Language:English
Manoel Sousa v Richie Miranda
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Manoel Sousa (Local)
Prediction 74.24%1.35fair odd
EV -2.01%
Edge -1.52%
Kelly -6.27%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.32
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
72.34%74.15%74.40%75.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.221.281.291.3281.97%77.96%77.82%75.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Richie Miranda (Visit)
Prediction 25.76%3.88fair odd
EV +0.469%
Edge +0.120%
Kelly +0.162%
Growth +0.001%
assuming max odds 3.90
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.66%25.85%25.60%27.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.683.703.9029.41%27.15%27.03%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Manoel Sousa (Local): 74.24%; Richie Miranda (Visit): 25.76%. For Richie Miranda (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.88. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.469%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (34 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 75.14%EV -4.23%E -3.28%K -14.59%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.86%EV +0.469%E +0.120%K +0.162%G +0.001% | 3.2% | 2026-08-08 22:15 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.34%EV -5.72%E -4.50%K -21.17%G +0.000% | 3.88I 25.77%NM 24.66%EV -0.046%E -0.012%K -0.016%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-08 22:14 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 75.05%EV -4.97%E -3.89%K -17.77%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.95%EV -0.819%E -0.213%K -0.287%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-08 22:15 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 74.51%EV -3.49%E -2.68%K -11.63%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.49%EV -2.11%E -0.554%K -0.752%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-08-08 22:13 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.80%EV -4.97%E -3.89%K -17.77%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.20%EV -2.11%E -0.554%K -0.752%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-08 22:14 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.80%EV -4.97%E -3.89%K -17.77%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.20%EV -2.11%E -0.554%K -0.752%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-08 22:14 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.72%E -4.50%K -21.17%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -2.11%E -0.554%K -0.752%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-08 22:14 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.72%E -4.50%K -21.17%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -2.11%E -0.554%K -0.752%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-08 22:15 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.72%E -4.50%K -21.17%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -2.11%E -0.554%K -0.752%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-08 22:14 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.72%E -4.50%K -21.17%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -2.11%E -0.554%K -0.752%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-08 22:15 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.72%E -4.50%K -21.17%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -2.11%E -0.554%K -0.752%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-08 22:14 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.72%E -4.50%K -21.17%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -2.11%E -0.554%K -0.752%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-08 22:15 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -4.23%E -3.28%K -14.59%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -3.39%E -0.905%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-08 22:07 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -4.97%E -3.89%K -17.77%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -3.39%E -0.905%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-08 22:15 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -4.97%E -3.89%K -17.77%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -3.39%E -0.905%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-08 22:14 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.85%EV -6.46%E -5.13%K -24.84%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -3.39%E -0.905%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-08 20:45 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 74.00%EV -3.49%E -2.68%K -11.63%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.00%EV -4.68%E -1.27%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-08 10:30 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 74.00%EV -3.49%E -2.68%K -11.63%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.00%EV -4.68%E -1.27%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-08 10:30 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.15%EV -4.23%E -3.28%K -14.59%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.85%EV -4.68%E -1.27%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-08 22:05 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.45%EV -5.72%E -4.50%K -21.17%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -4.68%E -1.27%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-08 19:54 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.74%EV -3.49%E -2.68%K -11.63%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.26%EV -5.97%E -1.64%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-08 15:35 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.78%EV -4.23%E -3.28%K -14.59%G +0.000% | 3.63I 27.55%NM 26.22%EV -6.49%E -1.79%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-08 15:34 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -4.23%E -3.28%K -14.59%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -7.26%E -2.02%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-08 19:24 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -4.23%E -3.28%K -14.59%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -7.26%E -2.02%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-08 19:29 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -4.97%E -3.89%K -17.77%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -7.26%E -2.02%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-08 20:50 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -6.46%E -5.13%K -24.84%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -7.26%E -2.02%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-08 22:10 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.35%EV -4.23%E -3.28%K -14.59%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.65%EV -8.55%E -2.41%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-08 19:25 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.35%EV -4.23%E -3.28%K -14.59%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.65%EV -8.55%E -2.41%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-08 19:24 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.35%EV -4.23%E -3.28%K -14.59%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.65%EV -8.55%E -2.41%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-08 19:24 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.84%EV -2.01%E -1.52%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 3.54I 28.25%NM 27.16%EV -8.80%E -2.49%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-06 15:30 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -3.49%E -2.68%K -11.63%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -9.84%E -2.81%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-06 08:14 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 73.88%EV -9.43%E -7.73%K -42.86%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.12%EV -11.12%E -3.22%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-08-08 22:15 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -3.49%E -2.68%K -11.63%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -12.41%E -3.65%K -5.17%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-08 15:35 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -3.49%E -2.68%K -11.63%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -12.41%E -3.65%K -5.17%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-08 15:34 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.31I 76.34%NM 76.14% | 4.18I 23.92%NM 23.86% | 0.3% | 2026-08-08 22:15 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.31I 76.34%NM 76.01% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 23.99% | 0.4% | 2026-08-08 22:15 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.33I 75.19%NM 74.81% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.19% | 0.5% | 2026-08-08 22:15 |
| Novig◎ | 1.29I 77.52%NM 77.13% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.87% | 0.5% | 2026-08-08 22:15 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.30I 76.92%NM 76.23% | 4.17I 23.98%NM 23.77% | 0.9% | 2026-08-08 22:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.33I 75.19%NM 74.32% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.68% | 1.2% | 2026-08-08 22:14 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.33I 75.19%NM 74.32% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.68% | 1.2% | 2026-08-08 22:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.31I 76.34%NM 75.10% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.90% | 1.7% | 2026-08-08 22:14 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.50% | 3.46I 28.90%NM 26.66% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.84% | 8.4% | 2026-08-08 19:45 |
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