Language:English
Márcio Barbosa v Dennis Buzukja
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Márcio Barbosa (Local)
Prediction 76.55%1.31fair odd
EV -0.481%
Edge -0.370%
Kelly -1.60%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
73.38%76.47%76.41%78.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.201.241.231.3083.33%80.46%81.30%76.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Dennis Buzukja (Visit)
Prediction 23.45%4.26fair odd
EV +1.99%
Edge +0.459%
Kelly +0.595%
Growth +0.012%
assuming max odds 4.35
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.62%23.53%23.59%26.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.504.114.254.3528.57%24.33%23.53%22.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Márcio Barbosa (Local): 76.55%; Dennis Buzukja (Visit): 23.45%. For Dennis Buzukja (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.26. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.35, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.99%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (35 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.96%EV -5.84%E -4.75%K -25.39%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.04%EV +1.99%E +0.459%K +0.595%G +0.012% | 4.3% | 2026-04-13 03:49 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.38%EV -8.14%E -6.78%K -40.68%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.62%EV +1.99%E +0.459%K +0.595%G +0.012% | 6.3% | 2026-04-18 11:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.76%EV -5.84%E -4.75%K -25.39%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.24%EV +0.822%E +0.191%K +0.249%G +0.002% | 4.6% | 2026-04-18 23:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.76%EV -5.84%E -4.75%K -25.39%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.24%EV +0.822%E +0.191%K +0.249%G +0.002% | 4.6% | 2026-04-18 23:25 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.41%EV -5.07%E -4.09%K -21.14%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.59%EV -0.350%E -0.082%K -0.108%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-18 19:19 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.55%EV -5.84%E -4.75%K -25.39%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.45%EV -0.350%E -0.082%K -0.108%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-18 19:20 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.55%EV -5.84%E -4.75%K -25.39%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.45%EV -0.350%E -0.082%K -0.108%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-18 19:20 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.55%EV -5.84%E -4.75%K -25.39%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.45%EV -0.350%E -0.082%K -0.108%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-18 19:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.55%EV -5.84%E -4.75%K -25.39%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.45%EV -0.350%E -0.082%K -0.108%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-18 19:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.55%EV -5.84%E -4.75%K -25.39%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.45%EV -0.350%E -0.082%K -0.108%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-18 19:20 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.55%EV -5.84%E -4.75%K -25.39%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.45%EV -0.350%E -0.082%K -0.108%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-18 19:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.55%EV -5.84%E -4.75%K -25.39%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.45%EV -0.350%E -0.082%K -0.108%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-18 19:20 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.55%EV -5.84%E -4.75%K -25.39%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.45%EV -0.350%E -0.082%K -0.108%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-18 19:20 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.55%EV -5.84%E -4.75%K -25.39%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.45%EV -0.350%E -0.082%K -0.108%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-18 19:20 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.55%EV -5.84%E -4.75%K -25.39%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.45%EV -0.350%E -0.082%K -0.108%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-18 19:20 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.55%EV -5.84%E -4.75%K -25.39%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.45%EV -0.350%E -0.082%K -0.108%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-18 19:20 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.55%EV -5.84%E -4.75%K -25.39%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.45%EV -0.350%E -0.082%K -0.108%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-18 19:20 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -6.61%E -5.41%K -30.02%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -0.350%E -0.082%K -0.108%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-18 23:15 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -5.84%E -4.75%K -25.39%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -1.52%E -0.362%K -0.476%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-18 04:25 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.85%EV -4.31%E -3.45%K -17.24%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 23.15%EV -2.69%E -0.649%K -0.855%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-18 04:30 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -4.31%E -3.45%K -17.24%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV -3.87%E -0.943%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-04-18 23:21 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -5.07%E -4.09%K -21.14%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -3.87%E -0.943%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-18 12:30 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -5.07%E -4.09%K -21.14%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -3.87%E -0.943%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-18 12:29 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 75.89%EV -2.01%E -1.57%K -7.19%G +0.000% | 4.03I 24.81%NM 24.11%EV -5.51%E -1.37%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-04-18 23:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 75.76%EV -2.01%E -1.57%K -7.19%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.24%EV -6.21%E -1.55%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-04-18 23:09 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.31%E -3.45%K -17.24%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -6.21%E -1.55%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-18 09:59 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.31%E -3.45%K -17.24%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -6.21%E -1.55%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-18 08:00 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.31%E -3.45%K -17.24%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -6.21%E -1.55%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-18 08:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.67%EV -2.78%E -2.19%K -10.29%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.33%EV -7.38%E -1.87%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-18 23:19 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.11%EV -5.07%E -4.09%K -21.14%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.89%EV -7.38%E -1.87%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-18 19:25 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.61%EV -1.25%E -0.966%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 3.79I 26.39%NM 25.39%EV -11.14%E -2.94%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-04-18 23:25 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -4.31%E -3.45%K -17.24%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -12.07%E -3.22%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-18 04:30 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -4.31%E -3.45%K -17.24%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -12.07%E -3.22%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-18 04:25 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 74.00%EV -0.481%E -0.370%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.00%EV -13.25%E -3.58%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-04-18 23:25 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.38%EV -2.78%E -2.19%K -10.29%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -17.94%E -5.12%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-18 23:25 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.33I 75.19%NM 75.37% | 4.07I 24.57%NM 24.63% | -0.2% | 2026-04-18 23:25 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.30I 76.92%NM 76.79% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.21% | 0.2% | 2026-04-18 23:25 |
| Novig◎ | 1.30I 76.92%NM 76.62% | 4.26I 23.47%NM 23.38% | 0.4% | 2026-04-18 23:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.30I 76.92%NM 76.36% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.64% | 0.7% | 2026-04-18 23:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.29I 77.52%NM 76.92% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.08% | 0.8% | 2026-04-18 23:25 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.29I 77.52%NM 76.92% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.08% | 0.8% | 2026-04-18 23:25 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.28I 78.13%NM 77.26% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.74% | 1.1% | 2026-04-18 22:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.29I 77.52%NM 76.50% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.50% | 1.3% | 2026-04-18 23:20 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.26% | 4.29I 23.31%NM 21.86% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.88% | 6.6% | 2026-04-18 16:00 |