Language:English
Marcus Buchecha v Ryan Spann
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Marcus Buchecha (Local)
Prediction 56.21%1.78fair odd
EV -2.20%
Edge -1.26%
Kelly -2.97%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.74
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.69%56.17%56.27%57.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.641.701.711.7460.98%58.84%58.65%57.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Ryan Spann (Visit)
Prediction 43.79%2.28fair odd
EV -1.47%
Edge -0.651%
Kelly -1.17%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.31%43.83%43.73%45.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.162.152.2547.62%46.39%46.51%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Marcus Buchecha (Local): 56.21%; Ryan Spann (Visit): 43.79%. For Ryan Spann (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.28. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.25, with an expected value of -1.47%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (42 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -2.20%E -1.26%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -8.03%E -3.83%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-23 20:39 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -2.76%E -1.60%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -8.03%E -3.83%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-21 13:04 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -2.76%E -1.60%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -8.03%E -3.83%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-23 20:39 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -2.76%E -1.60%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -8.03%E -3.83%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-23 20:40 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -2.76%E -1.60%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -8.03%E -3.83%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-23 20:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -2.76%E -1.60%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -8.03%E -3.83%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-23 20:40 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -2.76%E -1.60%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -8.03%E -3.83%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-23 20:39 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -2.76%E -1.60%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -8.03%E -3.83%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-23 20:39 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -2.76%E -1.60%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -8.03%E -3.83%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-23 20:39 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -2.76%E -1.60%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -8.03%E -3.83%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-23 20:40 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -2.76%E -1.60%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -8.03%E -3.83%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-23 20:39 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -2.76%E -1.60%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -8.03%E -3.83%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-23 20:39 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -2.76%E -1.60%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -8.03%E -3.83%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-23 20:39 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -2.76%E -1.60%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -8.03%E -3.83%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-23 20:39 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -2.76%E -1.60%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -8.03%E -3.83%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-23 20:39 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -3.89%E -2.27%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -3.66%E -1.66%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-04-23 21:54 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -3.89%E -2.27%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -3.66%E -1.66%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-04-24 00:10 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.04%EV -3.89%E -2.27%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.96%EV -4.53%E -2.08%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-04-23 21:54 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.04%EV -3.89%E -2.27%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.96%EV -4.53%E -2.08%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-04-23 17:57 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -3.89%E -2.27%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -5.84%E -2.72%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-23 20:14 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -3.89%E -2.27%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -8.03%E -3.83%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-23 21:54 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -4.45%E -2.62%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -3.66%E -1.66%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-24 00:09 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.45%E -2.62%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.84%E -2.72%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 20:14 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.45%E -2.62%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.84%E -2.72%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-24 00:14 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -5.01%E -2.96%K -7.26%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -3.66%E -1.66%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-23 18:13 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -5.01%E -2.96%K -7.26%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -5.84%E -2.72%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-23 21:54 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -5.01%E -2.96%K -7.26%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -5.84%E -2.72%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-23 22:04 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.25%EV -5.57%E -3.32%K -8.19%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.75%EV -1.47%E -0.651%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-04-21 18:55 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.57%E -3.32%K -8.19%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -3.66%E -1.66%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-23 18:14 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.57%E -3.32%K -8.19%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -3.66%E -1.66%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-23 18:14 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.13%E -3.67%K -9.16%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.66%E -1.66%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-21 19:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.13%E -3.67%K -9.16%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.66%E -1.66%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-20 00:45 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.13%E -3.67%K -9.16%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.66%E -1.66%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-20 00:45 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.13%E -3.67%K -9.16%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.66%E -1.66%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-21 19:55 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.13%E -3.67%K -9.16%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.66%E -1.66%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-21 11:40 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -6.13%E -3.67%K -9.16%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -5.84%E -2.72%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-15 21:04 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -6.13%E -3.67%K -9.16%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -5.84%E -2.72%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-15 21:05 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.44%EV -6.70%E -4.03%K -10.15%G +0.000% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 42.56%EV -1.90%E -0.850%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-24 00:20 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -6.70%E -4.03%K -10.15%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -2.34%E -1.05%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-22 10:55 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -7.26%E -4.40%K -11.17%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -1.47%E -0.651%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-23 13:09 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -7.26%E -4.40%K -11.17%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -3.66%E -1.66%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-24 03:15 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.73%EV -7.82%E -4.77%K -12.22%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.27%EV -5.84%E -2.72%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-20 12:25 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.72I 58.14%NM 58.05% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.95% | 0.2% | 2026-04-24 00:29 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.79I 55.87%NM 55.58% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 44.42% | 0.5% | 2026-04-24 03:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.79I 55.87%NM 55.58% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 44.42% | 0.5% | 2026-04-24 03:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.79I 55.87%NM 55.58% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 44.42% | 0.5% | 2026-04-24 03:05 |
| Novig◎ | 1.78I 56.18%NM 55.50% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.50% | 1.2% | 2026-04-24 02:50 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.76I 56.82%NM 55.56% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 44.44% | 2.3% | 2026-04-24 00:05 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.75I 57.14%NM 55.36% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 44.64% | 3.2% | 2026-04-23 18:24 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.16% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84% | 4.8% | 2026-04-22 06:59 |