Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Mariusz Joniak v Karol Durszlewicz

Kickoff: 2026-02-21 18:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (0 in analysis )

Mariusz Joniak (Local)

Prediction 0.00%fair odd
EV -100.00%
Edge -55.56%
Kelly -125.00%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.48%0.00%0.00%51.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.801.801.8055.56%55.56%55.56%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Karol Durszlewicz (Visit)

Prediction 0.00%fair odd
EV -100.00%
Edge -52.36%
Kelly -109.89%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.52%0.00%0.00%48.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.911.911.911.9152.36%52.36%52.36%52.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Mariusz Joniak (Local): 0.00%; Karol Durszlewicz (Visit): 0.00%.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Grosvenor🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%7.9%2026-02-21 17:15
Unibet (NL)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%7.9%2026-02-21 17:15
Unibet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%7.9%2026-02-21 17:15
LeoVegas🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%7.9%2026-02-21 17:15
Unibet (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%7.9%2026-02-21 17:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%7.9%2026-02-21 17:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.