Language:English
Malcolm Wellmaker v Juan Diaz
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Malcolm Wellmaker (Local)
Prediction 67.07%1.49fair odd
EV -2.08%
Edge -1.42%
Kelly -4.52%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.46
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.27%67.20%66.82%69.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.331.401.401.4675.19%71.33%71.68%68.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Juan Diaz (Visit)
Prediction 32.93%3.04fair odd
EV +2.09%
Edge +0.673%
Kelly +0.994%
Growth +0.021%
assuming max odds 3.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.57%32.80%33.18%34.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.652.963.013.1037.74%33.83%33.22%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Malcolm Wellmaker (Local): 67.07%; Juan Diaz (Visit): 32.93%. For Juan Diaz (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.04. 17 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.09%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -7.44%E -5.39%K -19.59%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV +2.09%E +0.673%K +0.994%G +0.021% | 4.7% | 2026-05-16 20:39 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -7.44%E -5.39%K -19.59%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV +0.440%E +0.144%K +0.215%G +0.001% | 5.3% | 2026-05-16 20:40 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -7.44%E -5.39%K -19.59%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV +0.440%E +0.144%K +0.215%G +0.001% | 5.3% | 2026-05-16 20:40 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -7.44%E -5.39%K -19.59%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV +0.440%E +0.144%K +0.215%G +0.001% | 5.3% | 2026-05-16 20:40 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -7.44%E -5.39%K -19.59%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV +0.440%E +0.144%K +0.215%G +0.001% | 5.3% | 2026-05-16 20:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -7.44%E -5.39%K -19.59%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV +0.440%E +0.144%K +0.215%G +0.001% | 5.3% | 2026-05-16 20:40 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -7.44%E -5.39%K -19.59%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV +0.440%E +0.144%K +0.215%G +0.001% | 5.3% | 2026-05-16 20:40 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -7.44%E -5.39%K -19.59%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV +0.440%E +0.144%K +0.215%G +0.001% | 5.3% | 2026-05-16 20:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -7.44%E -5.39%K -19.59%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV +0.440%E +0.144%K +0.215%G +0.001% | 5.3% | 2026-05-16 20:40 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -7.44%E -5.39%K -19.59%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV +0.440%E +0.144%K +0.215%G +0.001% | 5.3% | 2026-05-16 20:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -7.44%E -5.39%K -19.59%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV +0.440%E +0.144%K +0.215%G +0.001% | 5.3% | 2026-05-16 20:41 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -7.44%E -5.39%K -19.59%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV +0.440%E +0.144%K +0.215%G +0.001% | 5.3% | 2026-05-16 20:40 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -7.44%E -5.39%K -19.59%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV +0.440%E +0.144%K +0.215%G +0.001% | 5.3% | 2026-05-16 20:40 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -7.44%E -5.39%K -19.59%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV +0.440%E +0.144%K +0.215%G +0.001% | 5.3% | 2026-05-16 20:40 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -7.44%E -5.39%K -19.59%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV +0.440%E +0.144%K +0.215%G +0.001% | 5.3% | 2026-05-16 20:40 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -7.44%E -5.39%K -19.59%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV +0.440%E +0.144%K +0.215%G +0.001% | 5.3% | 2026-05-16 21:55 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -7.44%E -5.39%K -19.59%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV +0.440%E +0.144%K +0.215%G +0.001% | 5.3% | 2026-05-16 20:40 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.48%EV -6.77%E -4.87%K -17.37%G +0.000% | 3.02I 33.11%NM 31.52%EV -0.548%E -0.181%K -0.271%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-17 01:25 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.43%EV -10.80%E -8.12%K -32.72%G +0.000% | 3.02I 33.11%NM 30.57%EV -0.548%E -0.181%K -0.271%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-17 01:18 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -4.76%E -3.35%K -11.34%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -1.21%E -0.402%K -0.603%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-05-17 00:46 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.03%EV -5.43%E -3.85%K -13.25%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.97%EV -1.21%E -0.402%K -0.603%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-17 01:25 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -6.10%E -4.36%K -15.26%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -1.21%E -0.402%K -0.603%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-16 21:01 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.35%EV -4.09%E -2.86%K -9.52%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.65%EV -2.85%E -0.967%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-05-17 00:00 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.28%EV -4.09%E -2.86%K -9.52%G +0.000% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 32.72%EV -3.18%E -1.08%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-05-17 01:21 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -4.76%E -3.35%K -11.34%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -4.50%E -1.55%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-16 19:35 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 66.44%EV -2.08%E -1.42%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 2.89I 34.60%NM 33.56%EV -4.83%E -1.67%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-05-17 01:20 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.51%EV -2.75%E -1.90%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.49%EV -5.16%E -1.79%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-05-16 19:35 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -6.10%E -4.36%K -15.26%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -5.16%E -1.79%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-17 01:25 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -6.10%E -4.36%K -15.26%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -5.16%E -1.79%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-17 01:25 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.28%EV -2.75%E -1.90%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.72%EV -6.15%E -2.16%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-17 00:31 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -3.42%E -2.38%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -6.15%E -2.16%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-16 19:35 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -3.42%E -2.38%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -7.79%E -2.78%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-17 00:36 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -3.42%E -2.38%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -7.79%E -2.78%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-17 01:21 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -4.09%E -2.86%K -9.52%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -7.79%E -2.78%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-09 15:50 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -4.76%E -3.35%K -11.34%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -7.79%E -2.78%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-16 20:30 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.71%EV -3.42%E -2.38%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 2.76I 36.23%NM 34.29%EV -9.11%E -3.30%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-17 01:25 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -6.10%E -4.36%K -15.26%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -9.44%E -3.43%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-16 19:30 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 65.27%EV -5.43%E -3.85%K -13.25%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.73%EV -12.73%E -4.80%K -7.72%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-17 00:35 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.45I 68.97%NM 69.08% | 3.24I 30.86%NM 30.92% | -0.2% | 2026-05-17 01:23 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.45I 68.97%NM 68.82% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 31.18% | 0.2% | 2026-05-17 01:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.44I 69.44%NM 68.97% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 31.03% | 0.7% | 2026-05-17 01:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.44I 69.44%NM 68.97% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 31.03% | 0.7% | 2026-05-17 01:25 |
| Novig◎ | 1.45I 68.97%NM 68.27% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 31.73% | 1.0% | 2026-05-17 01:25 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.45I 68.97%NM 67.63% | 3.03I 33.00%NM 32.37% | 2.0% | 2026-05-17 01:25 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 68.08% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.92% | 2.7% | 2026-05-17 01:21 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 67.34% | 3.04I 32.89%NM 30.79% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.87% | 6.8% | 2026-05-16 20:10 |