The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Magomed Ankalaev v Khalil Rountree

Kickoff: 2026-07-25 18:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

33 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Magomed Ankalaev (Local)

Prediction 72.67%1.38fair odd
EV -1.89%
Edge -1.40%
Kelly -5.41%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
70.00%72.58%72.63%73.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.251.301.301.3580.00%76.80%76.92%74.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Khalil Rountree (Visit)

Prediction 27.33%3.66fair odd
EV -1.62%
Edge -0.449%
Kelly -0.622%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.08%27.42%27.37%30.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.423.453.6032.79%29.24%28.99%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Magomed Ankalaev (Local): 72.67%; Khalil Rountree (Visit): 27.33%. For Khalil Rountree (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.66. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.60, with an expected value of -1.62%; they did not produce positive expected value.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (33 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
PlayUp🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00%EV -1.89%E -1.40%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%EV -13.92%E -4.42%K -6.47%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-14 01:39
Paddy Power🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -3.35%E -2.52%K -10.14%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -11.18%E -3.44%K -4.97%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-28 13:59
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -3.35%E -2.52%K -10.14%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -11.18%E -3.44%K -4.97%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-28 14:19
BetOnline.ag🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 73.17%EV -4.07%E -3.09%K -12.73%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.83%EV -1.62%E -0.449%K -0.622%G +0.000%3.5%2026-06-03 02:49
Coolbet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 73.17%EV -4.07%E -3.09%K -12.73%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.83%EV -1.62%E -0.449%K -0.622%G +0.000%3.5%2026-06-29 15:10
BetUS🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.84%EV -4.07%E -3.09%K -12.73%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 27.16%EV -3.26%E -0.920%K -1.28%G +0.000%4.0%2026-06-30 19:39
DraftKings🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%EV -4.07%E -3.09%K -12.73%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%EV -4.35%E -1.24%K -1.74%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-06 11:15
TAB🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -4.07%E -3.09%K -12.73%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -7.08%E -2.08%K -2.95%G +0.000%5.2%2026-06-28 23:19
LeoVegas🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -4.07%E -3.09%K -12.73%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -8.45%E -2.52%K -3.60%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-18 15:40
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -4.80%E -3.66%K -15.48%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -4.35%E -1.24%K -1.74%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-08 20:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -4.80%E -3.66%K -15.48%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -4.35%E -1.24%K -1.74%G +0.000%4.9%2026-06-29 23:29
Caesars🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 71.58%EV -4.80%E -3.66%K -15.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -9.82%E -2.97%K -4.27%G +0.000%6.6%2026-06-20 01:09
Betway🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.53%E -4.25%K -18.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.35%E -1.24%K -1.74%G +0.000%5.5%2026-06-13 11:00
Virgin Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.53%E -4.25%K -18.42%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -5.72%E -1.66%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-08 20:00
Unibet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.53%E -4.25%K -18.42%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -5.72%E -1.66%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-08 19:59
LiveScore Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.53%E -4.25%K -18.42%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -5.72%E -1.66%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-08 20:00
TABtouch🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.53%E -4.25%K -18.42%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -5.72%E -1.66%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-08 20:00
Grosvenor🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.53%E -4.25%K -18.42%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -5.72%E -1.66%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-08 19:59
betPARX🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.53%E -4.25%K -18.42%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -5.72%E -1.66%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-08 20:00
Bally Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.53%E -4.25%K -18.42%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -5.72%E -1.66%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-08 19:59
ATG (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.53%E -4.25%K -18.42%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -5.72%E -1.66%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-08 20:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.53%E -4.25%K -18.42%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -5.72%E -1.66%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.9%2026-06-29 23:29
BetRivers🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.53%E -4.25%K -18.42%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -5.72%E -1.66%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-10 14:15
SportsBet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.53%E -4.25%K -18.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -7.08%E -2.08%K -2.95%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-28 13:59
FanDuel🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.53%E -4.25%K -18.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -7.08%E -2.08%K -2.95%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-28 13:59
888sport🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.53%E -4.25%K -18.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -7.08%E -2.08%K -2.95%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-29 23:29
Unibet (UK)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.04%EV -5.53%E -4.25%K -18.42%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.96%EV -8.45%E -2.52%K -3.60%G +0.000%6.8%2026-06-29 23:20
Fliff🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.35%EV -6.25%E -4.85%K -21.56%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.65%EV -2.98%E -0.841%K -1.17%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-12 02:02
NordicBet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%EV -7.71%E -6.07%K -28.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -1.62%E -0.449%K -0.622%G +0.000%6.5%2026-06-15 03:30
Betsson🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%EV -7.71%E -6.07%K -28.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -1.62%E -0.449%K -0.622%G +0.000%6.5%2026-06-15 10:00
Betclic (FR)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.09%EV -7.71%E -6.07%K -28.54%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.91%EV -5.72%E -1.66%K -2.33%G +0.000%7.7%2026-06-07 12:59
Unibet (FR)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 71.10%EV -8.43%E -6.69%K -32.44%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.90%EV -15.28%E -4.93%K -7.28%G +0.000%11.6%2026-06-19 04:20
Winamax (FR)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 70.93%EV -9.16%E -7.33%K -36.64%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.07%EV -16.65%E -5.46%K -8.12%G +0.000%12.8%2026-06-16 13:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Polymarket◎1.96I 51.02%NM 50.00%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.00%2.0%2026-07-14 10:26
Novig◎1.29I 77.52%NM 72.78%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.22%6.5%2026-07-13 21:50
Matchbook◎1.24I 80.65%NM 69.90%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.10%15.4%2026-07-13 20:15

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.15%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.01%33.00I 3.03%NM 2.84%6.6%2026-07-11 12:24

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