The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Luke Trainer v Roland Dunlap

Kickoff: 2026-08-23 01:00 UTC

Final: Luke Trainer 1–0 Roland Dunlap

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Luke Trainer (Local)

Prediction 79.18%1.26fair odd
EV -3.40%
Edge -2.78%
Kelly -15.44%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.22

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
77.45%79.18%80.00%81.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.151.201.201.2286.96%83.51%83.33%81.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Roland Dunlap (Visit)

Prediction 20.82%4.80fair odd
EV +4.08%
Edge +0.817%
Kelly +1.02%
Growth +0.042%

assuming max odds 5.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.96%20.82%20.00%22.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.954.524.535.0025.32%22.14%22.10%20.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Luke Trainer (Local): 79.18%; Roland Dunlap (Visit): 20.82%. For Roland Dunlap (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.80. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.08%.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -7.36%E -6.29%K -43.27%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV +4.08%E +0.817%K +1.02%G +0.042%5.5%2026-08-22 12:24
BetOnline.ag🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 80.10%EV -4.98%E -4.15%K -24.90%G +0.000%4.83I 20.70%NM 19.90%EV +0.544%E +0.113%K +0.142%G +0.001%4.0%2026-08-23 00:34
FanDuel🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 80.00%EV -4.98%E -4.15%K -24.90%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.00%EV -0.081%E -0.017%K -0.021%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-22 13:44
ReBet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 80.00%EV -4.98%E -4.15%K -24.90%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.00%EV -0.081%E -0.017%K -0.021%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-23 00:40
Unibet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -3.40%E -2.78%K -15.44%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -11.53%E -2.71%K -3.55%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-22 19:00
Grosvenor🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -3.40%E -2.78%K -15.44%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -11.53%E -2.71%K -3.55%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-22 19:00
Bally Bet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -3.40%E -2.78%K -15.44%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -11.53%E -2.71%K -3.55%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-22 19:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 77.45%EV -8.94%E -7.77%K -59.59%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.55%EV -17.77%E -4.50%K -6.03%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-23 00:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.