Language:English
Manel Kape v Kyoji Horiguchi
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Manel Kape (Local)
Prediction 60.14%1.66fair odd
EV -1.97%
Edge -1.21%
Kelly -3.13%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.63
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.05%60.24%60.25%63.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.521.581.581.6365.79%63.16%63.29%61.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Kyoji Horiguchi (Visit)
Prediction 39.86%2.51fair odd
EV +3.64%
Edge +1.40%
Kelly +2.27%
Growth +0.083%
assuming max odds 2.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.89%39.76%39.75%41.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.392.352.6045.45%41.86%42.55%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Manel Kape (Local): 60.14%; Kyoji Horiguchi (Visit): 39.86%. For Kyoji Horiguchi (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.51. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.64%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.80%EV -7.38%E -4.79%K -13.67%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.20%EV +3.64%E +1.40%K +2.27%G +0.083% | 3.4% | 2026-06-21 01:49 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 63.11%EV -8.59%E -5.65%K -16.51%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.89%EV +3.64%E +1.40%K +2.27%G +0.083% | 4.3% | 2026-06-21 01:49 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 63.11%EV -8.59%E -5.65%K -16.51%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.89%EV +3.64%E +1.40%K +2.27%G +0.083% | 4.3% | 2026-06-21 01:48 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -7.99%E -5.22%K -15.07%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV +1.64%E +0.644%K +1.06%G +0.017% | 4.6% | 2026-06-21 01:49 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.25%EV -7.38%E -4.79%K -13.67%G +0.000% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 37.75%EV +1.24%E +0.490%K +0.808%G +0.010% | 4.3% | 2026-06-21 01:50 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 61.37%EV -4.98%E -3.15%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 2.51I 39.84%NM 38.63%EV +0.048%E +0.019%K +0.032%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-06-21 01:40 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -7.99%E -5.22%K -15.07%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -0.351%E -0.140%K -0.234%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-21 01:49 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.99%EV -4.98%E -3.15%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 2.47I 40.49%NM 39.01%EV -1.55%E -0.626%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-06-21 01:49 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.79%EV -4.98%E -3.15%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.21%EV -2.34%E -0.957%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-06-20 21:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.79%EV -4.98%E -3.15%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.21%EV -2.34%E -0.957%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-06-20 21:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -5.58%E -3.55%K -9.79%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -2.34%E -0.957%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-06-21 01:38 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -5.58%E -3.55%K -9.79%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -2.34%E -0.957%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-06-21 01:49 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -6.78%E -4.38%K -12.33%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -2.34%E -0.957%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-21 01:39 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.45%EV -4.38%E -2.75%K -7.42%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.55%EV -3.14%E -1.29%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-06-21 01:20 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.20%EV -3.78%E -2.36%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.80%EV -3.54%E -1.46%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-06-21 00:50 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.55%EV -5.58%E -3.55%K -9.79%G +0.000% | 2.41I 41.49%NM 39.45%EV -3.94%E -1.63%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-06-21 00:40 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -4.98%E -3.15%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -4.34%E -1.81%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-21 01:49 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.58%E -3.55%K -9.79%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.13%E -2.16%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-06-21 00:39 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 59.05%EV -1.97%E -1.21%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.95%EV -6.33%E -2.69%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-06-14 15:00 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.78%E -2.36%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -6.33%E -2.69%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-06-21 01:29 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.58%E -3.55%K -9.79%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -6.33%E -2.69%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-06-21 00:20 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -6.18%E -3.96%K -11.04%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -6.33%E -2.69%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-06-21 01:49 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -2.57%E -1.59%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -8.32%E -3.62%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-06-20 20:30 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -2.57%E -1.59%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -8.32%E -3.62%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-06-20 20:30 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -2.57%E -1.59%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -8.32%E -3.62%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-06-20 20:29 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -2.57%E -1.59%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -8.32%E -3.62%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-06-20 20:29 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -2.57%E -1.59%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -8.32%E -3.62%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-06-20 20:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -2.57%E -1.59%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -8.32%E -3.62%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-06-20 20:30 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -2.57%E -1.59%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -8.32%E -3.62%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-06-20 20:29 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -2.57%E -1.59%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -8.32%E -3.62%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-06-20 20:30 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -3.17%E -1.97%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -8.32%E -3.62%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-16 20:10 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -3.78%E -2.36%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -8.32%E -3.62%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-06-20 20:19 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -3.78%E -2.36%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -8.32%E -3.62%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-06-16 12:30 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 59.90%EV -7.38%E -4.79%K -13.67%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.10%EV -8.32%E -3.62%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-06-21 01:50 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.76%EV -3.78%E -2.36%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.24%EV -9.12%E -4.00%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-06-20 21:59 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -2.57%E -1.59%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -10.32%E -4.58%K -8.25%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-06-21 01:48 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 58.05%EV -4.38%E -2.75%K -7.42%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.95%EV -12.31%E -5.59%K -10.26%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-06-20 17:09 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.66I 60.24%NM 60.19% | 2.51I 39.84%NM 39.81% | 0.1% | 2026-06-21 01:43 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.60I 62.50%NM 62.44% | 2.66I 37.59%NM 37.56% | 0.1% | 2026-06-21 01:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.62I 61.73%NM 61.61% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 38.39% | 0.2% | 2026-06-21 01:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.62I 61.73%NM 61.61% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 38.39% | 0.2% | 2026-06-21 01:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.62I 61.73%NM 61.61% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 38.39% | 0.2% | 2026-06-21 01:30 |
| Novig◎ | 1.60I 62.50%NM 62.17% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 37.83% | 0.5% | 2026-06-21 01:50 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.61I 62.11%NM 61.39% | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.61% | 1.2% | 2026-06-21 01:50 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.23% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.77% | 4.0% | 2026-06-21 01:50 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.43% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.70% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.87% | 6.8% | 2026-06-20 22:00 |