Language:English
Marina Spasić v Stephanie Luciano
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Marina Spasić (Local)
Prediction 25.78%3.88fair odd
EV +11.89%
Edge +2.74%
Kelly +3.56%
Growth +0.423%
assuming max odds 4.34
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.22%25.27%25.70%27.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.723.704.3429.41%26.86%27.03%23.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Stephanie Luciano (Visit)
Prediction 74.22%1.35fair odd
EV -3.51%
Edge -2.70%
Kelly -11.72%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
72.65%74.73%74.30%77.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.241.271.281.3080.65%78.44%78.13%76.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Marina Spasić (Local): 25.78%; Stephanie Luciano (Visit): 74.22%. For Marina Spasić (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.88. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.34, corresponding to a positive expected value of +11.89%.
Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 4.34I 23.04%NM 22.22%EV +11.89%E +2.74%K +3.56%G +0.423% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.78%EV -7.97%E -6.43%K -33.20%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-01 14:05 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.87%EV +9.57%E +2.25%K +2.94%G +0.282% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 77.13%EV -6.48%E -5.15%K -24.94%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-08-01 14:05 |
| BetUS🎯 | 4.24I 23.58%NM 22.63%EV +9.31%E +2.20%K +2.87%G +0.267% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.37%EV -7.97%E -6.43%K -33.20%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-01 14:04 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV +3.12%E +0.780%K +1.04%G +0.032% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -7.23%E -5.78%K -28.90%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-01 14:04 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.71%EV +0.544%E +0.139%K +0.187%G +0.001% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 75.29%EV -5.00%E -3.91%K -17.85%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-01 13:43 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -2.03%E -0.535%K -0.727%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.74%E -4.52%K -21.26%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-01 14:04 |
| Caesars🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -3.32%E -0.886%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -4.26%E -3.30%K -14.68%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-01 14:05 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -3.32%E -0.886%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -4.26%E -3.30%K -14.68%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-01 14:05 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -3.32%E -0.886%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -4.26%E -3.30%K -14.68%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-01 14:04 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.85%EV -4.61%E -1.25%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.15%EV -4.26%E -3.30%K -14.68%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-01 13:59 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -4.61%E -1.25%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -5.00%E -3.91%K -17.85%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-01 14:04 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -4.61%E -1.25%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -5.00%E -3.91%K -17.85%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-01 14:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -4.61%E -1.25%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -5.00%E -3.91%K -17.85%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-01 14:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -4.61%E -1.25%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -5.00%E -3.91%K -17.85%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-01 14:05 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -4.61%E -1.25%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -5.00%E -3.91%K -17.85%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-01 14:05 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -4.61%E -1.25%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -5.00%E -3.91%K -17.85%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-01 14:05 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -4.61%E -1.25%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -5.00%E -3.91%K -17.85%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-01 14:04 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -4.61%E -1.25%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -5.00%E -3.91%K -17.85%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-01 14:05 |
| Fliff🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -4.61%E -1.25%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.45%EV -5.74%E -4.52%K -21.26%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-01 14:04 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.67I 27.25%NM 26.16%EV -5.39%E -1.47%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.84%EV -3.51%E -2.70%K -11.72%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-01 13:19 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -7.19%E -2.00%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -5.00%E -3.91%K -17.85%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-31 09:10 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.50%EV -8.48%E -2.39%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.50%EV -5.00%E -3.91%K -17.85%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-01 14:04 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -9.77%E -2.79%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -3.51%E -2.70%K -11.72%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-30 17:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -9.77%E -2.79%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -4.26%E -3.30%K -14.68%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-01 14:04 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -9.77%E -2.79%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -4.26%E -3.30%K -14.68%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-01 14:04 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -9.77%E -2.79%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -7.23%E -5.78%K -28.90%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-01 13:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -9.77%E -2.79%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -7.23%E -5.78%K -28.90%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-01 13:54 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.44%EV -11.06%E -3.21%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 73.56%EV -7.97%E -6.43%K -33.20%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-08-01 14:04 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.35%EV -12.35%E -3.63%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.65%EV -5.00%E -3.91%K -17.85%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-01 13:45 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 4.55I 21.98%NM 21.96% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 78.04% | 0.1% | 2026-08-01 14:04 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.08% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 76.92% | 0.8% | 2026-08-01 14:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.08% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 76.92% | 0.8% | 2026-08-01 14:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.08% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 76.92% | 0.8% | 2026-08-01 14:05 |
| ProphetX◎ | 4.25I 23.53%NM 23.01% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 76.99% | 2.3% | 2026-08-01 14:05 |
| Novig◎ | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.39% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 75.61% | 2.5% | 2026-08-01 14:05 |
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