Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Marcus McGhee v Anthony Romero

Kickoff: 2026-10-03 22:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

31 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

81%

19%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Marcus McGhee (Local)

Prediction 80.76%1.24fair odd

EV +13.06%

Edge +9.33%

Kelly +32.66%

Growth +4.27%

assuming max odds 1.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

68.18%79.50%80.78%83.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.131.201.181.4088.50%83.65%84.75%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Anthony Romero (Visit)

Prediction 19.24%5.20fair odd

EV +10.63%

Edge +1.85%

Kelly +2.24%

Growth +0.238%

assuming max odds 5.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

16.42%20.50%19.22%31.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.004.614.905.7533.33%21.68%20.41%17.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Marcus McGhee (Local): 80.76%; Anthony Romero (Visit): 19.24%. For Marcus McGhee (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.24. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +13.06%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Paddy Power🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV +13.06%E +9.33%K +32.66%G +4.27%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -42.28%E -14.09%K -21.14%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-10-03 22:40
DraftKings🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV +4.18%E +3.24%K +14.41%G +0.602%	3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -32.66%E -9.33%K -13.06%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-10-03 22:40
ATG (SE)🎯	1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%EV +2.56%E +2.02%K +9.50%G +0.244%	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -30.73%E -8.54%K -11.82%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-10-03 22:40
TABtouch🎯	1.27I 78.74%NM 73.09%EV +2.56%E +2.02%K +9.50%G +0.244%	3.45I 28.99%NM 26.91%EV -33.62%E -9.75%K -13.72%G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-10-03 22:40
Grosvenor🎯	1.27I 78.74%NM 73.09%EV +2.56%E +2.02%K +9.50%G +0.244%	3.45I 28.99%NM 26.91%EV -33.62%E -9.75%K -13.72%G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-10-03 22:40
Bally Bet🎯	1.27I 78.74%NM 72.81%EV +2.56%E +2.02%K +9.50%G +0.244%	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -34.58%E -10.17%K -14.41%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-10-03 22:40
BetRivers🎯	1.26I 79.37%NM 72.96%EV +1.76%E +1.39%K +6.76%G +0.119%	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -34.58%E -10.17%K -14.41%G +0.000%	8.8%	2026-10-03 22:40
NordicBet🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -1.47%E -1.21%K -6.70%G +0.000%	3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -27.85%E -7.43%K -10.13%G +0.000%	8.6%	2026-10-03 22:40
FanDuel🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 80.33%EV -3.09%E -2.57%K -15.44%G +0.000%	4.90I 20.41%NM 19.67%EV -5.72%E -1.17%K -1.47%G +0.000%	3.7%	2026-10-03 22:30
Pinnacle🎯	1.19I 84.03%NM 81.75%EV -3.90%E -3.27%K -20.51%G +0.000%	5.33I 18.76%NM 18.25%EV +2.55%E +0.479%K +0.589%G +0.015%	2.8%	2026-10-03 22:35
Coolbet🎯	1.19I 84.03%NM 80.78%EV -3.90%E -3.27%K -20.51%G +0.000%	5.00I 20.00%NM 19.22%EV -3.80%E -0.760%K -0.950%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-10-02 18:40
ReBet🎯	1.18I 84.75%NM 81.21%EV -4.70%E -3.99%K -26.13%G +0.000%	5.10I 19.61%NM 18.79%EV -1.87%E -0.368%K -0.457%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-10-03 21:35
Bovada🎯	1.18I 84.75%NM 81.21%EV -4.70%E -3.99%K -26.13%G +0.000%	5.10I 19.61%NM 18.79%EV -1.87%E -0.368%K -0.457%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-10-03 22:30
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.70%E -3.99%K -26.13%G +0.000%	5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -3.80%E -0.760%K -0.950%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-10-03 21:35
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.70%E -3.99%K -26.13%G +0.000%	5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -3.80%E -0.760%K -0.950%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-10-02 18:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.70%E -3.99%K -26.13%G +0.000%	5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -3.80%E -0.760%K -0.950%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-10-03 13:30
BetAnything🎯	1.18I 84.75%NM 78.85%EV -4.70%E -3.99%K -26.13%G +0.000%	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -15.34%E -3.49%K -4.51%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-10-03 21:31
Caesars🎯	1.17I 85.47%NM 80.72%EV -5.51%E -4.71%K -32.42%G +0.000%	4.90I 20.41%NM 19.28%EV -5.72%E -1.17%K -1.47%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-10-03 22:38
Betr (AU)🎯	1.17I 85.47%NM 79.90%EV -5.51%E -4.71%K -32.42%G +0.000%	4.65I 21.51%NM 20.10%EV -10.53%E -2.27%K -2.89%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-10-03 22:39
Sky Bet🎯	1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -5.51%E -4.71%K -32.42%G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -13.42%E -2.98%K -3.83%G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-10-02 14:59
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯	1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -5.51%E -4.71%K -32.42%G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -13.42%E -2.98%K -3.83%G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-10-02 18:40
Bet Right🎯	1.16I 86.21%NM 81.90%EV -6.32%E -5.45%K -39.49%G +0.000%	5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV +1.01%E +0.193%K +0.238%G +0.002%	5.3%	2026-10-03 22:30
betPARX🎯	1.16I 86.21%NM 81.47%EV -6.32%E -5.45%K -39.49%G +0.000%	5.10I 19.61%NM 18.53%EV -1.87%E -0.368%K -0.457%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-10-03 22:39
BetMGM🎯	1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -6.32%E -5.45%K -39.49%G +0.000%	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -3.80%E -0.760%K -0.950%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-10-03 22:40
Virgin Bet🎯	1.16I 86.21%NM 80.54%EV -6.32%E -5.45%K -39.49%G +0.000%	4.80I 20.83%NM 19.46%EV -7.65%E -1.59%K -2.01%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-10-03 22:39
Unibet (UK)🎯	1.15I 86.96%NM 80.51%EV -7.13%E -6.20%K -47.51%G +0.000%	4.75I 21.05%NM 19.49%EV -8.61%E -1.81%K -2.30%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-10-03 22:39
Unibet🎯	1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -7.93%E -6.96%K -56.67%G +0.000%	5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV +10.63%E +1.85%K +2.24%G +0.238%	5.1%	2026-10-03 22:40
Fliff🎯	1.14I 87.72%NM 82.16%EV -7.93%E -6.96%K -56.67%G +0.000%	5.25I 19.05%NM 17.84%EV +1.01%E +0.193%K +0.238%G +0.002%	6.8%	2026-10-03 22:40
Betsson🎯	1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -7.93%E -6.96%K -56.67%G +0.000%	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -3.80%E -0.760%K -0.950%G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-10-03 22:40
Hard Rock Bet🎯	1.13I 88.50%NM 83.58%EV -8.74%E -7.74%K -67.24%G +0.000%	5.75I 17.39%NM 16.42%EV +10.63%E +1.85%K +2.24%G +0.238%	5.9%	2026-10-03 22:40
LiveScore Bet🎯	1.13I 88.50%NM 82.70%EV -8.74%E -7.74%K -67.24%G +0.000%	5.40I 18.52%NM 17.30%EV +3.90%E +0.722%K +0.886%G +0.035%	7.0%	2026-10-03 22:39

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Matchbook◎	1.20I 83.33%NM 82.35%	5.60I 17.86%NM 17.65%	1.2%	2026-10-03 22:37
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	1.20I 83.33%NM 81.54%	5.30I 18.87%NM 18.46%	2.2%	2026-10-03 22:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.20I 83.33%NM 81.54%	5.30I 18.87%NM 18.46%	2.2%	2026-10-03 22:40
ProphetX◎	1.19I 84.03%NM 80.46%	4.90I 20.41%NM 19.54%	4.4%	2026-10-03 22:37
Novig◎	1.37I 72.99%NM 66.99%	2.78I 35.97%NM 33.01%	9.0%	2026-10-03 22:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.03I 97.09%NM 57.61%	1.40I 71.43%NM 42.39%	68.5%	2026-10-03 22:40

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3	Margin ▲	Updated
1xBet🎯	1.14I 87.72%NM 80.24%	5.10I 19.61%NM 17.94%	50.00I 2.00%NM 1.83%	9.3%	2026-10-02 18:50