The School of OddsLuke Riley v Kai Kamaka
Head to Head
1 bookmaker(s) offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Option 1: Luke Riley (Local)
Odds
1.2977.52%Min
1.3176.12%Mean
1.3176.34%Median
1.3673.53%Max
Consensus probabilities
70.00%1.429Min
74.15%1.349Max
72.22%1.385Mean
72.18%1.385Median
72.16%1.386IQM
72.22%1.385Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 1.36 under the IQM model: 72.16%
EV -1.87%Edge -1.37%Kelly -5.19%Growth +0.000%
Option 2: Kai Kamaka (Visit)
Odds
3.1531.75%Min
3.4529.00%Mean
3.5028.57%Median
3.7027.03%Max
Consensus probabilities
25.85%3.868Min
30.00%3.333Max
27.78%3.600Mean
27.82%3.595Median
27.84%3.592IQM
27.78%3.600Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 3.70 under the IQM model: 27.84%
EV +3.02%Edge +0.816%Kelly +1.12%Growth +0.034%
Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)
| Bookmaker | Luke Riley (Local) | Kai Kamaka (Visit) ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NordicBet | 1.29I 77.52% NM 74.15%EV -6.92% E -5.36% K -23.85% G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03% NM 25.85%EV +3.02% E +0.816% K +1.12% G +0.034% | 4.5% | 2026-07-02 20:20 |
| Betsson | 1.29I 77.52% NM 74.15%EV -6.92% E -5.36% K -23.85% G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03% NM 25.85%EV +3.02% E +0.816% K +1.12% G +0.034% | 4.5% | 2026-07-02 20:25 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 1.30I 76.92% NM 73.47%EV -6.20% E -4.77% K -20.65% G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78% NM 26.53%EV +0.235% E +0.065% K +0.091% G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-06-30 19:19 |
| SportsBet | 1.30I 76.92% NM 73.03%EV -6.20% E -4.77% K -20.65% G +0.000% | 3.52I 28.41% NM 26.97%EV -1.99% E -0.566% K -0.791% G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-04 23:15 |
| Bovada | 1.33I 75.19% NM 72.46%EV -4.03% E -3.03% K -12.22% G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57% NM 27.54%EV -2.55% E -0.728% K -1.02% G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-07-05 11:27 |
| Coolbet | 1.32I 75.76% NM 72.61%EV -4.75% E -3.60% K -14.85% G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57% NM 27.39%EV -2.55% E -0.728% K -1.02% G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-07-03 13:49 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 1.31I 76.34% NM 72.77%EV -5.47% E -4.18% K -17.66% G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57% NM 27.23%EV -2.55% E -0.728% K -1.02% G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-29 19:30 |
| TAB | 1.30I 76.92% NM 72.92%EV -6.20% E -4.77% K -20.65% G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57% NM 27.08%EV -2.55% E -0.728% K -1.02% G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-28 23:19 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.30I 76.92% NM 72.92%EV -6.20% E -4.77% K -20.65% G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57% NM 27.08%EV -2.55% E -0.728% K -1.02% G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-29 17:50 |
| Unibet | 1.30I 76.92% NM 72.92%EV -6.20% E -4.77% K -20.65% G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57% NM 27.08%EV -2.55% E -0.728% K -1.02% G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-29 17:50 |
| TABtouch | 1.30I 76.92% NM 72.92%EV -6.20% E -4.77% K -20.65% G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57% NM 27.08%EV -2.55% E -0.728% K -1.02% G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-29 17:49 |
| Grosvenor | 1.30I 76.92% NM 72.92%EV -6.20% E -4.77% K -20.65% G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57% NM 27.08%EV -2.55% E -0.728% K -1.02% G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-29 17:50 |
| LeoVegas | 1.30I 76.92% NM 72.92%EV -6.20% E -4.77% K -20.65% G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57% NM 27.08%EV -2.55% E -0.728% K -1.02% G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-29 17:50 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.30I 76.92% NM 72.92%EV -6.20% E -4.77% K -20.65% G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57% NM 27.08%EV -2.55% E -0.728% K -1.02% G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-29 17:50 |
| betPARX | 1.30I 76.92% NM 72.92%EV -6.20% E -4.77% K -20.65% G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57% NM 27.08%EV -2.55% E -0.728% K -1.02% G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-29 17:48 |
| Bally Bet | 1.30I 76.92% NM 72.92%EV -6.20% E -4.77% K -20.65% G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57% NM 27.08%EV -2.55% E -0.728% K -1.02% G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-29 17:49 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.30I 76.92% NM 72.92%EV -6.20% E -4.77% K -20.65% G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57% NM 27.08%EV -2.55% E -0.728% K -1.02% G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-29 17:50 |
| FanDuel | 1.29I 77.52% NM 73.07%EV -6.92% E -5.36% K -23.85% G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57% NM 26.93%EV -2.55% E -0.728% K -1.02% G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-06-29 16:10 |
| Pinnacle | 1.33I 75.19% NM 72.35%EV -4.03% E -3.03% K -12.22% G +0.000% | 3.48I 28.74% NM 27.65%EV -3.11% E -0.892% K -1.25% G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-07-05 00:19 |
| DraftKings | 1.33I 75.19% NM 72.18%EV -4.03% E -3.03% K -12.22% G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99% NM 27.82%EV -3.94% E -1.14% K -1.61% G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-07-05 00:20 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.36I 73.53% NM 71.43%EV -1.87% E -1.37% K -5.19% G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41% NM 28.57%EV -5.33% E -1.57% K -2.22% G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-07-05 11:30 |
| BetAnything | 1.32I 75.76% NM 72.03%EV -4.75% E -3.60% K -14.85% G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41% NM 27.97%EV -5.33% E -1.57% K -2.22% G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-05 11:30 |
| Caesars | 1.32I 75.76% NM 72.03%EV -4.75% E -3.60% K -14.85% G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41% NM 27.97%EV -5.33% E -1.57% K -2.22% G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-03 12:22 |
| Bet Right | 1.32I 75.76% NM 72.03%EV -4.75% E -3.60% K -14.85% G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41% NM 27.97%EV -5.33% E -1.57% K -2.22% G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-03 13:30 |
| BetMGM | 1.31I 76.34% NM 72.19%EV -5.47% E -4.18% K -17.66% G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41% NM 27.81%EV -5.33% E -1.57% K -2.22% G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-06-30 19:18 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 1.33I 75.19% NM 71.58%EV -4.03% E -3.03% K -12.22% G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85% NM 28.42%EV -6.73% E -2.01% K -2.86% G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-05 11:34 |
| Betr (AU) | 1.32I 75.76% NM 71.43%EV -4.75% E -3.60% K -14.85% G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30% NM 28.57%EV -8.12% E -2.46% K -3.53% G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-05 11:40 |
| Paddy Power | 1.33I 75.19% NM 70.96%EV -4.03% E -3.03% K -12.22% G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77% NM 29.04%EV -9.51% E -2.93% K -4.23% G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-06-29 16:09 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 1.33I 75.19% NM 70.96%EV -4.03% E -3.03% K -12.22% G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77% NM 29.04%EV -9.51% E -2.93% K -4.23% G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-06-29 16:19 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.33I 75.19% NM 70.64%EV -4.03% E -3.03% K -12.22% G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25% NM 29.36%EV -10.90% E -3.41% K -4.96% G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-05 11:30 |
| PlayUp | 1.35I 74.07% NM 70.00%EV -2.59% E -1.92% K -7.40% G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75% NM 30.00%EV -12.29% E -3.90% K -5.72% G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-05 12:44 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Luke Riley (Local) | Kai Kamaka (Visit) | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 1.37I 72.99% | 3.57I 28.01% | 1.0% | 2026-07-04 10:45 |
| Kalshi | 1.35I 74.07% | 3.57I 28.01% | 2.1% | 2026-06-30 10:30 |
| ProphetX | 1.32I 75.76% | 3.30I 30.30% | 6.1% | 2026-07-05 02:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.22I 81.97% | 3.55I 28.17% | 10.1% | 2026-07-05 12:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.22I 81.97% | 3.55I 28.17% | 10.1% | 2026-07-05 12:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.22I 81.97% | 3.55I 28.17% | 10.1% | 2026-07-05 12:40 |
| Novig | 1.00I 100.00% | 3.39I 29.50% | 29.5% | 2026-07-05 11:30 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.28I 78.13% | 3.62I 27.62% | 38.00I 2.63% | 8.4% | 2026-07-04 12:09 |