Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Manuel Del Valle v Luan Duarte

2026-11-07 22:15 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

1 sportsbook (1 in analysis )

82%

18%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Manuel Del Valle (Local)

Prediction 82.42%1.21fair odd

EV -7.69%

Edge -6.87%

Kelly -64.10%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.12

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

82.42%82.42%82.42%82.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.121.121.121.1289.29%89.29%89.29%89.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Luan Duarte (Visit)

Prediction 17.58%5.69fair odd

EV -7.69%

Edge -1.47%

Kelly -1.81%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

17.58%17.58%17.58%17.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

5.255.255.255.2519.05%19.05%19.05%19.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Manuel Del Valle (Local): 82.42%; Luan Duarte (Visit): 17.58%. For Manuel Del Valle (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.21. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 1.12, with an expected value of -7.69%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (1 sportsbook)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.12I 89.29%NM 82.42%EV -7.69%E -6.87%K -64.10%G +0.000%	5.25I 19.05%NM 17.58%EV -7.69%E -1.47%K -1.81%G +0.000%	8.3%	2026-11-04 22:54

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.