The School of Odds

Magomed Ankalaev v Khalil Rountree

2026-07-25 18:45 UTC — MMA

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Head to Head

33 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Magomed Ankalaev (Local)

Prediction 72.67%1.38fair odd
EV -1.89%
Edge -1.40%
Kelly -5.41%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
70.00%72.58%72.63%73.92%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.251.301.301.3580%77%77%74%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Khalil Rountree (Visit)

Prediction 27.33%3.66fair odd
EV -1.62%
Edge -0.449%
Kelly -0.622%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.08%27.42%27.37%30.00%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.053.423.453.6033%29%29%28%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

1 bookmaker(s) offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (33 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
PlayUp1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00%EV -1.89%E -1.40%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%EV -13.92%E -4.42%K -6.47%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-14 01:39
Paddy Power1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -3.35%E -2.52%K -10.14%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -11.18%E -3.44%K -4.97%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-28 13:59
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -3.35%E -2.52%K -10.14%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -11.18%E -3.44%K -4.97%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-28 14:19
BetOnline.ag1.32I 75.76%NM 73.17%EV -4.07%E -3.09%K -12.73%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.83%EV -1.62%E -0.449%K -0.622%G +0.000%3.5%2026-06-03 02:49
Coolbet1.32I 75.76%NM 73.17%EV -4.07%E -3.09%K -12.73%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.83%EV -1.62%E -0.449%K -0.622%G +0.000%3.5%2026-06-29 15:10
BetUS1.32I 75.76%NM 72.84%EV -4.07%E -3.09%K -12.73%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 27.16%EV -3.26%E -0.920%K -1.28%G +0.000%4.0%2026-06-30 19:39
DraftKings1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%EV -4.07%E -3.09%K -12.73%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%EV -4.35%E -1.24%K -1.74%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-06 11:15
TAB1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -4.07%E -3.09%K -12.73%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -7.08%E -2.08%K -2.95%G +0.000%5.2%2026-06-28 23:19
LeoVegas1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -4.07%E -3.09%K -12.73%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -8.45%E -2.52%K -3.60%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-18 15:40
Hard Rock Bet1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -4.80%E -3.66%K -15.48%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -4.35%E -1.24%K -1.74%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-08 20:00
PointsBet (AU)1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -4.80%E -3.66%K -15.48%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -4.35%E -1.24%K -1.74%G +0.000%4.9%2026-06-29 23:29
Caesars1.31I 76.34%NM 71.58%EV -4.80%E -3.66%K -15.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -9.82%E -2.97%K -4.27%G +0.000%6.6%2026-06-20 01:09
Betway1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.53%E -4.25%K -18.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.35%E -1.24%K -1.74%G +0.000%5.5%2026-06-13 11:00
Virgin Bet1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.53%E -4.25%K -18.42%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -5.72%E -1.66%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-08 20:00
Unibet1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.53%E -4.25%K -18.42%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -5.72%E -1.66%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-08 19:59
LiveScore Bet1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.53%E -4.25%K -18.42%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -5.72%E -1.66%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-08 20:00
TABtouch1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.53%E -4.25%K -18.42%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -5.72%E -1.66%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-08 20:00
Grosvenor1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.53%E -4.25%K -18.42%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -5.72%E -1.66%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-08 19:59
betPARX1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.53%E -4.25%K -18.42%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -5.72%E -1.66%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-08 20:00
Bally Bet1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.53%E -4.25%K -18.42%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -5.72%E -1.66%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-08 19:59
ATG (SE)1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.53%E -4.25%K -18.42%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -5.72%E -1.66%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-08 20:00
Betr (AU)1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.53%E -4.25%K -18.42%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -5.72%E -1.66%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.9%2026-06-29 23:29
BetRivers1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.53%E -4.25%K -18.42%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -5.72%E -1.66%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-10 14:15
SportsBet1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.53%E -4.25%K -18.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -7.08%E -2.08%K -2.95%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-28 13:59
FanDuel1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.53%E -4.25%K -18.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -7.08%E -2.08%K -2.95%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-28 13:59
888sport1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.53%E -4.25%K -18.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -7.08%E -2.08%K -2.95%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-29 23:29
Unibet (UK)1.30I 76.92%NM 72.04%EV -5.53%E -4.25%K -18.42%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.96%EV -8.45%E -2.52%K -3.60%G +0.000%6.8%2026-06-29 23:20
Fliff1.29I 77.52%NM 73.35%EV -6.25%E -4.85%K -21.56%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.65%EV -2.98%E -0.841%K -1.17%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-12 02:02
NordicBet1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%EV -7.71%E -6.07%K -28.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -1.62%E -0.449%K -0.622%G +0.000%6.5%2026-06-15 03:30
Betsson1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%EV -7.71%E -6.07%K -28.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -1.62%E -0.449%K -0.622%G +0.000%6.5%2026-06-15 10:00
Betclic (FR)1.27I 78.74%NM 73.09%EV -7.71%E -6.07%K -28.54%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.91%EV -5.72%E -1.66%K -2.33%G +0.000%7.7%2026-06-07 12:59
Unibet (FR)1.26I 79.37%NM 71.10%EV -8.43%E -6.69%K -32.44%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.90%EV -15.28%E -4.93%K -7.28%G +0.000%11.6%2026-06-19 04:20
Winamax (FR)1.25I 80.00%NM 70.93%EV -9.16%E -7.33%K -36.64%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.07%EV -16.65%E -5.46%K -8.12%G +0.000%12.8%2026-06-16 13:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Polymarket1.96I 51.02%NM 50.00%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.00%2.0%2026-07-14 10:26
Novig1.29I 77.52%NM 72.78%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.22%6.5%2026-07-13 21:50
Matchbook1.24I 80.65%NM 69.90%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.10%15.4%2026-07-13 20:15

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet1.30I 76.92%NM 72.15%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.01%33.00I 3.03%NM 2.84%6.6%2026-07-11 12:24