The School of Odds

Magomed Zaynukov v Damian Rzepecki

2026-07-25 09:00 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

1 bookmaker(s) offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Magomed Zaynukov (Local)

Prediction 73.34%1.36fair odd
EV -3.93%
Edge -3.00%
Kelly -12.67%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.31

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
70.43%73.09%73.38%75.00%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.241.271.271.3181%78%79%76%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Damian Rzepecki (Visit)

Prediction 26.66%3.75fair odd
EV -0.020%
Edge -0.005%
Kelly -0.007%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.00%26.91%26.62%29.57%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.123.553.703.7532%28%27%27%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Betclic (FR)1.31I 76.34%NM 70.43%EV -3.93%E -3.00%K -12.67%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.57%EV -16.82%E -5.39%K -7.93%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-17 04:10
BetOnline.ag1.30I 76.92%NM 74.26%EV -4.66%E -3.58%K -15.53%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.74%EV -0.020%E -0.005%K -0.007%G +0.000%3.6%2026-07-17 04:10
BetUS1.30I 76.92%NM 74.00%EV -4.66%E -3.58%K -15.53%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.00%EV -1.35%E -0.366%K -0.501%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-17 04:10
Unibet (UK)1.27I 78.74%NM 73.38%EV -6.86%E -5.40%K -25.41%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -6.69%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-17 04:10
NordicBet1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -8.33%E -6.66%K -33.31%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -0.020%E -0.005%K -0.007%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-17 04:10
Betsson1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -8.33%E -6.66%K -33.31%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -0.020%E -0.005%K -0.007%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-17 04:10
Winamax (FR)1.24I 80.65%NM 72.38%EV -9.06%E -7.31%K -37.75%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.62%EV -13.35%E -4.11%K -5.93%G +0.000%11.4%2026-07-17 04:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Polymarket1.25I 80.00%NM 72.10%3.23I 30.96%NM 27.90%11.0%2026-07-17 06:15

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet1.33I 75.19%NM 72.07%3.83I 26.11%NM 25.03%33.00I 3.03%NM 2.90%4.3%2026-07-17 04:10