Language:English
Mark Vologdin v John Castaneda
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Mark Vologdin (Local)
Prediction 40.12%2.49fair odd
EV +6.31%
Edge +2.38%
Kelly +3.82%
Growth +0.241%
assuming max odds 2.65
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.37%40.47%40.10%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.852.372.402.6554.05%42.17%41.67%37.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
John Castaneda (Visit)
Prediction 59.88%1.67fair odd
EV +10.79%
Edge +5.83%
Kelly +12.69%
Growth +1.37%
assuming max odds 1.85
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.00%59.53%59.90%64.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.451.571.581.8568.97%63.67%63.29%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Mark Vologdin (Local): 40.12%; John Castaneda (Visit): 59.88%. For John Castaneda (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.67. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.85, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.79%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -25.79%E -13.94%K -30.34%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV +10.79%E +5.83%K +12.69%G +1.37% | 8.1% | 2026-04-18 21:30 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -25.79%E -13.94%K -30.34%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV +10.79%E +5.83%K +12.69%G +1.37% | 8.1% | 2026-04-18 21:30 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -11.75%E -5.34%K -9.79%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV +0.007%E +0.004%K +0.011%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-18 08:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -9.74%E -4.33%K -7.79%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -1.19%E -0.722%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-18 20:20 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.42I 41.32%NM 40.10%EV -2.92%E -1.21%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.90%EV -2.99%E -1.84%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-04-18 21:28 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.42I 41.32%NM 40.10%EV -2.92%E -1.21%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.90%EV -2.99%E -1.84%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-04-18 21:20 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.34I 42.74%NM 40.91%EV -6.13%E -2.62%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.09%EV -2.99%E -1.84%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-18 21:30 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.31I 43.29%NM 41.22%EV -7.33%E -3.17%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.78%EV -2.99%E -1.84%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-18 21:10 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -9.74%E -4.33%K -7.79%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -2.99%E -1.84%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-18 21:10 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -9.74%E -4.33%K -7.79%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -2.99%E -1.84%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-18 21:10 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -5.73%E -2.44%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -3.59%E -2.23%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-18 21:28 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -6.93%E -2.99%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -3.59%E -2.23%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-18 21:20 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.39%EV -8.54%E -3.74%K -6.67%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.61%EV -3.59%E -2.23%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-18 21:30 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -3.72%E -1.55%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -4.18%E -2.62%K -6.97%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-18 21:10 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.73%E -2.44%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.18%E -2.62%K -6.97%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-18 21:05 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.34I 42.74%NM 40.61%EV -6.13%E -2.62%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.39%EV -4.18%E -2.62%K -6.97%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-18 21:29 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -7.73%E -3.36%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -4.18%E -2.62%K -6.97%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-18 21:25 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.36%EV -1.72%E -0.701%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.64%EV -4.78%E -3.01%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-04-18 21:19 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -5.73%E -2.44%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -5.38%E -3.41%K -9.28%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-18 21:15 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -1.72%E -0.701%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -5.98%E -3.81%K -10.49%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-18 21:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -1.72%E -0.701%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -5.98%E -3.81%K -10.49%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-18 21:00 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -5.73%E -2.44%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.98%E -3.81%K -10.49%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-18 21:25 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -3.72%E -1.55%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -7.78%E -5.05%K -14.40%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-18 21:30 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV +0.289%E +0.116%K +0.193%G +0.001% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -9.57%E -6.34%K -18.77%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-18 21:30 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV +0.289%E +0.116%K +0.193%G +0.001% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -10.17%E -6.78%K -20.35%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-18 21:30 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.34%EV +0.289%E +0.116%K +0.193%G +0.001% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 62.66%EV -10.77%E -7.23%K -21.98%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-18 21:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.34%EV +0.289%E +0.116%K +0.193%G +0.001% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 62.66%EV -10.77%E -7.23%K -21.98%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-18 21:30 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.34%EV +0.289%E +0.116%K +0.193%G +0.001% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 62.66%EV -10.77%E -7.23%K -21.98%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-18 21:30 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.34%EV +0.289%E +0.116%K +0.193%G +0.001% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 62.66%EV -10.77%E -7.23%K -21.98%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-18 21:30 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.34%EV +0.289%E +0.116%K +0.193%G +0.001% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 62.66%EV -10.77%E -7.23%K -21.98%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-18 21:30 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.66%EV -1.72%E -0.701%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.34%EV -11.37%E -7.68%K -23.69%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-18 21:30 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.50%EV -1.72%E -0.701%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 62.50%EV -11.97%E -8.14%K -25.47%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-18 21:30 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.50%EV -1.72%E -0.701%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 62.50%EV -11.97%E -8.14%K -25.47%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-18 21:30 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.50%EV -1.72%E -0.701%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 62.50%EV -11.97%E -8.14%K -25.47%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-18 21:30 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.50%EV -1.72%E -0.701%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 62.50%EV -11.97%E -8.14%K -25.47%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-18 21:30 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV +6.31%E +2.38%K +3.82%G +0.241% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%EV -13.17%E -9.08%K -29.26%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-18 21:30 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.66%EV -3.72%E -1.55%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 62.34%EV -13.17%E -9.08%K -29.26%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-04-18 21:30 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 2.65I 37.74%NM 37.79% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 62.21% | -0.2% | 2026-04-18 21:23 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.52I 39.68%NM 39.42% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.58% | 0.7% | 2026-04-18 21:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.52I 39.68%NM 39.42% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.58% | 0.7% | 2026-04-18 21:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.52I 39.68%NM 39.28% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 60.72% | 1.0% | 2026-04-18 21:30 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.52I 39.68%NM 39.28% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 60.72% | 1.0% | 2026-04-18 21:28 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.44I 40.98%NM 39.45% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.55% | 3.9% | 2026-04-18 21:30 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.32I 43.10%NM 41.12% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.88% | 4.8% | 2026-04-18 21:29 |
| Novig◎ | 2.34I 42.74%NM 29.94% | 1.00I 100.00%NM 70.06% | 42.7% | 2026-04-18 21:30 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.89% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.86% | 41.00I 2.44%NM 2.25% | 8.5% | 2026-04-18 21:25 |