12.18%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-18 07:35 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -3.16%E -1.17%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -5.72%E -3.89%K -12.18%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-18 07:35 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -3.16%E -1.17%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -5.72%E -3.89%K -12.18%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-19 14:02 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.68I 37.31%NM 35.89%EV -3.88%E -1.45%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.11%EV -3.80%E -2.53%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-19 19:04 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.68I 37.31%NM 35.89%EV -3.88%E -1.45%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.11%EV -3.80%E -2.53%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-20 00:39 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.67I 37.45%NM 35.51%EV -4.24%E -1.59%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.49%EV -5.72%E -3.89%K -12.18%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-20 00:39 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.66I 37.59%NM 36.52%EV -4.59%E -1.73%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 63.48%EV -1.88%E -1.23%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-09-19 23:35 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -4.95%E -1.87%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.08%E -3.43%K -10.59%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-19 14:01 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -4.95%E -1.87%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.08%E -3.43%K -10.59%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-19 14:02 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -4.95%E -1.87%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -5.72%E -3.89%K -12.18%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-19 14:01 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.64I 37.88%NM 36.39%EV -5.31%E -2.01%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.61%EV -3.16%E -2.09%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-19 18:05 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.78%EV -5.67%E -2.16%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 63.22%EV -1.88%E -1.23%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-09-19 23:43 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -5.67%E -2.16%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -3.80%E -2.53%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-19 14:02 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -6.03%E -2.30%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -3.80%E -2.53%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-19 14:02 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.31%EV -6.03%E -2.30%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 64.69%EV -8.29%E -5.80%K -19.28%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-09-19 14:01 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.61I 38.31%NM 36.80%EV -6.39%E -2.45%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 63.20%EV -2.52%E -1.66%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-19 19:40 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -6.75%E -2.59%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -1.88%E -1.23%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-19 18:04 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -6.75%E -2.59%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -1.88%E -1.23%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-20 00:34 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.75%E -2.59%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -3.80%E -2.53%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-19 23:29 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -6.75%E -2.59%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -5.08%E -3.43%K -10.59%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-19 23:49 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.57I 38.91%NM 37.47%EV -7.82%E -3.04%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.53%EV -1.23%E -0.802%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-20 00:38 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -8.54%E -3.35%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -2.52%E -1.66%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-19 19:45 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 35.53%EV -12.13%E -4.95%K -8.36%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 64.47%EV -13.42%E -9.94%K -38.34%G +0.000% | 14.9% | 2026-09-18 07:35 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 2.78I 35.97%NM 35.94% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 64.06% | 0.1% | 2026-09-19 23:09 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.72I 36.76%NM 36.45% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 63.55% | 0.9% | 2026-09-20 00:39 |
| Novig◎ | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.62% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 63.38% | 1.1% | 2026-09-20 00:19 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.62% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 63.38% | 1.1% | 2026-09-19 23:19 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.72I 36.76%NM 36.30% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 63.70% | 1.3% | 2026-09-20 00:39 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.72I 36.76%NM 36.15% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 63.85% | 1.7% | 2026-09-20 00:39 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.74I 36.50%NM 35.83% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 64.17% | 1.9% | 2026-09-20 00:39 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.72I 36.76%NM 36.00% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 64.00% | 2.1% | 2026-09-20 00:39 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.71I 36.90%NM 33.96% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.48% | 36.00I 2.78%NM 2.56% | 8.6% | 2026-09-19 14:01 |