Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Marcus McGhee v Benardo Sopaj

Kickoff: 2026-10-04 00:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

32 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

55%

45%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Marcus McGhee (Local)

Prediction 55.04%1.82fair odd

EV +0.726%

Edge +0.397%

Kelly +0.875%

Growth +0.006%

assuming max odds 1.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

51.07%55.07%54.99%57.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.551.701.681.8364.52%58.70%59.52%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Benardo Sopaj (Visit)

Prediction 44.96%2.22fair odd

EV +2.06%

Edge +0.906%

Kelly +1.62%

Growth +0.033%

assuming max odds 2.27

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

42.31%44.93%45.01%48.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.912.132.152.2752.36%46.91%46.51%44.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Marcus McGhee (Local): 55.04%; Benardo Sopaj (Visit): 44.96%. For Benardo Sopaj (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.22. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.27, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.06%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (32 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Bovada🎯	1.68I 59.52%NM 57.47%EV -7.53%E -4.48%K -11.07%G +0.000%	2.27I 44.05%NM 42.53%EV +2.06%E +0.906%K +1.62%G +0.033%	3.6%	2026-09-30 20:13
TAB🎯	1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -9.18%E -5.56%K -14.13%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV +1.16%E +0.514%K +0.925%G +0.011%	5.1%	2026-09-30 01:58
Betsson🎯	1.65I 60.61%NM 57.25%EV -9.18%E -5.56%K -14.13%G +0.000%	2.21I 45.25%NM 42.75%EV -0.642%E -0.290%K -0.531%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-09-25 15:40
Hard Rock Bet🎯	1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -6.98%E -4.13%K -10.12%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -1.09%E -0.496%K -0.910%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-09-28 19:54
NordicBet🎯	1.64I 60.98%NM 57.29%EV -9.73%E -5.93%K -15.21%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.71%EV -1.09%E -0.496%K -0.910%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-09-25 15:40
Pinnacle🎯	1.72I 58.14%NM 55.90%EV -5.33%E -3.10%K -7.40%G +0.000%	2.18I 45.87%NM 44.10%EV -1.99%E -0.913%K -1.69%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-09-30 19:50
Unibet🎯	1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -7.53%E -4.48%K -11.07%G +0.000%	2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -1.99%E -0.913%K -1.69%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-09-28 19:59
LiveScore Bet🎯	1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -7.53%E -4.48%K -11.07%G +0.000%	2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -1.99%E -0.913%K -1.69%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-09-28 19:59
Virgin Bet🎯	1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -7.53%E -4.48%K -11.07%G +0.000%	2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -1.99%E -0.913%K -1.69%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-09-28 19:55
BetRivers🎯	1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -7.53%E -4.48%K -11.07%G +0.000%	2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -1.99%E -0.913%K -1.69%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-09-28 19:59
TABtouch🎯	1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -7.53%E -4.48%K -11.07%G +0.000%	2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -1.99%E -0.913%K -1.69%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-09-28 19:55
ATG (SE)🎯	1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -7.53%E -4.48%K -11.07%G +0.000%	2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -1.99%E -0.913%K -1.69%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-09-28 19:54
Bally Bet🎯	1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -7.53%E -4.48%K -11.07%G +0.000%	2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -1.99%E -0.913%K -1.69%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-09-28 19:58
betPARX🎯	1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -7.53%E -4.48%K -11.07%G +0.000%	2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -1.99%E -0.913%K -1.69%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-09-28 19:55
FanDuel🎯	1.67I 59.88%NM 56.62%EV -8.08%E -4.84%K -12.06%G +0.000%	2.18I 45.87%NM 43.38%EV -1.99%E -0.913%K -1.69%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-09-28 14:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -5.33%E -3.10%K -7.40%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -3.34%E -1.55%K -2.90%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-09-30 19:45
BetMGM🎯	1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -5.88%E -3.44%K -8.28%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -3.34%E -1.55%K -2.90%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-09-30 19:45
DraftKings🎯	1.74I 57.47%NM 55.15%EV -4.23%E -2.43%K -5.71%G +0.000%	2.14I 46.73%NM 44.85%EV -3.79%E -1.77%K -3.32%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-09-30 19:35
Caesars🎯	1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -2.58%E -1.46%K -3.35%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -5.59%E -2.66%K -5.08%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-09-30 19:39
Coolbet🎯	1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%EV -3.13%E -1.78%K -4.11%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV -5.59%E -2.66%K -5.08%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-09-30 19:39
Bet Right🎯	1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -4.23%E -2.43%K -5.71%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -5.59%E -2.66%K -5.08%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-09-30 20:09
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.78%E -2.76%K -6.55%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.59%E -2.66%K -5.08%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-09-30 19:40
Betr (AU)🎯	1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -5.33%E -3.10%K -7.40%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -5.59%E -2.66%K -5.08%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-09-30 19:40
Paddy Power🎯	1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -8.08%E -4.84%K -12.06%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -5.59%E -2.66%K -5.08%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-09-28 14:39
Sky Bet🎯	1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -8.08%E -4.84%K -12.06%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -5.59%E -2.66%K -5.08%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-09-28 14:44
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯	1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -8.08%E -4.84%K -12.06%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -5.59%E -2.66%K -5.08%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-09-29 09:35
888sport🎯	1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -3.68%E -2.10%K -4.90%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -7.84%E -3.82%K -7.46%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-09-30 20:20
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.81I 55.25%NM 52.86%EV -0.375%E -0.207%K -0.463%G +0.000%	2.03I 49.26%NM 47.14%EV -8.73%E -4.30%K -8.48%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-09-30 19:54
ReBet🎯	1.77I 56.50%NM 53.42%EV -2.58%E -1.46%K -3.35%G +0.000%	2.03I 49.26%NM 46.58%EV -8.73%E -4.30%K -8.48%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-09-30 19:54
Unibet (UK)🎯	1.76I 56.82%NM 53.44%EV -3.13%E -1.78%K -4.11%G +0.000%	2.02I 49.50%NM 46.56%EV -9.18%E -4.55%K -9.00%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-09-30 19:55
Grosvenor🎯	1.55I 64.52%NM 56.34%EV -14.69%E -9.47%K -26.70%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 43.66%EV -10.08%E -5.04%K -10.08%G +0.000%	14.5%	2026-09-28 19:59
BetAnything🎯	1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV +0.726%E +0.397%K +0.875%G +0.006%	1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -14.13%E -7.40%K -15.53%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-09-30 19:45

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (7)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
BetOpenly◎	1.78I 56.18%NM 56.16%	2.28I 43.86%NM 43.84%	0.0%	2026-09-30 20:20
Matchbook◎	1.80I 55.56%NM 54.31%	2.14I 46.73%NM 45.69%	2.3%	2026-09-30 20:07
ProphetX◎	1.81I 55.25%NM 53.94%	2.12I 47.17%NM 46.06%	2.4%	2026-09-30 20:07
Novig◎	1.80I 55.56%NM 54.20%	2.13I 46.95%NM 45.80%	2.5%	2026-09-30 20:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	1.80I 55.56%NM 53.13%	2.04I 49.02%NM 46.87%	4.6%	2026-09-30 20:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.80I 55.56%NM 53.13%	2.04I 49.02%NM 46.87%	4.6%	2026-09-30 20:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.80I 55.56%NM 53.13%	2.04I 49.02%NM 46.87%	4.6%	2026-09-30 20:20

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3	Margin ▲	Updated
1xBet🎯	1.64I 60.98%NM 56.30%	2.21I 45.25%NM 41.78%	48.00I 2.08%NM 1.92%	8.3%	2026-09-28 10:05