Language:English
Mario Pinto v Ryan Spann
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Mario Pinto (Local)
Prediction 73.42%1.36fair odd
EV +0.581%
Edge +0.424%
Kelly +1.57%
Growth +0.009%
assuming max odds 1.37
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
69.00%73.46%73.32%74.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.201.301.301.3783.33%77.04%76.92%72.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Ryan Spann (Visit)
Prediction 26.58%3.76fair odd
EV +2.08%
Edge +0.542%
Kelly +0.732%
Growth +0.015%
assuming max odds 3.84
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.15%26.54%26.68%31.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.553.553.8432.79%28.20%28.17%26.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Mario Pinto (Local): 73.42%; Ryan Spann (Visit): 26.58%. For Ryan Spann (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.76. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.84, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.08%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (36 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.85%EV -5.29%E -4.10%K -18.25%G +0.000% | 3.84I 26.04%NM 25.15%EV +2.08%E +0.542%K +0.732%G +0.015% | 3.6% | 2026-09-04 14:00 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.46%EV -5.29%E -4.10%K -18.25%G +0.000% | 3.76I 26.60%NM 25.54%EV -0.046%E -0.012%K -0.017%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-04 14:34 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 74.00%EV -4.56%E -3.51%K -15.19%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.00%EV -1.64%E -0.444%K -0.608%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-04 13:49 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 74.00%EV -4.56%E -3.51%K -15.19%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.00%EV -1.64%E -0.444%K -0.608%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-03 22:42 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.15%EV -5.29%E -4.10%K -18.25%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.85%EV -1.64%E -0.444%K -0.608%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-03 17:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.15%EV -5.29%E -4.10%K -18.25%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.85%EV -1.64%E -0.444%K -0.608%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-03 17:00 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.69%EV -3.82%E -2.92%K -12.34%G +0.000% | 3.67I 27.25%NM 26.31%EV -2.44%E -0.665%K -0.913%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-09-04 12:40 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -5.29%E -4.10%K -18.25%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -2.97%E -0.814%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -6.03%E -4.71%K -21.52%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.96%EV -2.97%E -0.814%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-04 13:50 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -6.76%E -5.32%K -25.04%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81%EV -2.97%E -0.814%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-04 13:49 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.73%EV -5.29%E -4.10%K -18.25%G +0.000% | 3.62I 27.62%NM 26.27%EV -3.77%E -1.04%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-04 13:09 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -3.82%E -2.92%K -12.34%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -4.30%E -1.19%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-03 18:14 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -3.82%E -2.92%K -12.34%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -4.30%E -1.19%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-03 22:14 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -3.82%E -2.92%K -12.34%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -4.30%E -1.19%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-04 13:40 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -4.56%E -3.51%K -15.19%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV -4.30%E -1.19%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-03 22:35 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -4.56%E -3.51%K -15.19%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -5.63%E -1.59%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-03 22:14 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -4.56%E -3.51%K -15.19%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -5.63%E -1.59%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-03 22:14 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -4.56%E -3.51%K -15.19%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -5.63%E -1.59%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-03 22:14 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -4.56%E -3.51%K -15.19%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -5.63%E -1.59%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-03 22:14 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -4.56%E -3.51%K -15.19%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -5.63%E -1.59%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-03 22:14 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -4.56%E -3.51%K -15.19%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -5.63%E -1.59%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-03 22:15 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -4.56%E -3.51%K -15.19%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -5.63%E -1.59%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-03 22:15 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -4.56%E -3.51%K -15.19%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -5.63%E -1.59%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-03 22:14 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -3.82%E -2.92%K -12.34%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -6.96%E -1.99%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-04 13:10 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -3.82%E -2.92%K -12.34%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -6.96%E -1.99%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-03 22:25 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.56%E -3.51%K -15.19%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -6.96%E -1.99%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-03 05:45 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.56%E -3.51%K -15.19%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -6.96%E -1.99%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-03 21:15 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.56%E -3.51%K -15.19%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -6.96%E -1.99%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-03 23:59 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.48%EV -3.82%E -2.92%K -12.34%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.52%EV -8.29%E -2.40%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-03 18:25 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -4.56%E -3.51%K -15.19%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -8.29%E -2.40%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-04 13:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -4.56%E -3.51%K -15.19%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -9.62%E -2.83%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-04 13:09 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -4.56%E -3.51%K -15.19%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -9.62%E -2.83%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-04 13:10 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -4.56%E -3.51%K -15.19%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -9.62%E -2.83%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-04 13:09 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -4.56%E -3.51%K -15.19%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -9.62%E -2.83%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-03 22:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 72.41%EV -11.90%E -9.92%K -59.50%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 27.59%EV -16.26%E -5.16%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 15.1% | 2026-09-03 22:14 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.00%EV +0.581%E +0.424%K +1.57%G +0.009% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.00%EV -18.92%E -6.20%K -9.23%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-29 09:15 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 1.32I 75.76%NM 74.47% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.53% | 1.7% | 2026-09-04 13:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.32I 75.76%NM 73.96% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.04% | 2.4% | 2026-09-04 12:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.32I 75.76%NM 73.96% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.04% | 2.4% | 2026-09-04 12:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.32I 75.76%NM 73.96% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.04% | 2.4% | 2026-09-04 12:30 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.59% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.41% | 3.7% | 2026-09-04 11:00 |
| Novig◎ | 1.30I 76.92%NM 74.00% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.00% | 4.0% | 2026-09-04 13:50 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53% | 4.7% | 2026-09-04 13:10 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.89% | 3.38I 29.59%NM 27.27% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.84% | 8.5% | 2026-09-03 22:20 |