The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Mario Piazzon v Guilherme Uriel

Kickoff: 2026-08-26 00:20 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Mario Piazzon (Local)

Prediction 39.44%2.54fair odd
EV +1.35%
Edge +0.526%
Kelly +0.861%
Growth +0.012%

assuming max odds 2.57

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.77%39.44%38.77%41.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.272.382.332.5744.05%41.94%42.92%38.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Guilherme Uriel (Visit)

Prediction 60.56%1.65fair odd
EV -0.070%
Edge -0.043%
Kelly -0.108%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.23%60.56%61.23%62.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.561.601.601.6564.10%62.67%62.50%60.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Mario Piazzon (Local): 39.44%; Guilherme Uriel (Visit): 60.56%. For Mario Piazzon (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.54. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.57, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.35%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯2.57I 38.91%NM 37.77%EV +1.35%E +0.526%K +0.861%G +0.012%1.56I 64.10%NM 62.23%EV -5.52%E -3.54%K -9.86%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-26 00:19
BetAnything🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -1.41%E -0.563%K -0.939%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -5.52%E -3.54%K -9.86%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-26 00:19
Pinnacle🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 38.77%EV -2.20%E -0.886%K -1.48%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 61.23%EV -4.92%E -3.13%K -8.62%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-25 23:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -7.32%E -3.12%K -5.43%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.10%E -1.94%K -5.16%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-26 00:14
Grosvenor🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.86%EV -8.11%E -3.48%K -6.10%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.14%EV -2.49%E -1.55%K -4.09%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-25 23:55
TABtouch🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.86%EV -8.11%E -3.48%K -6.10%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.14%EV -2.49%E -1.55%K -4.09%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-25 23:55
Unibet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.86%EV -8.11%E -3.48%K -6.10%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.14%EV -2.49%E -1.55%K -4.09%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-25 23:53
FanDuel🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -9.30%E -4.04%K -7.15%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -0.070%E -0.043%K -0.108%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-26 00:04
ReBet🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 41.19%EV -10.48%E -4.62%K -8.25%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 58.81%EV -3.70%E -2.33%K -6.28%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-26 00:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎2.61I 38.31%NM 38.30%1.62I 61.73%NM 61.70%0.0%2026-08-25 23:59
Novig◎2.53I 39.53%NM 38.89%1.61I 62.11%NM 61.11%1.6%2026-08-26 00:19
ProphetX◎2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%4.2%2026-08-26 00:19