Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Magomed Magomedov v Daniel Marcos

2026-08-23 00:00 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

2 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

47%

53%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Magomed Magomedov (Local)

Prediction 47.15%2.12fair odd

EV -5.69%

Edge -2.85%

Kelly -5.69%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

47.09%47.15%47.15%47.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.951.981.982.0051.28%50.63%50.63%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Daniel Marcos (Visit)

Prediction 52.85%1.89fair odd

EV -5.93%

Edge -3.33%

Kelly -7.61%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.78

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

52.85%52.85%52.85%52.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.741.761.761.7857.47%56.82%56.82%56.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Magomed Magomedov (Local): 47.15%; Daniel Marcos (Visit): 52.85%. For Magomed Magomedov (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.12. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.00, with an expected value of -5.69%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (2 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
ReBet🎯	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.09%EV -5.69%E -2.85%K -5.69%G +0.000%	1.78I 56.18%NM 52.91%EV -5.93%E -3.33%K -7.61%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-08-20 01:05
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.95I 51.28%NM 47.15%EV -8.05%E -4.13%K -8.47%G +0.000%	1.74I 57.47%NM 52.85%EV -8.05%E -4.63%K -10.88%G +0.000%	8.8%	2026-08-20 01:04

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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