Language:English
Mansur Abdul-Malik v Dustin Stoltzfus
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Mansur Abdul-Malik (Local)
Prediction 84.05%1.19fair odd
EV -3.34%
Edge -2.91%
Kelly -22.28%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.15
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
81.58%84.16%84.09%86.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.081.131.141.1592.59%88.42%87.72%86.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Dustin Stoltzfus (Visit)
Prediction 15.95%6.27fair odd
EV +11.65%
Edge +1.66%
Kelly +1.94%
Growth +0.226%
assuming max odds 7.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.58%15.84%15.91%18.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.055.905.807.0019.80%16.95%17.24%14.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Mansur Abdul-Malik (Local): 84.05%; Dustin Stoltzfus (Visit): 15.95%. For Dustin Stoltzfus (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.27. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +11.65%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (39 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betsson🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -7.54%E -6.86%K -75.45%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +11.65%E +1.66%K +1.94%G +0.226% | 5.2% | 2026-08-16 01:44 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -7.54%E -6.86%K -75.45%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +11.65%E +1.66%K +1.94%G +0.226% | 5.2% | 2026-08-16 01:44 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -5.86%E -5.24%K -48.86%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV +3.67%E +0.565%K +0.668%G +0.025% | 4.7% | 2026-08-16 00:12 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -5.86%E -5.24%K -48.86%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV +3.67%E +0.565%K +0.668%G +0.025% | 4.7% | 2026-08-16 01:35 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -5.86%E -5.24%K -48.86%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -0.315%E -0.050%K -0.060%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-16 01:20 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.47%EV -4.18%E -3.67%K -29.88%G +0.000% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.53%EV -1.11%E -0.179%K -0.214%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-16 01:45 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 84.31%EV -3.34%E -2.91%K -22.28%G +0.000% | 6.18I 16.18%NM 15.69%EV -1.43%E -0.232%K -0.276%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-08-16 01:50 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.36%EV -4.18%E -3.67%K -29.88%G +0.000% | 6.15I 16.26%NM 15.64%EV -1.91%E -0.311%K -0.371%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-15 22:09 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.25%EV -4.18%E -3.67%K -29.88%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.75%EV -2.71%E -0.444%K -0.531%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-16 01:39 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.49%EV -5.86%E -5.24%K -48.86%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.51%EV -2.71%E -0.444%K -0.531%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-16 01:44 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.49%EV -5.86%E -5.24%K -48.86%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.51%EV -2.71%E -0.444%K -0.531%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-16 01:44 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -4.18%E -3.67%K -29.88%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV -4.30%E -0.717%K -0.861%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-16 01:04 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -5.02%E -4.45%K -38.64%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -4.30%E -0.717%K -0.861%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-16 01:49 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -5.02%E -4.45%K -38.64%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -4.30%E -0.717%K -0.861%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-16 01:19 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -5.02%E -4.45%K -38.64%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -4.30%E -0.717%K -0.861%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-16 01:40 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.80%EV -3.34%E -2.91%K -22.28%G +0.000% | 5.95I 16.81%NM 16.20%EV -5.10%E -0.857%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-16 01:43 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.69%EV -3.34%E -2.91%K -22.28%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.31%EV -5.90%E -1.000%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-08-16 01:44 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -4.18%E -3.67%K -29.88%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV -7.49%E -1.29%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-14 03:25 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -4.18%E -3.67%K -29.88%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV -7.49%E -1.29%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-14 03:25 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -4.18%E -3.67%K -29.88%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV -7.49%E -1.29%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-14 03:24 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -4.18%E -3.67%K -29.88%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV -7.49%E -1.29%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-14 03:24 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -4.18%E -3.67%K -29.88%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV -7.49%E -1.29%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-14 03:20 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -4.18%E -3.67%K -29.88%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV -7.49%E -1.29%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-14 03:20 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -4.18%E -3.67%K -29.88%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV -7.49%E -1.29%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-14 03:25 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -4.18%E -3.67%K -29.88%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV -7.49%E -1.29%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-14 03:24 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -4.18%E -3.67%K -29.88%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV -7.49%E -1.29%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-14 15:14 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.82%EV -5.86%E -5.24%K -48.86%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.18%EV -7.49%E -1.29%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-15 14:24 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -4.18%E -3.67%K -29.88%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -8.29%E -1.44%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-14 03:25 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -4.18%E -3.67%K -29.88%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -8.29%E -1.44%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-14 22:29 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.58%EV -5.02%E -4.45%K -38.64%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.42%EV -8.29%E -1.44%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-15 22:14 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 83.46%EV -6.70%E -6.04%K -60.95%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.54%EV -10.68%E -1.91%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-15 12:08 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 83.46%EV -6.70%E -6.04%K -60.95%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.54%EV -10.68%E -1.91%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-16 01:35 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -3.34%E -2.91%K -22.28%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -12.28%E -2.23%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-16 01:44 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -4.18%E -3.67%K -29.88%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -12.28%E -2.23%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-16 01:39 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -4.18%E -3.67%K -29.88%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -12.28%E -2.23%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-16 01:40 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -4.18%E -3.67%K -29.88%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -12.28%E -2.23%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-16 01:40 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 82.68%EV -6.70%E -6.04%K -60.95%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.32%EV -15.47%E -2.92%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-16 01:44 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 83.07%EV -9.23%E -8.54%K -115.32%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 16.93%EV -15.47%E -2.92%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-08-14 03:25 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.58%EV -4.18%E -3.67%K -29.88%G +0.000% | 5.05I 19.80%NM 18.42%EV -19.45%E -3.85%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-15 18:24 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.17I 85.47%NM 85.32% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.68% | 0.2% | 2026-08-16 01:37 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.17I 85.47%NM 84.94% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 15.06% | 0.6% | 2026-08-16 01:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.17I 85.47%NM 84.94% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 15.06% | 0.6% | 2026-08-16 01:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.17I 85.47%NM 84.94% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 15.06% | 0.6% | 2026-08-16 01:50 |
| Novig◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 84.12% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.88% | 0.7% | 2026-08-16 01:45 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.16I 86.21%NM 85.19% | 6.67I 14.99%NM 14.81% | 1.2% | 2026-08-16 01:40 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.17I 85.47%NM 83.68% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.32% | 2.1% | 2026-08-16 01:50 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.45% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.55% | 4.2% | 2026-08-16 01:50 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 82.92% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.22% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.86% | 7.7% | 2026-08-15 14:24 |