Language:English
Mario Pinto v Felipe Franco
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Mario Pinto (Local)
Prediction 92.72%1.08fair odd
EV +2.92%
Edge +2.63%
Kelly +26.58%
Growth +0.777%
assuming max odds 1.11
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
84.51%91.60%93.09%97.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.001.031.021.11100.00%96.91%98.04%90.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Felipe Franco (Visit)
Prediction 7.28%13.74fair odd
EV +147.37%
Edge +4.33%
Kelly +4.47%
Growth +6.58%
assuming max odds 34.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.86%8.40%6.91%15.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.0014.3612.0034.0016.67%6.96%8.33%2.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Mario Pinto (Local): 92.72%; Felipe Franco (Visit): 7.28%. For Felipe Franco (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 13.74. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 34.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +147.37%.
Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.00I 100.00%NM 97.14%EV -7.28%E -7.28%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 34.00I 2.94%NM 2.86%EV +147.37%E +4.33%K +4.47%G +6.58% | 2.9% | 2026-03-21 19:02 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.00I 100.00%NM 97.14%EV -7.28%E -7.28%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 34.00I 2.94%NM 2.86%EV +147.37%E +4.33%K +4.47%G +6.58% | 2.9% | 2026-03-21 19:02 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 95.92%EV -5.42%E -5.31%K -271.05%G +0.000% | 24.00I 4.17%NM 4.08%EV +74.61%E +3.11%K +3.24%G +2.42% | 2.2% | 2026-03-21 19:02 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.95%EV -6.35%E -6.29%K -634.82%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 5.05%EV +38.23%E +2.01%K +2.12%G +0.812% | 4.3% | 2026-03-21 19:03 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.95%EV -6.35%E -6.29%K -634.82%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 5.05%EV +38.23%E +2.01%K +2.12%G +0.812% | 4.3% | 2026-03-21 19:03 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.00I 100.00%NM 95.00%EV -7.28%E -7.28%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 5.00%EV +38.23%E +2.01%K +2.12%G +0.812% | 5.3% | 2026-03-21 19:02 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.82%EV -6.35%E -6.29%K -634.82%G +0.000% | 18.50I 5.41%NM 5.18%EV +34.60%E +1.87%K +1.98%G +0.684% | 4.4% | 2026-03-21 19:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 94.01%EV -5.42%E -5.31%K -271.05%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.99%EV +16.41%E +1.03%K +1.09%G +0.179% | 4.3% | 2026-03-21 19:01 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -4.49%E -4.36%K -149.79%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV -5.42%E -0.417%K -0.452%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-21 19:03 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -4.49%E -4.36%K -149.79%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV -5.42%E -0.417%K -0.452%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-21 19:03 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -4.49%E -4.36%K -149.79%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV -5.42%E -0.417%K -0.452%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-21 19:03 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -4.49%E -4.36%K -149.79%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV -5.42%E -0.417%K -0.452%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-21 19:03 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -4.49%E -4.36%K -149.79%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV -5.42%E -0.417%K -0.452%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-21 19:03 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.17%EV -5.42%E -5.31%K -271.05%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -12.69%E -1.06%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-21 19:01 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.17%EV -5.42%E -5.31%K -271.05%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -12.69%E -1.06%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-21 19:01 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.78%EV -4.49%E -4.36%K -149.79%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.22%EV -16.33%E -1.42%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-21 19:03 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 91.85%EV -5.42%E -5.31%K -271.05%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.15%EV -16.33%E -1.42%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-21 19:03 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 91.85%EV -5.42%E -5.31%K -271.05%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.15%EV -16.33%E -1.42%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-21 19:03 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 91.72%EV -5.42%E -5.31%K -271.05%G +0.000% | 11.30I 8.85%NM 8.28%EV -17.79%E -1.57%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-21 19:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 91.51%EV -5.42%E -5.31%K -271.05%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -19.97%E -1.82%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-21 19:02 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 91.51%EV -5.42%E -5.31%K -271.05%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -19.97%E -1.82%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-21 19:02 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 91.59%EV -6.35%E -6.29%K -634.82%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.41%EV -19.97%E -1.82%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-21 19:03 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 89.77%EV +0.143%E +0.132%K +1.78%G +0.003% | 9.48I 10.55%NM 10.23%EV -31.03%E -3.27%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-03-21 18:09 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.03%EV +0.143%E +0.132%K +1.78%G +0.003% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.97%EV -47.25%E -6.52%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-19 08:30 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 86.53%EV +1.07%E +0.981%K +11.89%G +0.127% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV -49.07%E -7.01%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-21 17:59 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.79%EV +2.92%E +2.63%K +26.58%G +0.777% | 6.70I 14.93%NM 14.21%EV -51.25%E -7.65%K -8.99%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-18 19:09 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV +2.00%E +1.82%K +19.97%G +0.399% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%EV -56.35%E -9.39%K -11.27%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-21 18:58 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 1.01I 99.01%NM 98.02% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.98% | 1.0% | 2026-03-21 19:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.01I 99.01%NM 97.12% | 34.00I 2.94%NM 2.88% | 2.0% | 2026-03-21 19:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.01I 99.01%NM 97.12% | 34.00I 2.94%NM 2.88% | 2.0% | 2026-03-21 19:03 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.02I 98.04%NM 95.37% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.63% | 2.8% | 2026-03-21 19:04 |
| Novig◎ | 1.00I 100.00%NM 96.81% | 30.30I 3.30%NM 3.19% | 3.3% | 2026-03-21 19:05 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.49% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.51% | 3.8% | 2026-03-21 18:55 |