Language:English
Magomed Zaynukov v Damian Rzepecki
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Magomed Zaynukov (Local)
Prediction 69.12%1.45fair odd
EV -2.54%
Edge -1.80%
Kelly -6.19%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.41
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
67.15%69.26%69.16%73.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.301.361.361.4176.92%73.27%73.53%70.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Damian Rzepecki (Visit)
Prediction 30.88%3.24fair odd
EV +11.16%
Edge +3.10%
Kelly +4.29%
Growth +0.479%
assuming max odds 3.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.68%30.74%30.84%32.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.123.153.6035.71%32.07%31.75%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Magomed Zaynukov (Local): 69.12%; Damian Rzepecki (Visit): 30.88%. For Damian Rzepecki (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.24. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +11.16%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (36 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -9.45%E -7.21%K -30.49%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV +11.16%E +3.10%K +4.29%G +0.479% | 4.1% | 2026-07-25 11:49 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -9.45%E -7.21%K -30.49%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV +11.16%E +3.10%K +4.29%G +0.479% | 4.1% | 2026-07-25 11:55 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -6.00%E -4.41%K -16.65%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV +0.356%E +0.110%K +0.158%G +0.001% | 4.3% | 2026-07-25 14:30 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -8.07%E -6.07%K -24.45%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV +0.356%E +0.110%K +0.158%G +0.001% | 6.0% | 2026-07-25 17:10 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 70.02%EV -5.30%E -3.87%K -14.34%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.98%EV -1.19%E -0.371%K -0.540%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-07-25 16:59 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -6.00%E -4.41%K -16.65%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -1.19%E -0.371%K -0.540%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-07-25 16:59 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -6.00%E -4.41%K -16.65%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -1.19%E -0.371%K -0.540%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-07-25 12:19 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 69.43%EV -3.23%E -2.31%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 3.18I 31.45%NM 30.57%EV -1.81%E -0.568%K -0.828%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-07-25 17:05 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -6.00%E -4.41%K -16.65%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -2.73%E -0.867%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-25 17:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -6.00%E -4.41%K -16.65%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -2.73%E -0.867%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-25 12:19 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00%EV -6.69%E -4.95%K -19.10%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%EV -2.73%E -0.867%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-25 17:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00%EV -6.69%E -4.95%K -19.10%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%EV -2.73%E -0.867%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-25 17:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00%EV -6.69%E -4.95%K -19.10%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%EV -2.73%E -0.867%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-25 17:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00%EV -6.69%E -4.95%K -19.10%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%EV -2.73%E -0.867%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-25 17:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00%EV -6.69%E -4.95%K -19.10%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%EV -2.73%E -0.867%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-25 17:00 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00%EV -6.69%E -4.95%K -19.10%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%EV -2.73%E -0.867%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-25 16:58 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00%EV -6.69%E -4.95%K -19.10%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%EV -2.73%E -0.867%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-25 17:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00%EV -6.69%E -4.95%K -19.10%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%EV -2.73%E -0.867%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-25 17:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00%EV -6.69%E -4.95%K -19.10%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%EV -2.73%E -0.867%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-25 17:00 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 69.04%EV -3.92%E -2.82%K -10.06%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.96%EV -4.28%E -1.38%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-07-25 17:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 69.04%EV -3.92%E -2.82%K -10.06%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.96%EV -4.28%E -1.38%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-07-25 17:05 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 69.04%EV -3.92%E -2.82%K -10.06%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.96%EV -4.28%E -1.38%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-07-25 17:05 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -4.61%E -3.34%K -12.14%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -4.28%E -1.38%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-07-25 16:46 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.00%E -4.41%K -16.65%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -4.28%E -1.38%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-21 13:50 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.06%EV -4.61%E -3.34%K -12.14%G +0.000% | 3.08I 32.47%NM 30.94%EV -4.89%E -1.59%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-07-25 17:05 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.53%EV -2.54%E -1.80%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 3.07I 32.57%NM 31.47%EV -5.20%E -1.69%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-07-25 17:10 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.16%EV -6.00%E -4.41%K -16.65%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.84%EV -5.82%E -1.91%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-25 16:35 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.16%EV -6.00%E -4.41%K -16.65%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.84%EV -5.82%E -1.91%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-25 11:54 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.11%EV -10.14%E -7.80%K -33.81%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.89%EV -5.82%E -1.91%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-07-25 17:00 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.23%E -2.31%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -7.36%E -2.45%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-07-25 17:10 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.66%EV -2.54%E -1.80%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -8.91%E -3.02%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-07-25 17:10 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -3.23%E -2.31%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -8.91%E -3.02%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-25 17:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -3.23%E -2.31%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -11.07%E -3.84%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-25 17:05 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -3.23%E -2.31%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -11.07%E -3.84%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-25 17:00 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.85%EV -6.00%E -4.41%K -16.65%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 32.15%EV -11.38%E -3.96%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-07-25 13:30 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 67.15%EV -5.30%E -3.87%K -14.34%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.85%EV -13.54%E -4.84%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-07-25 17:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.31% | 3.23I 30.96%NM 30.69% | 0.9% | 2026-07-25 17:10 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.31% | 3.23I 30.96%NM 30.69% | 0.9% | 2026-07-25 17:10 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.11% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.89% | 1.2% | 2026-07-25 17:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.11% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.89% | 1.2% | 2026-07-25 17:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.42I 70.42%NM 69.26% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.74% | 1.7% | 2026-07-25 17:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.42I 70.42%NM 69.26% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.74% | 1.7% | 2026-07-25 17:10 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.42I 70.42%NM 69.26% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.74% | 1.7% | 2026-07-25 17:09 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.24% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.89% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.87% | 7.0% | 2026-07-25 15:59 |