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Marcos Breno v Bektur Zhenishbek Uulu

2026-08-21 23:30 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Marcos Breno (Local)

Prediction 26.32%3.80fair odd
EV +1.32%
Edge +0.342%
Kelly +0.462%
Growth +0.006%

assuming max odds 3.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.21%26.32%26.32%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.733.853.8528.57%26.79%25.97%25.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Bektur Zhenishbek Uulu (Visit)

Prediction 73.68%1.36fair odd
EV -7.89%
Edge -6.32%
Kelly -31.58%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
73.68%73.68%73.68%75.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.231.241.231.2581.30%80.86%81.30%80.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Marcos Breno (Local): 26.32%; Bektur Zhenishbek Uulu (Visit): 73.68%. For Marcos Breno (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.80. 2 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 3.85, producing a positive expected value of +1.32%.

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.21%EV +1.32%E +0.342%K +0.462%G +0.006%1.23I 81.30%NM 75.79%EV -9.37%E -7.62%K -40.73%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-20 15:19
Grosvenor🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.21%EV +1.32%E +0.342%K +0.462%G +0.006%1.23I 81.30%NM 75.79%EV -9.37%E -7.62%K -40.73%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-20 15:20
BetOnline.ag🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -7.89%E -2.26%K -3.16%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -7.89%E -6.32%K -31.58%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-20 15:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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