Language:English
Luke Fernandez v Rodolfo Bellato
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Luke Fernandez (Local)
Prediction 66.51%1.50fair odd
EV -2.23%
Edge -1.52%
Kelly -4.74%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.47
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.75%66.48%66.43%67.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.431.431.4771.43%70.08%69.93%68.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Rodolfo Bellato (Visit)
Prediction 33.49%2.99fair odd
EV -2.88%
Edge -0.994%
Kelly -1.52%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.90
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.71%33.52%33.57%35.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.842.852.9037.04%35.19%35.09%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Luke Fernandez (Local): 66.51%; Rodolfo Bellato (Visit): 33.49%. For Luke Fernandez (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.50. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.47, with an expected value of -2.23%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -2.23%E -1.52%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -9.58%E -3.55%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-07 22:45 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.20%EV -3.56%E -2.45%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 2.84I 35.21%NM 33.80%EV -4.89%E -1.72%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-07 22:44 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -3.56%E -2.45%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -7.90%E -2.87%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-07 22:43 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.82%EV -4.22%E -2.93%K -9.60%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.18%EV -2.88%E -0.994%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-07 22:44 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -4.22%E -2.93%K -9.60%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -4.56%E -1.60%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-07 22:44 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -4.22%E -2.93%K -9.60%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -4.56%E -1.60%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-07 22:44 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -4.22%E -2.93%K -9.60%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -4.56%E -1.60%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-07 22:44 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -4.22%E -2.93%K -9.60%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -4.56%E -1.60%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-07 22:45 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -4.22%E -2.93%K -9.60%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -6.23%E -2.23%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-07 22:44 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.22%E -2.93%K -9.60%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.90%E -2.87%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-07 22:45 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.22%E -2.93%K -9.60%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.90%E -2.87%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-07 22:45 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.22%E -2.93%K -9.60%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.90%E -2.87%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-07 22:43 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -4.89%E -3.42%K -11.37%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -2.88%E -0.994%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-07 22:41 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -4.89%E -3.42%K -11.37%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -4.56%E -1.60%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-07 22:42 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.43%EV -4.89%E -3.42%K -11.37%G +0.000% | 2.83I 35.34%NM 33.57%EV -5.23%E -1.85%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-07 22:45 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -5.55%E -3.91%K -13.23%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -6.23%E -2.23%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-07 22:44 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -6.22%E -4.41%K -15.17%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -2.88%E -0.994%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-07 22:44 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -6.22%E -4.41%K -15.17%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -2.88%E -0.994%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-07 22:44 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -6.22%E -4.41%K -15.17%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -2.88%E -0.994%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-07 22:45 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -6.22%E -4.41%K -15.17%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -2.88%E -0.994%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-07 22:44 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -6.22%E -4.41%K -15.17%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -2.88%E -0.994%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-07 22:44 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -6.22%E -4.41%K -15.17%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -2.88%E -0.994%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-07 22:44 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -6.22%E -4.41%K -15.17%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -2.88%E -0.994%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-07 22:44 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -6.22%E -4.41%K -15.17%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -2.88%E -0.994%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-07 22:44 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -6.22%E -4.41%K -15.17%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -2.88%E -0.994%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-07 22:44 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -6.88%E -4.92%K -17.21%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -6.23%E -2.23%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-07 22:45 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -6.88%E -4.92%K -17.21%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -6.23%E -2.23%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-07 22:44 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.46I 68.49%NM 67.63% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.37% | 1.3% | 2026-03-07 22:43 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.45I 68.97%NM 67.78% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.22% | 1.8% | 2026-03-07 22:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.45I 68.97%NM 67.78% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.22% | 1.8% | 2026-03-07 22:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.54% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.46% | 4.2% | 2026-03-07 22:45 |