Language:English
Luke Riley v Kai Kamaka
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Luke Riley (Local)
Prediction 69.72%1.43fair odd
EV +0.399%
Edge +0.277%
Kelly +0.908%
Growth +0.004%
assuming max odds 1.44
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.63%69.60%69.67%72.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.301.381.381.4476.92%72.68%72.46%69.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Kai Kamaka (Visit)
Prediction 30.28%3.30fair odd
EV +5.97%
Edge +1.71%
Kelly +2.39%
Growth +0.143%
assuming max odds 3.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.08%30.40%30.33%34.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.753.103.053.5036.36%32.24%32.79%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Luke Riley (Local): 69.72%; Kai Kamaka (Visit): 30.28%. For Kai Kamaka (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.30. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.97%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (32 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -9.36%E -7.20%K -31.21%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV +5.97%E +1.71%K +2.39%G +0.143% | 5.5% | 2026-07-11 23:09 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -7.97%E -6.04%K -24.90%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV +2.95%E +0.866%K +1.23%G +0.036% | 5.2% | 2026-07-11 23:09 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.97%EV -5.88%E -4.35%K -16.79%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.03%EV -0.082%E -0.025%K -0.036%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-07-11 23:10 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 70.26%EV -3.78%E -2.74%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 3.26I 30.67%NM 29.74%EV -1.29%E -0.397%K -0.572%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-07-11 23:10 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 70.19%EV -3.78%E -2.74%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.81%EV -1.60%E -0.491%K -0.709%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-07-11 23:09 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -5.18%E -3.81%K -14.38%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -1.60%E -0.491%K -0.709%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-07-11 23:05 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -5.18%E -3.81%K -14.38%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -1.60%E -0.491%K -0.709%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-07-11 23:09 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 70.02%EV -4.48%E -3.27%K -12.11%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.98%EV -3.11%E -0.972%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-07-11 23:04 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.88%E -4.35%K -16.79%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -3.11%E -0.972%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-11 22:54 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.88%E -4.35%K -16.79%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -3.11%E -0.972%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-11 22:39 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.67%EV -3.78%E -2.74%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 3.17I 31.55%NM 30.33%EV -4.02%E -1.27%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-07-11 22:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -3.78%E -2.74%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -4.62%E -1.47%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-07-11 22:39 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -5.18%E -3.81%K -14.38%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -4.62%E -1.47%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-11 21:24 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -3.78%E -2.74%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -6.14%E -1.98%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-07-11 20:07 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -4.48%E -3.27%K -12.11%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -6.14%E -1.98%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-11 20:04 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -3.78%E -2.74%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -7.65%E -2.51%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-11 21:24 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -3.78%E -2.74%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -7.65%E -2.51%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-11 19:54 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -3.78%E -2.74%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -7.65%E -2.51%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-11 19:54 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -3.78%E -2.74%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -7.65%E -2.51%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-11 19:54 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -3.78%E -2.74%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -7.65%E -2.51%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-11 19:54 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -3.78%E -2.74%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -7.65%E -2.51%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-11 19:54 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -3.78%E -2.74%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -7.65%E -2.51%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-11 19:53 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -3.78%E -2.74%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -7.65%E -2.51%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-11 19:54 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -3.78%E -2.74%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -7.65%E -2.51%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-11 19:55 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -3.78%E -2.74%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -7.65%E -2.51%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-11 19:54 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -3.78%E -2.74%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -9.17%E -3.06%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-11 19:54 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.65%EV -4.48%E -3.27%K -12.11%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.35%EV -9.17%E -3.06%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-11 20:04 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.28%EV -0.298%E -0.208%K -0.693%G +0.000% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 32.72%EV -10.98%E -3.74%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-07-11 22:10 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.51%EV -1.69%E -1.20%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 2.93I 34.13%NM 32.49%EV -11.28%E -3.85%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-11 22:09 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 67.92%EV -4.48%E -3.27%K -12.11%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%EV -12.19%E -4.20%K -6.42%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-11 23:07 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV +0.399%E +0.277%K +0.908%G +0.004% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -16.73%E -6.09%K -9.56%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-10 18:09 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV +0.399%E +0.277%K +0.908%G +0.004% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -16.73%E -6.09%K -9.56%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-10 18:09 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.40I 71.43%NM 71.31% | 3.48I 28.74%NM 28.69% | 0.2% | 2026-07-11 22:39 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.38I 72.46%NM 72.01% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.99% | 0.6% | 2026-07-11 23:09 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.38I 72.46%NM 72.01% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.99% | 0.6% | 2026-07-11 23:10 |
| Polymarket◎ | 1.37I 72.99%NM 72.27% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 27.73% | 1.0% | 2026-07-11 23:10 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.38I 72.46%NM 71.43% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.57% | 1.4% | 2026-07-11 23:10 |
| Novig◎ | 1.40I 71.43%NM 70.09% | 3.28I 30.49%NM 29.91% | 1.9% | 2026-07-11 23:09 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.38I 72.46%NM 70.82% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.18% | 2.3% | 2026-07-11 23:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.38I 72.46%NM 70.82% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.18% | 2.3% | 2026-07-11 23:10 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 67.20% | 3.06I 32.68%NM 30.09% | 34.00I 2.94%NM 2.71% | 8.6% | 2026-07-11 21:49 |
Discuss this game on odds.forum
No published comments yet.