Language:English
Luke Riley v Michael Aswell
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Luke Riley (Local)
Prediction 66.03%1.51fair odd
EV -0.958%
Edge -0.639%
Kelly -1.92%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.29%66.44%65.88%69.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.381.441.441.5072.46%69.61%69.44%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Michael Aswell (Visit)
Prediction 33.97%2.94fair odd
EV +7.01%
Edge +2.23%
Kelly +3.26%
Growth +0.229%
assuming max odds 3.15
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.46%33.56%34.12%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.682.812.753.1537.31%35.63%36.36%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Luke Riley (Local): 66.03%; Michael Aswell (Visit): 33.97%. For Michael Aswell (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.94. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.15, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.01%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (41 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betsson🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -8.88%E -6.44%K -23.37%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV +7.01%E +2.23%K +3.26%G +0.229% | 4.2% | 2026-03-21 21:59 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -8.88%E -6.44%K -23.37%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV +7.01%E +2.23%K +3.26%G +0.229% | 4.2% | 2026-03-21 22:00 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.54%EV -7.56%E -5.40%K -18.90%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.46%EV +3.62%E +1.19%K +1.76%G +0.064% | 4.2% | 2026-03-21 22:10 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.17%EV -6.90%E -4.89%K -16.83%G +0.000% | 3.02I 33.11%NM 31.83%EV +2.60%E +0.860%K +1.29%G +0.033% | 4.0% | 2026-03-21 22:09 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.97%EV -4.26%E -2.94%K -9.47%G +0.000% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.03%EV -0.122%E -0.041%K -0.063%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-03-21 22:04 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -5.58%E -3.90%K -12.98%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -1.48%E -0.510%K -0.779%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-21 22:08 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.67%EV -4.92%E -3.42%K -11.18%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.33%EV -2.16%E -0.750%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-21 22:04 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.67%EV -5.58%E -3.90%K -12.98%G +0.000% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 33.33%EV -2.84%E -0.993%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-21 22:04 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.28%EV -4.26%E -2.94%K -9.47%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.72%EV -3.18%E -1.12%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-21 22:10 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -5.58%E -3.90%K -12.98%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -3.18%E -1.12%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-21 22:10 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.74%EV -2.28%E -1.54%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 2.84I 35.21%NM 34.26%EV -3.52%E -1.24%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-03-21 18:09 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.73%EV -3.60%E -2.47%K -7.83%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.27%EV -4.88%E -1.74%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-21 20:50 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.26%E -2.94%K -9.47%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -4.88%E -1.74%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-21 22:04 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.26%E -2.94%K -9.47%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -4.88%E -1.74%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-21 22:04 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.26%E -2.94%K -9.47%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -4.88%E -1.74%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-21 22:03 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -6.24%E -4.39%K -14.86%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -4.88%E -1.74%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-21 22:09 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.26%E -2.94%K -9.47%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -6.58%E -2.39%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-21 19:20 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.26%E -2.94%K -9.47%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -6.58%E -2.39%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-21 22:09 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.26%E -2.94%K -9.47%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -6.58%E -2.39%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-21 21:10 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.26%E -2.94%K -9.47%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -6.58%E -2.39%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-21 20:40 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.26%E -2.94%K -9.47%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -6.58%E -2.39%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-21 22:04 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.26%E -2.94%K -9.47%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -6.58%E -2.39%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-21 22:04 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.26%E -2.94%K -9.47%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -6.58%E -2.39%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-21 22:05 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.26%E -2.94%K -9.47%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -6.58%E -2.39%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-21 22:04 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.92%E -3.42%K -11.18%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.58%E -2.39%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-21 22:04 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.92%E -3.42%K -11.18%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.58%E -2.39%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-21 22:04 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.92%E -3.42%K -11.18%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.58%E -2.39%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-21 22:04 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.92%E -3.42%K -11.18%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.58%E -2.39%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-21 22:04 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.92%E -3.42%K -11.18%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.58%E -2.39%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-21 22:04 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.92%E -3.42%K -11.18%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.58%E -2.39%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-21 22:04 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.92%E -3.42%K -11.18%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.58%E -2.39%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-21 22:04 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.92%E -3.42%K -11.18%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.58%E -2.39%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-21 22:04 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.92%E -3.42%K -11.18%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.58%E -2.39%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-21 22:04 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.92%E -3.42%K -11.18%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.58%E -2.39%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-21 22:04 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.92%E -3.42%K -11.18%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.58%E -2.39%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-20 12:35 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.92%E -3.42%K -11.18%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.58%E -2.39%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-21 22:04 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -7.56%E -5.40%K -18.90%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -6.58%E -2.39%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-21 22:09 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -7.56%E -5.40%K -18.90%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -6.58%E -2.39%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-21 21:49 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29%EV -0.958%E -0.639%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%EV -8.27%E -3.06%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-03-21 21:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -7.56%E -5.40%K -18.90%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -8.27%E -3.06%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-21 18:09 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 65.53%EV -6.90%E -4.89%K -16.83%G +0.000% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 34.47%EV -8.95%E -3.34%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-21 20:44 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.50I 66.67%NM 66.59% | 2.99I 33.44%NM 33.41% | 0.1% | 2026-03-21 20:49 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.44I 69.44%NM 68.97% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 31.03% | 0.7% | 2026-03-21 22:09 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.44% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.56% | 0.7% | 2026-03-21 22:10 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.47I 68.03%NM 67.33% | 3.03I 33.00%NM 32.67% | 1.0% | 2026-03-21 22:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.46I 68.49%NM 67.63% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.37% | 1.3% | 2026-03-21 22:10 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.44I 69.44%NM 67.57% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.43% | 2.8% | 2026-03-21 22:09 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.43% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 32.57% | 4.4% | 2026-03-21 22:08 |
| Novig◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.90% | 2.89I 34.60%NM 33.10% | 4.5% | 2026-03-21 22:09 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.41% | 2.77I 36.10%NM 33.72% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.87% | 7.1% | 2026-03-21 21:40 |