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Marlon Moraes v Merab Dvalishvili

2026-11-14 11:00 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

1 sportsbook (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Marlon Moraes (Local)

Prediction 10.36%9.65fair odd
EV -6.77%
Edge -0.753%
Kelly -0.847%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 9.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.36%10.36%10.36%10.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
9.009.009.009.0011.11%11.11%11.11%11.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Merab Dvalishvili (Visit)

Prediction 89.64%1.12fair odd
EV -6.77%
Edge -6.51%
Kelly -169.32%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.04

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
89.64%89.64%89.64%89.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.041.041.041.0496.15%96.15%96.15%96.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Marlon Moraes (Local): 10.36%; Merab Dvalishvili (Visit): 89.64%. For Merab Dvalishvili (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.12. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 1.04, with an expected value of -6.77%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (1 sportsbook)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.36%EV -6.77%E -0.753%K -0.847%G +0.000%1.04I 96.15%NM 89.64%EV -6.77%E -6.51%K -169.32%G +0.000%7.3%2026-11-13 00:07
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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