Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Marcus McGhee v John Yannis

Kickoff: 2026-06-06 23:15 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

77%

23%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Marcus McGhee (Local)

Prediction 77.05%1.30fair odd

EV -0.604%

Edge -0.469%

Kelly -2.08%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.29

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

73.62%76.71%77.06%79.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.201.231.241.2983.33%81.21%80.65%77.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

John Yannis (Visit)

Prediction 22.95%4.36fair odd

EV +5.57%

Edge +1.21%

Kelly +1.55%

Growth +0.086%

assuming max odds 4.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

20.69%23.29%22.94%26.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.604.224.204.6027.78%23.70%23.81%21.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Marcus McGhee (Local): 77.05%; John Yannis (Visit): 22.95%. For John Yannis (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.36. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.57%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
LeoVegas🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -7.54%E -6.28%K -37.70%G +0.000%	4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV +5.57%E +1.21%K +1.55%G +0.086%	5.1%	2026-06-06 22:59
Virgin Bet🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -7.54%E -6.28%K -37.70%G +0.000%	4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV +5.57%E +1.21%K +1.55%G +0.086%	5.1%	2026-06-06 22:59
LiveScore Bet🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -7.54%E -6.28%K -37.70%G +0.000%	4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV +5.57%E +1.21%K +1.55%G +0.086%	5.1%	2026-06-06 22:59
Grosvenor🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -7.54%E -6.28%K -37.70%G +0.000%	4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV +5.57%E +1.21%K +1.55%G +0.086%	5.1%	2026-06-06 22:59
TABtouch🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -7.54%E -6.28%K -37.70%G +0.000%	4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV +5.57%E +1.21%K +1.55%G +0.086%	5.1%	2026-06-06 22:59
Unibet🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -7.54%E -6.28%K -37.70%G +0.000%	4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV +5.57%E +1.21%K +1.55%G +0.086%	5.1%	2026-06-06 22:59
Hard Rock Bet🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -7.54%E -6.28%K -37.70%G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV +3.27%E +0.727%K +0.935%G +0.031%	5.6%	2026-06-06 22:59
Fliff🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -7.54%E -6.28%K -37.70%G +0.000%	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV +0.976%E +0.222%K +0.287%G +0.003%	6.1%	2026-06-05 21:40
Bovada🎯	1.24I 80.65%NM 77.82%EV -4.46%E -3.59%K -18.57%G +0.000%	4.35I 22.99%NM 22.18%EV -0.171%E -0.039%K -0.051%G +0.000%	3.6%	2026-06-06 22:49
SportsBet🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 78.10%EV -6.00%E -4.92%K -27.26%G +0.000%	4.35I 22.99%NM 21.90%EV -0.171%E -0.039%K -0.051%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-06-06 23:00
FanDuel🎯	1.24I 80.65%NM 77.62%EV -4.46%E -3.59%K -18.57%G +0.000%	4.30I 23.26%NM 22.38%EV -1.32%E -0.307%K -0.400%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-06-06 22:59
Pinnacle🎯	1.26I 79.37%NM 77.13%EV -2.92%E -2.31%K -11.22%G +0.000%	4.25I 23.53%NM 22.87%EV -2.47%E -0.580%K -0.759%G +0.000%	2.9%	2026-06-06 23:00
Coolbet🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 77.27%EV -3.69%E -2.95%K -14.75%G +0.000%	4.25I 23.53%NM 22.73%EV -2.47%E -0.580%K -0.759%G +0.000%	3.5%	2026-06-06 16:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.23I 81.30%NM 77.55%EV -5.23%E -4.25%K -22.73%G +0.000%	4.25I 23.53%NM 22.45%EV -2.47%E -0.580%K -0.759%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-06-06 22:50
Neds🎯	1.24I 80.65%NM 77.21%EV -4.46%E -3.59%K -18.57%G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81%NM 22.79%EV -3.61%E -0.860%K -1.13%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-06-06 22:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	1.24I 80.65%NM 77.21%EV -4.46%E -3.59%K -18.57%G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81%NM 22.79%EV -3.61%E -0.860%K -1.13%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-06-06 22:59
888sport🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -6.00%E -4.92%K -27.26%G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -3.61%E -0.860%K -1.13%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-06-06 22:49
BetUS🎯	1.24I 80.65%NM 77.12%EV -4.46%E -3.59%K -18.57%G +0.000%	4.18I 23.92%NM 22.88%EV -4.07%E -0.974%K -1.28%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-06-06 22:59
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.24I 80.65%NM 76.99%EV -4.46%E -3.59%K -18.57%G +0.000%	4.15I 24.10%NM 23.01%EV -4.76%E -1.15%K -1.51%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-06-06 22:59
DraftKings🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -3.69%E -2.95%K -14.75%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV -5.91%E -1.44%K -1.91%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-06-06 21:19
Unibet (UK)🎯	1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.46%E -3.59%K -18.57%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -5.91%E -1.44%K -1.91%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-06-06 22:59
Betsson🎯	1.26I 79.37%NM 76.05%EV -2.92%E -2.31%K -11.22%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.95%EV -8.20%E -2.05%K -2.73%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-06-06 15:39
NordicBet🎯	1.26I 79.37%NM 76.05%EV -2.92%E -2.31%K -11.22%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.95%EV -8.20%E -2.05%K -2.73%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-06-06 15:40
Bet Right🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -3.69%E -2.95%K -14.75%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -8.20%E -2.05%K -2.73%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-06-06 22:50
PlayUp🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -3.69%E -2.95%K -14.75%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -8.20%E -2.05%K -2.73%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-06-06 22:40
Paddy Power🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.00%E -4.92%K -27.26%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -8.20%E -2.05%K -2.73%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-06-06 22:59
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.00%E -4.92%K -27.26%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -8.20%E -2.05%K -2.73%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-06-06 23:00
Betr (AU)🎯	1.24I 80.65%NM 76.11%EV -4.46%E -3.59%K -18.57%G +0.000%	3.95I 25.32%NM 23.89%EV -9.35%E -2.37%K -3.17%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-06-06 14:10
BetAnything🎯	1.24I 80.65%NM 74.64%EV -4.46%E -3.59%K -18.57%G +0.000%	3.65I 27.40%NM 25.36%EV -16.24%E -4.45%K -6.13%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-06-06 23:00
Betway🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -0.604%E -0.469%K -2.08%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -17.38%E -4.83%K -6.69%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-06-06 21:09

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (7)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Matchbook◎	1.27I 78.74%NM 78.36%	4.60I 21.74%NM 21.64%	0.5%	2026-06-06 22:59
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	1.26I 79.37%NM 78.86%	4.70I 21.28%NM 21.14%	0.6%	2026-06-06 23:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.26I 79.37%NM 78.86%	4.70I 21.28%NM 21.14%	0.6%	2026-06-06 23:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.26I 79.37%NM 78.86%	4.70I 21.28%NM 21.14%	0.6%	2026-06-06 22:59
Kalshi◎	1.28I 78.13%NM 77.26%	4.35I 22.99%NM 22.74%	1.1%	2026-06-06 21:30
Novig◎	1.27I 78.74%NM 77.03%	4.26I 23.47%NM 22.97%	2.2%	2026-06-06 22:59
ProphetX◎	1.26I 79.37%NM 77.54%	4.35I 22.99%NM 22.46%	2.4%	2026-06-06 23:00

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3	Margin ▲	Updated
1xBet🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 75.69%	4.11I 24.33%NM 22.47%	50.00I 2.00%NM 1.85%	8.3%	2026-06-06 19:09