The School of Odds

Mark Vologdin v Josias Musasa

2026-08-01 22:00 UTC — MMA

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Head to Head

1 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Mark Vologdin (Local)

Prediction 44.73%2.24fair odd
EV -3.83%
Edge -1.78%
Kelly -3.33%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.73%44.73%44.73%44.73%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.152.152.152.1547%47%47%47%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Josias Musasa (Visit)

Prediction 55.27%1.81fair odd
EV -3.83%
Edge -2.20%
Kelly -5.18%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.27%55.27%55.27%55.27%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.741.741.741.7457%57%57%57%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

1 bookmaker(s) offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (1 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -3.83%E -1.78%K -3.33%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -3.83%E -2.20%K -5.18%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-24 01:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Polymarket2.00I 50.00%NM 46.24%1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%8.1%2026-07-24 05:30

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet2.13I 46.95%NM 43.83%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.34%33.00I 3.03%NM 2.83%7.1%2026-07-24 01:50