The School of Odds

Marina Spasić v Stephanie Luciano

2026-08-01 14:00 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Marina Spasić (Local)

Prediction 29.39%3.40fair odd
EV -0.077%
Edge -0.023%
Kelly -0.032%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.57%29.44%29.18%30.91%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.953.193.153.4033.90%31.31%31.75%29.41%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Stephanie Luciano (Visit)

Prediction 70.61%1.42fair odd
EV -3.97%
Edge -2.92%
Kelly -11.03%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
69.09%70.56%70.82%71.43%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.321.361.361.3675.76%73.73%73.53%73.53%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag3.40I 29.41%NM 28.57%EV -0.077%E -0.023%K -0.032%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 71.43%EV -3.97%E -2.92%K -11.03%G +0.000%2.9%2026-07-26 03:04
Coolbet3.30I 30.30%NM 29.18%EV -3.02%E -0.914%K -1.31%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 70.82%EV -3.97%E -2.92%K -11.03%G +0.000%3.8%2026-07-26 03:04
BetUS3.30I 30.30%NM 29.18%EV -3.02%E -0.914%K -1.31%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 70.82%EV -3.97%E -2.92%K -11.03%G +0.000%3.8%2026-07-26 03:04
Caesars3.30I 30.30%NM 29.18%EV -3.02%E -0.914%K -1.31%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 70.82%EV -3.97%E -2.92%K -11.03%G +0.000%3.8%2026-07-26 03:03
DraftKings3.30I 30.30%NM 29.03%EV -3.02%E -0.914%K -1.31%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 70.97%EV -4.68%E -3.46%K -13.36%G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-26 03:04
Ladbrokes (AU)3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -4.49%E -1.38%K -1.99%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -4.68%E -3.46%K -13.36%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-26 03:05
Unibet3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -7.42%E -2.36%K -3.45%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -3.97%E -2.92%K -11.03%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-26 03:05
Virgin Bet3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -7.42%E -2.36%K -3.45%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -3.97%E -2.92%K -11.03%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-26 03:04
LiveScore Bet3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -7.42%E -2.36%K -3.45%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -3.97%E -2.92%K -11.03%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-26 03:04
TABtouch3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -7.42%E -2.36%K -3.45%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -3.97%E -2.92%K -11.03%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-26 03:05
BetRivers3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -7.42%E -2.36%K -3.45%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -3.97%E -2.92%K -11.03%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-26 03:05
ATG (SE)3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -7.42%E -2.36%K -3.45%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -3.97%E -2.92%K -11.03%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-26 03:05
Bally Bet3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -7.42%E -2.36%K -3.45%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -3.97%E -2.92%K -11.03%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-26 03:04
betPARX3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -7.42%E -2.36%K -3.45%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -3.97%E -2.92%K -11.03%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-26 03:04
Betway3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -8.89%E -2.87%K -4.24%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -3.97%E -2.92%K -11.03%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-26 05:54
Grosvenor2.95I 33.90%NM 30.91%EV -13.30%E -4.51%K -6.82%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 69.09%EV -6.79%E -5.15%K -21.23%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-26 03:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.