Language:English
Magomed Ankalaev v Bogdan Guskov
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Magomed Ankalaev (Local)
Prediction 80.66%1.24fair odd
EV -1.59%
Edge -1.30%
Kelly -7.24%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.22
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
78.95%80.67%80.79%82.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.131.181.181.2288.50%84.92%84.75%81.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Bogdan Guskov (Visit)
Prediction 19.34%5.17fair odd
EV +7.32%
Edge +1.32%
Kelly +1.61%
Growth +0.118%
assuming max odds 5.55
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.16%19.33%19.21%21.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.504.914.905.5522.22%20.36%20.41%18.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Magomed Ankalaev (Local): 80.66%; Bogdan Guskov (Visit): 19.34%. For Bogdan Guskov (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.17. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.55, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.32%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betsson | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.84%EV -7.24%E -6.29%K -48.26%G +0.000% | 5.55I 18.02%NM 17.16%EV +7.32%E +1.32%K +1.61%G +0.118% | 5.0% | 2026-07-25 11:25 |
| NordicBet | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.84%EV -7.24%E -6.29%K -48.26%G +0.000% | 5.55I 18.02%NM 17.16%EV +7.32%E +1.32%K +1.61%G +0.118% | 5.0% | 2026-07-25 11:25 |
| Coolbet | 1.18I 84.75%NM 81.65%EV -4.82%E -4.08%K -26.77%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.35%EV +1.52%E +0.290%K +0.358%G +0.005% | 3.8% | 2026-07-23 18:15 |
| FanDuel | 1.18I 84.75%NM 81.21%EV -4.82%E -4.08%K -26.77%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.79%EV -1.38%E -0.270%K -0.336%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-07-25 17:25 |
| SportsBet | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -5.63%E -4.81%K -33.09%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -1.38%E -0.270%K -0.336%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-25 17:25 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.82%E -4.08%K -26.77%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -3.31%E -0.662%K -0.828%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-07-25 18:10 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.82%E -4.08%K -26.77%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -3.31%E -0.662%K -0.828%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-07-25 18:10 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.82%E -4.08%K -26.77%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -3.31%E -0.662%K -0.828%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-07-21 13:50 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.82%E -4.08%K -26.77%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -3.31%E -0.662%K -0.828%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-07-25 18:05 |
| BetMGM | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.82%E -4.08%K -26.77%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -3.31%E -0.662%K -0.828%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-07-25 18:05 |
| Caesars | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.82%E -4.08%K -26.77%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -3.31%E -0.662%K -0.828%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-07-19 00:27 |
| TAB | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.63%E -4.81%K -33.09%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -3.31%E -0.662%K -0.828%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-22 01:45 |
| BetUS | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.88%EV -4.82%E -4.08%K -26.77%G +0.000% | 4.99I 20.04%NM 19.12%EV -3.51%E -0.702%K -0.878%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-07-25 18:10 |
| Fliff | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.88%EV -5.63%E -4.81%K -33.09%G +0.000% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 19.12%EV -4.28%E -0.864%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-25 18:05 |
| Bovada | 1.20I 83.33%NM 80.33%EV -3.21%E -2.67%K -16.03%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.67%EV -5.25%E -1.07%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-07-25 17:29 |
| TABtouch | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -4.82%E -4.08%K -26.77%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -5.25%E -1.07%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-21 13:50 |
| BetRivers | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -4.82%E -4.08%K -26.77%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -5.25%E -1.07%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-21 13:50 |
| betPARX | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -4.82%E -4.08%K -26.77%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -5.25%E -1.07%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-21 13:50 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -4.82%E -4.08%K -26.77%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -5.25%E -1.07%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-21 13:50 |
| Unibet | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -4.82%E -4.08%K -26.77%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -5.25%E -1.07%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-21 13:50 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -4.82%E -4.08%K -26.77%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -5.25%E -1.07%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-21 13:50 |
| Bally Bet | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -4.82%E -4.08%K -26.77%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -5.25%E -1.07%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-21 13:49 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -4.82%E -4.08%K -26.77%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -5.25%E -1.07%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-21 13:50 |
| Bet Right | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -4.82%E -4.08%K -26.77%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -5.25%E -1.07%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-25 18:10 |
| PMU (FR) | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -4.82%E -4.08%K -26.77%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -5.25%E -1.07%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-22 15:45 |
| Pinnacle | 1.22I 81.97%NM 79.90%EV -1.59%E -1.30%K -7.24%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 20.10%EV -6.21%E -1.28%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-07-25 18:05 |
| Betr (AU) | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.56%EV -5.63%E -4.81%K -33.09%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.44%EV -6.21%E -1.28%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-23 15:35 |
| PlayUp | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.56%EV -5.63%E -4.81%K -33.09%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.44%EV -6.21%E -1.28%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-24 04:40 |
| BetAnything | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%EV -4.82%E -4.08%K -26.77%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -7.18%E -1.50%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-25 18:10 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.67%EV -7.24%E -6.29%K -48.26%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.33%EV -7.18%E -1.50%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-07-25 18:10 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.51%EV -7.24%E -6.29%K -48.26%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.49%EV -8.15%E -1.71%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-07-25 13:23 |
| DraftKings | 1.21I 82.64%NM 79.53%EV -2.40%E -1.98%K -11.42%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.47%EV -9.11%E -1.94%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-07-25 18:05 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.16I 86.21%NM 79.86%EV -6.43%E -5.54%K -40.20%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.14%EV -11.05%E -2.40%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-07-25 18:10 |
| Grosvenor | 1.13I 88.50%NM 80.28%EV -8.85%E -7.83%K -68.09%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.72%EV -11.05%E -2.40%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-07-21 13:50 |
| Paddy Power | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -3.21%E -2.67%K -16.03%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -12.98%E -2.88%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-25 17:25 |
| Betway | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -3.21%E -2.67%K -16.03%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -12.98%E -2.88%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-25 18:10 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -3.21%E -2.67%K -16.03%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -12.98%E -2.88%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-25 17:25 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (9)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly | 1.21I 82.64%NM 82.54% | 5.72I 17.48%NM 17.46% | 0.1% | 2026-07-25 18:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.22I 81.97%NM 81.57% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.43% | 0.5% | 2026-07-25 18:10 |
| Novig | 1.21I 82.64%NM 82.13% | 5.56I 17.99%NM 17.87% | 0.6% | 2026-07-25 18:05 |
| Polymarket | 1.22I 81.97%NM 81.17% | 5.26I 19.01%NM 18.83% | 1.0% | 2026-07-25 17:40 |
| Kalshi | 1.22I 81.97%NM 81.17% | 5.26I 19.01%NM 18.83% | 1.0% | 2026-07-22 23:25 |
| ProphetX | 1.21I 82.64%NM 81.83% | 5.45I 18.35%NM 18.17% | 1.0% | 2026-07-25 18:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.21I 82.64%NM 81.69% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.31% | 1.2% | 2026-07-25 18:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.21I 82.64%NM 81.41% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.59% | 1.5% | 2026-07-25 18:10 |
| Matchbook | 1.19I 84.03%NM 81.38% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.62% | 3.3% | 2026-07-25 18:10 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.03% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.52% | 65.00I 1.54%NM 1.45% | 5.9% | 2026-07-25 13:35 |