Language:English
Malcolm Wellmaker v Otari Tanzilovi
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Malcolm Wellmaker (Local)
Prediction 63.59%1.57fair odd
EV -1.44%
Edge -0.928%
Kelly -2.62%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.55
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.50%63.82%63.70%66.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.361.481.481.5573.53%67.66%67.57%64.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Otari Tanzilovi (Visit)
Prediction 36.41%2.75fair odd
EV +5.59%
Edge +1.93%
Kelly +2.94%
Growth +0.165%
assuming max odds 2.90
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.03%36.18%36.30%37.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.652.652.9041.67%37.80%37.74%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Malcolm Wellmaker (Local): 63.59%; Otari Tanzilovi (Visit): 36.41%. For Otari Tanzilovi (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.75. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.59%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (36 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -9.07%E -6.34%K -21.09%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV +5.59%E +1.93%K +2.94%G +0.165% | 4.4% | 2026-10-10 23:35 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.90%EV -10.34%E -7.33%K -25.22%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.10%EV +3.77%E +1.32%K +2.04%G +0.077% | 6.0% | 2026-10-10 23:35 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 65.57%EV -6.53%E -4.44%K -13.88%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.43%EV +1.95%E +0.698%K +1.09%G +0.021% | 3.7% | 2026-10-10 23:30 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -5.89%E -3.98%K -12.27%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV +0.133%E +0.048%K +0.076%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-10-11 00:10 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.69%EV -5.25%E -3.53%K -10.72%G +0.000% | 2.73I 36.63%NM 35.31%EV -0.595%E -0.218%K -0.344%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-10-11 00:10 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%EV -5.25%E -3.53%K -10.72%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.56%EV -1.69%E -0.625%K -0.993%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-11 00:06 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 65.53%EV -10.34%E -7.33%K -25.22%G +0.000% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 34.47%EV -2.42%E -0.902%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-10-10 23:55 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.79%EV -3.98%E -2.64%K -7.81%G +0.000% | 2.66I 37.59%NM 36.21%EV -3.14%E -1.18%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-10-11 00:10 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.94%EV -4.62%E -3.08%K -9.24%G +0.000% | 2.66I 37.59%NM 36.06%EV -3.14%E -1.18%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-10-11 00:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.25%EV -5.89%E -3.98%K -12.27%G +0.000% | 2.66I 37.59%NM 35.75%EV -3.14%E -1.18%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-10 23:55 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.70%EV -3.98%E -2.64%K -7.81%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.30%EV -3.51%E -1.32%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-10-11 00:10 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -4.62%E -3.08%K -9.24%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -3.51%E -1.32%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.89%E -3.98%K -12.27%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -3.51%E -1.32%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.89%E -3.98%K -12.27%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -3.51%E -1.32%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.89%E -3.98%K -12.27%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -3.51%E -1.32%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.89%E -3.98%K -12.27%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -3.51%E -1.32%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-10 13:59 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.89%E -3.98%K -12.27%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -3.51%E -1.32%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.89%E -3.98%K -12.27%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -3.51%E -1.32%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-10 14:01 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.89%E -3.98%K -12.27%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -3.51%E -1.32%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-10 14:01 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.89%E -3.98%K -12.27%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -3.51%E -1.32%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.89%E -3.98%K -12.27%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -3.51%E -1.32%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.89%E -3.98%K -12.27%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -3.51%E -1.32%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-10 14:01 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -6.53%E -4.44%K -13.88%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -3.51%E -1.32%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-10 22:50 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.61%EV -3.98%E -2.64%K -7.81%G +0.000% | 2.64I 37.88%NM 36.39%EV -3.87%E -1.47%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-10-10 22:45 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.62%EV -8.43%E -5.86%K -19.17%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 35.38%EV -4.24%E -1.61%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.62%EV -8.43%E -5.86%K -19.17%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 35.38%EV -4.24%E -1.61%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -8.43%E -5.86%K -19.17%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -4.60%E -1.76%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-10 13:59 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 62.65%EV -1.44%E -0.928%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.35%EV -5.33%E -2.05%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-10-11 00:01 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.62%E -3.08%K -9.24%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.33%E -2.05%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-10 23:35 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.62%E -3.08%K -9.24%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.33%E -2.05%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-10 22:35 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.62%E -3.08%K -9.24%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.33%E -2.05%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.77%EV -2.71%E -1.77%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 2.58I 38.76%NM 37.23%EV -6.06%E -2.35%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-10-10 23:35 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -3.35%E -2.20%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -7.15%E -2.80%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-10 23:30 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.62%E -3.08%K -9.24%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -8.97%E -3.59%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-10 23:50 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 62.50%EV -6.53%E -4.44%K -13.88%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.50%EV -10.79%E -4.40%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-10-10 23:30 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 63.83%EV -13.52%E -9.94%K -37.56%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 36.17%EV -12.61%E -5.25%K -9.01%G +0.000% | 15.2% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (9)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.54I 64.94%NM 64.84% | 2.84I 35.21%NM 35.16% | 0.1% | 2026-10-10 23:53 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.59I 62.89%NM 62.76% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 37.24% | 0.2% | 2026-10-11 00:10 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.53I 65.36%NM 64.83% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 35.17% | 0.8% | 2026-10-11 00:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.57I 63.69%NM 63.06% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 36.94% | 1.0% | 2026-10-11 00:10 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.57I 63.69%NM 63.06% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 36.94% | 1.0% | 2026-10-11 00:10 |
| Novig◎ | 1.56I 64.10%NM 63.38% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.62% | 1.1% | 2026-10-10 23:50 |
| Polymarket◎ | 1.56I 64.10%NM 63.38% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.62% | 1.1% | 2026-10-10 23:20 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.56I 64.10%NM 63.38% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.62% | 1.1% | 2026-10-10 23:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.56I 64.10%NM 63.21% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 36.79% | 1.4% | 2026-10-11 00:10 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.88% | 2.81I 35.59%NM 33.25% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.87% | 7.0% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |