Language:English
Lupita Godinez v Ketlen Souza
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Lupita Godinez (Local)
Prediction 67.13%1.49fair odd
EV -2.00%
Edge -1.37%
Kelly -4.34%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.46
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.27%67.23%67.30%70.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.281.401.401.4678.13%71.64%71.43%68.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Ketlen Souza (Visit)
Prediction 32.87%3.04fair odd
EV +8.48%
Edge +2.57%
Kelly +3.69%
Growth +0.313%
assuming max odds 3.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.03%32.77%32.70%34.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.652.942.933.3037.74%34.03%34.13%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lupita Godinez (Local): 67.13%; Ketlen Souza (Visit): 32.87%. For Ketlen Souza (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.04. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.48%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (34 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.97%EV -9.38%E -6.95%K -26.80%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.03%EV +8.48%E +2.57%K +3.69%G +0.313% | 4.4% | 2026-10-11 01:05 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -10.72%E -8.06%K -32.49%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV +6.84%E +2.10%K +3.04%G +0.208% | 6.0% | 2026-10-11 01:05 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -7.37%E -5.34%K -19.38%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV +1.91%E +0.616%K +0.909%G +0.017% | 4.7% | 2026-10-11 01:05 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -7.37%E -5.34%K -19.38%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV +0.266%E +0.087%K +0.130%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-11 01:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -7.37%E -5.34%K -19.38%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV +0.266%E +0.087%K +0.130%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-11 01:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -7.37%E -5.34%K -19.38%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV +0.266%E +0.087%K +0.130%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-11 01:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -7.37%E -5.34%K -19.38%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV +0.266%E +0.087%K +0.130%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-11 01:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -7.37%E -5.34%K -19.38%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV +0.266%E +0.087%K +0.130%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-11 01:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -7.37%E -5.34%K -19.38%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV +0.266%E +0.087%K +0.130%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-11 01:00 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -4.68%E -3.30%K -11.15%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -1.38%E -0.459%K -0.689%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-10-10 18:29 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -6.02%E -4.30%K -15.06%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -1.38%E -0.459%K -0.689%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-11 01:05 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.11%EV -6.02%E -4.30%K -15.06%G +0.000% | 2.99I 33.44%NM 31.89%EV -1.71%E -0.571%K -0.858%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.73%EV -4.68%E -3.30%K -11.15%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 32.27%EV -2.04%E -0.683%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-10-10 14:01 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.65%EV -4.68%E -3.30%K -11.15%G +0.000% | 2.97I 33.67%NM 32.35%EV -2.36%E -0.796%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-10-11 00:58 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -6.02%E -4.30%K -15.06%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -3.02%E -1.02%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -6.02%E -4.30%K -15.06%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -3.02%E -1.02%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-11 00:00 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%EV -7.37%E -5.34%K -19.38%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -3.02%E -1.02%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-11 01:05 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 66.59%EV -2.00%E -1.37%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 2.91I 34.36%NM 33.41%EV -4.34%E -1.49%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-10-11 01:00 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.82%EV -3.34%E -2.32%K -7.59%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.18%EV -4.67%E -1.61%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-10-11 01:04 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -4.01%E -2.80%K -9.33%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -4.67%E -1.61%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-10-11 01:04 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -5.35%E -3.80%K -13.05%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -4.67%E -1.61%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-11 01:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -6.02%E -4.30%K -15.06%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -4.67%E -1.61%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -8.71%E -6.40%K -24.19%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -5.32%E -1.85%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-10-10 13:59 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -8.71%E -6.40%K -24.19%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -5.32%E -1.85%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -8.71%E -6.40%K -24.19%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -5.32%E -1.85%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-10-10 22:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.36%EV -2.67%E -1.84%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 33.64%EV -5.98%E -2.09%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-10-11 01:05 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -3.34%E -2.32%K -7.59%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -6.31%E -2.21%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-10-11 01:00 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 66.05%EV -2.00%E -1.37%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 2.84I 35.21%NM 33.95%EV -6.64%E -2.34%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-10-11 01:05 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 67.30%EV -8.04%E -5.87%K -21.72%G +0.000% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 32.70%EV -7.30%E -2.59%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-11 00:55 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -4.01%E -2.80%K -9.33%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -7.95%E -2.84%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-11 01:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -6.02%E -4.30%K -15.06%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -9.60%E -3.49%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-11 01:05 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 68.24%EV -14.08%E -11.00%K -50.28%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 31.76%EV -9.60%E -3.49%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 14.5% | 2026-10-11 01:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -4.68%E -3.30%K -11.15%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -11.24%E -4.16%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-11 01:05 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 65.27%EV -5.35%E -3.80%K -13.05%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.73%EV -12.88%E -4.86%K -7.81%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-10-11 01:05 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (9)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.47I 68.03%NM 67.97% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 32.03% | 0.1% | 2026-10-11 00:44 |
| Novig◎ | 1.46I 68.49%NM 68.19% | 3.13I 31.95%NM 31.81% | 0.4% | 2026-10-11 01:05 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.45I 68.97%NM 68.27% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 31.73% | 1.0% | 2026-10-11 00:45 |
| Polymarket◎ | 1.45I 68.97%NM 68.27% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 31.73% | 1.0% | 2026-10-11 01:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.44I 69.44%NM 68.63% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.37% | 1.2% | 2026-10-11 01:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.45I 68.97%NM 68.13% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.87% | 1.2% | 2026-10-11 01:05 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.45I 68.97%NM 68.13% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.87% | 1.2% | 2026-10-11 00:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.44I 69.44%NM 68.28% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.72% | 1.7% | 2026-10-11 01:05 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.45I 68.97%NM 67.27% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 32.73% | 2.5% | 2026-10-11 01:00 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.84% | 2.91I 34.36%NM 32.13% | 46.00I 2.17%NM 2.03% | 7.0% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |