Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Manel Kape v Joshua Van

2026-12-27 03:00 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

1 sportsbook (1 in analysis )

54%

46%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Manel Kape (Local)

Prediction 54.26%1.84fair odd

EV -3.95%

Edge -2.23%

Kelly -5.13%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

54.26%54.26%54.26%54.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.771.771.771.7756.50%56.50%56.50%56.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Joshua Van (Visit)

Prediction 45.74%2.19fair odd

EV -3.95%

Edge -1.88%

Kelly -3.59%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

45.74%45.74%45.74%45.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.102.102.102.1047.62%47.62%47.62%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Manel Kape (Local): 54.26%; Joshua Van (Visit): 45.74%. For Joshua Van (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.19. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.10, with an expected value of -3.95%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (1 sportsbook)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.95%E -2.23%K -5.13%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -3.95%E -1.88%K -3.59%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-09-20 14:24

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.