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Mantas Kondratavicius v Antonio Trocoli
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Mantas Kondratavicius (Local)
Prediction 89.48%1.12fair odd
EV +1.11%
Edge +0.986%
Kelly +8.57%
Growth +0.096%
assuming max odds 1.13
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
83.58%90.17%89.61%97.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.001.051.041.13100.00%95.19%96.62%88.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Antonio Trocoli (Visit)
Prediction 10.52%9.51fair odd
EV +257.61%
Edge +7.58%
Kelly +7.81%
Growth +20.11%
assuming max odds 34.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.86%9.83%10.39%16.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.7512.1210.0034.0017.39%8.25%10.00%2.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Mantas Kondratavicius (Local): 89.48%; Antonio Trocoli (Visit): 10.52%. For Antonio Trocoli (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 9.51. 21 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 34.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +257.61%.
Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.00I 100.00%NM 97.14%EV -10.52%E -10.52%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 34.00I 2.94%NM 2.86%EV +257.61%E +7.58%K +7.81%G +20.11% | 2.9% | 2026-03-21 18:34 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.00I 100.00%NM 97.14%EV -10.52%E -10.52%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 34.00I 2.94%NM 2.86%EV +257.61%E +7.58%K +7.81%G +20.11% | 2.9% | 2026-03-21 18:34 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 95.92%EV -8.73%E -8.56%K -436.42%G +0.000% | 24.00I 4.17%NM 4.08%EV +152.43%E +6.35%K +6.63%G +10.10% | 2.2% | 2026-03-21 18:25 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 95.41%EV -9.62%E -9.53%K -962.32%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.59%EV +120.88%E +5.76%K +6.04%G +7.31% | 3.8% | 2026-03-21 18:35 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -8.73%E -8.56%K -436.42%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV +57.77%E +3.85%K +4.13%G +2.38% | 4.7% | 2026-03-21 18:34 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -8.73%E -8.56%K -436.42%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV +57.77%E +3.85%K +4.13%G +2.38% | 4.7% | 2026-03-21 18:34 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -8.73%E -8.56%K -436.42%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV +57.77%E +3.85%K +4.13%G +2.38% | 4.7% | 2026-03-21 18:34 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -8.73%E -8.56%K -436.42%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV +57.77%E +3.85%K +4.13%G +2.38% | 4.7% | 2026-03-21 18:34 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.21%EV -8.73%E -8.56%K -436.42%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.79%EV +47.25%E +3.38%K +3.63%G +1.72% | 5.2% | 2026-03-21 18:34 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -7.83%E -7.61%K -261.12%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV +36.73%E +2.83%K +3.06%G +1.12% | 4.8% | 2026-03-21 18:32 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -8.73%E -8.56%K -436.42%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV +36.73%E +2.83%K +3.06%G +1.12% | 5.7% | 2026-03-21 18:34 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -8.73%E -8.56%K -436.42%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV +36.73%E +2.83%K +3.06%G +1.12% | 5.7% | 2026-03-21 18:34 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -8.73%E -8.56%K -436.42%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV +36.73%E +2.83%K +3.06%G +1.12% | 5.7% | 2026-03-21 18:34 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -8.73%E -8.56%K -436.42%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV +36.73%E +2.83%K +3.06%G +1.12% | 5.7% | 2026-03-21 18:34 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 92.79%EV -9.62%E -9.53%K -962.32%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV +36.73%E +2.83%K +3.06%G +1.12% | 6.7% | 2026-03-21 18:29 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 92.24%EV -9.62%E -9.53%K -962.32%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.76%EV +26.22%E +2.18%K +2.38%G +0.625% | 7.3% | 2026-03-21 18:34 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.04%EV -8.73%E -8.56%K -436.42%G +0.000% | 11.80I 8.47%NM 7.96%EV +24.11%E +2.04%K +2.23%G +0.538% | 6.5% | 2026-03-21 18:33 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -6.04%E -5.76%K -120.88%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV +15.70%E +1.43%K +1.57%G +0.246% | 4.3% | 2026-03-21 18:23 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -6.94%E -6.67%K -173.47%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV +5.18%E +0.518%K +0.576%G +0.030% | 6.2% | 2026-03-21 18:23 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -6.94%E -6.67%K -173.47%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV +5.18%E +0.518%K +0.576%G +0.030% | 6.2% | 2026-03-21 18:23 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 90.66%EV -7.83%E -7.61%K -261.12%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.34%EV +5.18%E +0.518%K +0.576%G +0.030% | 7.1% | 2026-03-21 18:23 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 90.30%EV -8.73%E -8.56%K -436.42%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.70%EV -0.079%E -0.008%K -0.009%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-21 18:33 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -4.25%E -3.98%K -60.78%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV -5.34%E -0.593%K -0.667%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-21 18:04 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -4.25%E -3.98%K -60.78%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV -5.34%E -0.593%K -0.667%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-21 18:04 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 88.63%EV -2.46%E -2.26%K -27.39%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.37%EV -10.60%E -1.25%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-03-21 18:15 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -4.25%E -3.98%K -60.78%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -10.60%E -1.25%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-21 18:20 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.42%EV -3.36%E -3.11%K -41.99%G +0.000% | 8.25I 12.12%NM 11.58%EV -13.23%E -1.60%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-21 18:14 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 88.16%EV -1.57%E -1.43%K -15.70%G +0.000% | 8.19I 12.21%NM 11.84%EV -13.86%E -1.69%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-03-21 13:40 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 87.57%EV -1.57%E -1.43%K -15.70%G +0.000% | 7.75I 12.90%NM 12.43%EV -18.49%E -2.39%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-03-21 13:39 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 87.21%EV -1.57%E -1.43%K -15.70%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.79%EV -21.11%E -2.82%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-21 17:05 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -2.46%E -2.26%K -27.39%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV -21.11%E -2.82%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-21 18:15 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -1.57%E -1.43%K -15.70%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -26.37%E -3.77%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-21 16:29 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -1.57%E -1.43%K -15.70%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -26.37%E -3.77%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-21 14:04 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 86.53%EV -2.46%E -2.26%K -27.39%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV -26.37%E -3.77%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-21 17:04 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -3.36%E -3.11%K -41.99%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -26.37%E -3.77%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-21 17:04 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 86.38%EV -3.36%E -3.11%K -41.99%G +0.000% | 6.85I 14.60%NM 13.62%EV -27.95%E -4.08%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-21 18:15 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -0.675%E -0.608%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -31.63%E -4.87%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-20 01:39 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.58%EV +1.11%E +0.986%K +8.57%G +0.096% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.42%EV -39.52%E -6.87%K -8.32%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-19 08:30 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.11I 90.09%NM 89.44% | 9.40I 10.64%NM 10.56% | 0.7% | 2026-03-21 18:16 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.01I 99.01%NM 98.02% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.98% | 1.0% | 2026-03-21 18:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.01I 99.01%NM 98.02% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.98% | 1.0% | 2026-03-21 18:34 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.10I 90.91%NM 89.11% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.89% | 2.0% | 2026-03-21 18:17 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.01I 99.01%NM 96.26% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.74% | 2.9% | 2026-03-21 18:34 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.01I 99.01%NM 96.26% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.74% | 2.9% | 2026-03-21 18:30 |
| Novig◎ | 1.00I 100.00%NM 77.78% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 22.22% | 28.6% | 2026-03-21 18:34 |