The School of Odds
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Márcio Barbosa v Ryan Kuse

Kickoff: 2026-08-22 22:20 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

33 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Márcio Barbosa (Local)

Prediction 86.08%1.16fair odd
EV -3.59%
Edge -3.21%
Kelly -29.92%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.12

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
83.08%85.96%86.31%86.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.051.111.101.1295.24%90.46%90.91%89.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ryan Kuse (Visit)

Prediction 13.92%7.18fair odd
EV +3.56%
Edge +0.479%
Kelly +0.553%
Growth +0.020%

assuming max odds 7.44

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.08%14.04%13.69%16.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.506.777.007.4418.18%14.76%14.29%13.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Márcio Barbosa (Local): 86.08%; Ryan Kuse (Visit): 13.92%. For Ryan Kuse (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.18. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.44, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.56%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (33 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 86.92%EV -3.59%E -3.21%K -29.92%G +0.000%7.44I 13.44%NM 13.08%EV +3.56%E +0.479%K +0.553%G +0.020%2.7%2026-08-22 21:55
FanDuel🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 86.48%EV -4.45%E -4.01%K -40.46%G +0.000%7.10I 14.08%NM 13.52%EV -1.17%E -0.165%K -0.192%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-21 22:24
Bovada🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 86.31%EV -4.45%E -4.01%K -40.46%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.69%EV -2.56%E -0.366%K -0.427%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-21 22:44
Coolbet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 86.31%EV -4.45%E -4.01%K -40.46%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.69%EV -2.56%E -0.366%K -0.427%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-17 13:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 86.31%EV -4.45%E -4.01%K -40.46%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.69%EV -2.56%E -0.366%K -0.427%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-21 22:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.31%E -4.83%K -53.12%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -2.56%E -0.366%K -0.427%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-19 21:30
ATG (SE)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.31%E -4.83%K -53.12%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -2.56%E -0.366%K -0.427%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-16 18:15
LiveScore Bet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.31%E -4.83%K -53.12%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -2.56%E -0.366%K -0.427%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-16 18:19
BetRivers🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.31%E -4.83%K -53.12%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -2.56%E -0.366%K -0.427%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-16 18:19
Virgin Bet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.31%E -4.83%K -53.12%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -2.56%E -0.366%K -0.427%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-16 18:20
Unibet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.31%E -4.83%K -53.12%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -2.56%E -0.366%K -0.427%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-16 18:19
TABtouch🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.31%E -4.83%K -53.12%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -2.56%E -0.366%K -0.427%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-16 18:19
betPARX🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.31%E -4.83%K -53.12%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -2.56%E -0.366%K -0.427%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-16 18:18
Bally Bet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.31%E -4.83%K -53.12%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -2.56%E -0.366%K -0.427%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-16 18:24
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.31%E -4.83%K -53.12%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -2.56%E -0.366%K -0.427%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-16 18:49
SportsBet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.31%E -4.83%K -53.12%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -2.56%E -0.366%K -0.427%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-21 04:29
Bet Right🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.31%E -4.83%K -53.12%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -2.56%E -0.366%K -0.427%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-18 21:45
Betsson🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 86.53%EV -6.17%E -5.66%K -68.58%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV -2.56%E -0.366%K -0.427%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-17 16:09
NordicBet🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 86.53%EV -6.17%E -5.66%K -68.58%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV -2.56%E -0.366%K -0.427%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-17 16:10
BetOnline.ag🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 85.96%EV -3.59%E -3.21%K -29.92%G +0.000%6.86I 14.58%NM 14.04%EV -4.51%E -0.657%K -0.770%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-22 22:19
Fliff🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.08%EV -5.31%E -4.83%K -53.12%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.92%EV -5.35%E -0.786%K -0.922%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-22 22:09
DraftKings🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 85.77%EV -3.59%E -3.21%K -29.92%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.23%EV -6.04%E -0.895%K -1.05%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-22 21:55
ReBet🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 85.49%EV -3.59%E -3.21%K -29.92%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.51%EV -8.13%E -1.23%K -1.45%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-22 10:05
Unibet (UK)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -3.59%E -3.21%K -29.92%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV -9.52%E -1.46%K -1.73%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-21 22:04
Caesars🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -3.59%E -3.21%K -29.92%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV -9.52%E -1.46%K -1.73%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-21 20:40
Sky Bet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -4.45%E -4.01%K -40.46%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -9.52%E -1.46%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-21 04:34
Paddy Power🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -4.45%E -4.01%K -40.46%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -9.52%E -1.46%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-21 04:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -4.45%E -4.01%K -40.46%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -9.52%E -1.46%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-21 04:29
Betr (AU)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -5.31%E -4.83%K -53.12%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -9.52%E -1.46%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-21 22:55
BetUS🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -3.59%E -3.21%K -29.92%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -13.00%E -2.08%K -2.48%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-21 20:14
Grosvenor🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 85.62%EV -9.62%E -9.16%K -192.32%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.38%EV -13.00%E -2.08%K -2.48%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-16 18:19
Betway🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -3.59%E -3.21%K -29.92%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -16.48%E -2.75%K -3.30%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-20 05:44
BetAnything🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -3.59%E -3.21%K -29.92%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -23.44%E -4.26%K -5.21%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-22 15:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (7)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎1.14I 87.72%NM 87.69%8.12I 12.32%NM 12.31%0.0%2026-08-22 21:54
Novig◎1.14I 87.72%NM 87.09%7.69I 13.00%NM 12.91%0.7%2026-08-22 22:10
Matchbook◎1.12I 89.29%NM 88.48%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.52%0.9%2026-08-22 22:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.12I 89.29%NM 88.24%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.76%1.2%2026-08-22 22:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.12I 89.29%NM 88.24%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.76%1.2%2026-08-22 22:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.12I 89.29%NM 88.24%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.76%1.2%2026-08-22 22:15
ProphetX◎1.12I 89.29%NM 85.86%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.14%4.0%2026-08-22 21:55

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 84.16%6.55I 15.27%NM 14.01%50.00I 2.00%NM 1.83%9.0%2026-08-22 20:34