Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Manoel Sousa v Richie Miranda

2026-08-09 00:00 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

70%

30%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Manoel Sousa (Local)

Prediction 69.91%1.43fair odd

EV -3.53%

Edge -2.56%

Kelly -9.28%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

68.49%69.91%69.91%70.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.351.371.371.3874.07%73.17%72.99%72.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Richie Miranda (Visit)

Prediction 30.09%3.32fair odd

EV -3.10%

Edge -0.964%

Kelly -1.40%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.22

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

29.85%30.09%30.09%31.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.003.113.103.2233.33%32.19%32.26%31.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Manoel Sousa (Local): 69.91%; Richie Miranda (Visit): 30.09%. For Richie Miranda (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.32. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.22, with an expected value of -3.10%; they do not produce positive expected value.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
PlayUp	1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -3.53%E -2.56%K -9.28%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -9.72%E -3.24%K -4.86%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-08-02 14:04
BetOnline.ag	1.37I 72.99%NM 70.15%EV -4.23%E -3.08%K -11.42%G +0.000%	3.22I 31.06%NM 29.85%EV -3.10%E -0.964%K -1.40%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-08-02 13:59
Unibet (UK)	1.35I 74.07%NM 69.66%EV -5.62%E -4.17%K -16.07%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -6.71%E -2.17%K -3.20%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-08-02 13:59

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Kalshi	1.43I 69.93%NM 66.03%	2.78I 35.97%NM 33.97%	5.9%	2026-08-02 14:30

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3	Margin ▲	Updated
1xBet	1.36I 73.53%NM 68.51%	3.25I 30.77%NM 28.67%	33.00I 3.03%NM 2.82%	7.3%	2026-08-02 14:00