Language:English
Manon Fiorot v Alexa Grasso
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Manon Fiorot (Local)
Prediction 70.88%1.41fair odd
EV -2.90%
Edge -2.12%
Kelly -7.84%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.37
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.81%70.86%70.66%72.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.251.341.351.3780.00%74.63%74.07%72.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Alexa Grasso (Visit)
Prediction 29.12%3.43fair odd
EV +1.94%
Edge +0.553%
Kelly +0.775%
Growth +0.015%
assuming max odds 3.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.39%29.14%29.34%31.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.853.243.203.5035.09%30.87%31.25%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Manon Fiorot (Local): 70.88%; Alexa Grasso (Visit): 29.12%. For Alexa Grasso (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.43. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.94%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (41 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bovada🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.46%EV -5.74%E -4.31%K -17.38%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.54%EV +1.94%E +0.553%K +0.775%G +0.015% | 3.8% | 2026-09-12 22:14 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%EV -6.44%E -4.88%K -20.14%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%EV +1.94%E +0.553%K +0.775%G +0.015% | 4.3% | 2026-09-12 17:21 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%EV -6.44%E -4.88%K -20.14%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%EV +1.94%E +0.553%K +0.775%G +0.015% | 4.3% | 2026-09-12 17:20 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.29%EV -5.74%E -4.31%K -17.38%G +0.000% | 3.47I 28.82%NM 27.71%EV +1.06%E +0.306%K +0.430%G +0.005% | 4.0% | 2026-09-12 17:26 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.23%EV -5.74%E -4.31%K -17.38%G +0.000% | 3.46I 28.90%NM 27.77%EV +0.772%E +0.223%K +0.314%G +0.002% | 4.1% | 2026-09-12 17:30 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 71.82%EV -4.32%E -3.20%K -12.34%G +0.000% | 3.44I 29.07%NM 28.18%EV +0.189%E +0.055%K +0.078%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-09-12 22:15 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -5.74%E -4.31%K -17.38%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -0.976%E -0.287%K -0.406%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-12 17:21 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -6.44%E -4.88%K -20.14%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -0.976%E -0.287%K -0.406%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-12 17:31 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.43%EV -5.03%E -3.75%K -14.79%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.57%EV -2.43%E -0.726%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-12 22:15 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -5.74%E -4.31%K -17.38%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -2.43%E -0.726%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-12 17:20 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 71.22%EV -4.32%E -3.20%K -12.34%G +0.000% | 3.34I 29.94%NM 28.78%EV -2.72%E -0.815%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-12 17:10 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.82%EV -3.61%E -2.65%K -10.03%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.18%EV -3.89%E -1.18%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-12 15:40 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -5.74%E -4.31%K -17.38%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -3.89%E -1.18%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-12 17:25 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -5.74%E -4.31%K -17.38%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -3.89%E -1.18%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-12 21:10 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -6.44%E -4.88%K -20.14%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -3.89%E -1.18%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-12 22:05 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.71%EV -8.57%E -6.64%K -29.56%G +0.000% | 3.27I 30.58%NM 28.29%EV -4.76%E -1.46%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-09-12 20:39 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -3.61%E -2.65%K -10.03%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -5.34%E -1.64%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -5.03%E -3.75%K -14.79%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -5.34%E -1.64%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-12 22:06 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.27%EV -7.15%E -5.46%K -23.08%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.73%EV -5.34%E -1.64%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-12 22:10 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.39%EV -4.32%E -3.20%K -12.34%G +0.000% | 3.21I 31.15%NM 29.61%EV -6.51%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-12 17:50 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 70.02%EV -2.90%E -2.12%K -7.84%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.98%EV -6.80%E -2.13%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -3.61%E -2.65%K -10.03%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -6.80%E -2.13%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-12 22:05 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -4.32%E -3.20%K -12.34%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -6.80%E -2.13%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -4.32%E -3.20%K -12.34%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -6.80%E -2.13%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-12 22:05 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -4.32%E -3.20%K -12.34%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -6.80%E -2.13%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-12 22:05 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -4.32%E -3.20%K -12.34%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -6.80%E -2.13%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-12 22:05 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -4.32%E -3.20%K -12.34%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -6.80%E -2.13%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-12 22:05 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -4.32%E -3.20%K -12.34%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -6.80%E -2.13%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-12 22:05 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -4.32%E -3.20%K -12.34%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -6.80%E -2.13%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-12 22:05 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -4.32%E -3.20%K -12.34%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -6.80%E -2.13%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-12 22:05 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -4.32%E -3.20%K -12.34%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -6.80%E -2.13%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-12 22:05 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00%EV -4.32%E -3.20%K -12.34%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%EV -8.26%E -2.62%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-12 22:15 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.31%EV -5.74%E -4.31%K -17.38%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.69%EV -8.26%E -2.62%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-12 22:15 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.09%EV -5.03%E -3.75%K -14.79%G +0.000% | 3.14I 31.85%NM 29.91%EV -8.55%E -2.72%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-12 22:10 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -2.90%E -2.12%K -7.84%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -9.71%E -3.13%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -3.61%E -2.65%K -10.03%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -9.71%E -3.13%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-12 15:55 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -3.61%E -2.65%K -10.03%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -12.63%E -4.21%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -3.61%E -2.65%K -10.03%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -12.63%E -4.21%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -3.61%E -2.65%K -10.03%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -12.63%E -4.21%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-12 18:40 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.12%EV -5.03%E -3.75%K -14.79%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.88%EV -12.63%E -4.21%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-12 17:31 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 69.51%EV -11.41%E -9.12%K -45.62%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 30.49%EV -16.99%E -5.96%K -9.19%G +0.000% | 15.1% | 2026-09-12 22:05 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.37I 72.99%NM 72.87% | 3.68I 27.17%NM 27.13% | 0.2% | 2026-09-12 22:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.40I 71.43%NM 70.53% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.47% | 1.3% | 2026-09-12 22:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.40I 71.43%NM 70.53% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.47% | 1.3% | 2026-09-12 22:15 |
| Novig◎ | 1.40I 71.43%NM 70.40% | 3.33I 30.03%NM 29.60% | 1.5% | 2026-09-12 22:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.38I 72.46%NM 71.13% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.87% | 1.9% | 2026-09-12 22:15 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.39I 71.94%NM 70.55% | 3.33I 30.03%NM 29.45% | 2.0% | 2026-09-12 21:40 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.36I 73.53%NM 71.73% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.27% | 2.5% | 2026-09-12 22:15 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.43% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.57% | 4.5% | 2026-09-12 22:14 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.69% | 3.19I 31.35%NM 29.28% | 46.00I 2.17%NM 2.03% | 7.1% | 2026-09-12 22:09 |