The School of Odds
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Mansur Abdul-Malik v Dustin Stoltzfus

2026-08-16 02:00 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Mansur Abdul-Malik (Local)

Prediction 81.10%1.23fair odd
EV -2.68%
Edge -2.23%
Kelly -13.41%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
78.57%81.03%81.17%81.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.151.171.181.2086.96%85.18%84.75%83.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Dustin Stoltzfus (Visit)

Prediction 18.90%5.29fair odd
EV -2.66%
Edge -0.516%
Kelly -0.641%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.64%18.97%18.83%21.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.404.945.005.1522.73%20.25%20.00%19.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Mansur Abdul-Malik (Local): 81.10%; Dustin Stoltzfus (Visit): 18.90%. For Dustin Stoltzfus (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.29. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 5.15, with an expected value of -2.66%; they do not produce positive expected value.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
PlayUp1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -2.68%E -2.23%K -13.41%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -16.83%E -3.83%K -4.95%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-04 17:09
Pinnacle1.19I 84.03%NM 81.17%EV -3.49%E -2.93%K -18.38%G +0.000%5.13I 19.49%NM 18.83%EV -3.04%E -0.592%K -0.735%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-04 18:20
BetOnline.ag1.18I 84.75%NM 81.36%EV -4.30%E -3.65%K -23.91%G +0.000%5.15I 19.42%NM 18.64%EV -2.66%E -0.516%K -0.641%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-04 13:19
DraftKings1.18I 84.75%NM 81.21%EV -4.30%E -3.65%K -23.91%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.79%EV -3.60%E -0.707%K -0.879%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-04 21:09
PointsBet (AU)1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.30%E -3.65%K -23.91%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -5.49%E -1.10%K -1.37%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-04 15:24
Caesars1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.30%E -3.65%K -23.91%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -5.49%E -1.10%K -1.37%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-04 22:15
Betr (AU)1.17I 85.47%NM 80.56%EV -5.11%E -4.37%K -30.08%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.44%EV -8.33%E -1.72%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-04 15:24
Unibet (UK)1.16I 86.21%NM 80.37%EV -5.93%E -5.11%K -37.03%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV -10.22%E -2.15%K -2.73%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-04 21:15
Betsson1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -6.74%E -5.86%K -44.91%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -5.49%E -1.10%K -1.37%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-04 20:39
NordicBet1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -6.74%E -5.86%K -44.91%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -5.49%E -1.10%K -1.37%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-04 20:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig1.15I 86.96%NM 80.93%4.88I 20.49%NM 19.07%7.4%2026-08-04 21:10

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet1.17I 85.47%NM 79.50%5.26I 19.01%NM 17.68%33.00I 3.03%NM 2.82%7.5%2026-08-04 19:50