Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Luis Hernandez v Sedriques Dumas

Kickoff: 2026-09-27 01:05 UTC

Final: Luis Hernandez 1–0 Sedriques Dumas

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

32 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

68%

32%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Luis Hernandez (Local)

Prediction 67.96%1.47fair odd

EV -2.81%

Edge -1.97%

Kelly -6.55%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

66.90%68.06%68.17%70.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.301.401.411.4376.92%71.52%70.92%69.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sedriques Dumas (Visit)

Prediction 32.04%3.12fair odd

EV +4.12%

Edge +1.27%

Kelly +1.83%

Growth +0.076%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

29.19%31.94%31.83%33.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.652.952.903.2537.74%33.93%34.48%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Luis Hernandez (Local): 67.96%; Sedriques Dumas (Visit): 32.04%. For Sedriques Dumas (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.12. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.12%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (32 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Bet Right🎯	1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -8.93%E -6.67%K -26.27%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV +4.12%E +1.27%K +1.83%G +0.076%	5.4%	2026-09-27 00:50
Pinnacle🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 69.30%EV -4.85%E -3.47%K -12.13%G +0.000%	3.16I 31.65%NM 30.70%EV +1.24%E +0.393%K +0.575%G +0.007%	3.1%	2026-09-27 01:00
Caesars🎯	1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -6.21%E -4.50%K -16.35%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV +0.921%E +0.292%K +0.428%G +0.004%	4.2%	2026-09-26 21:12
NordicBet🎯	1.39I 71.94%NM 69.04%EV -5.53%E -3.98%K -14.19%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.96%EV -0.681%E -0.220%K -0.324%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-09-26 20:50
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.41I 70.92%NM 68.39%EV -4.17%E -2.96%K -10.18%G +0.000%	3.05I 32.79%NM 31.61%EV -2.28%E -0.749%K -1.11%G +0.000%	3.7%	2026-09-27 00:14
Betsson🎯	1.37I 72.99%NM 69.00%EV -6.89%E -5.03%K -18.63%G +0.000%	3.05I 32.79%NM 31.00%EV -2.28%E -0.749%K -1.11%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-09-26 20:50
ReBet🎯	1.41I 70.92%NM 68.17%EV -4.17%E -2.96%K -10.18%G +0.000%	3.02I 33.11%NM 31.83%EV -3.24%E -1.07%K -1.61%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-09-27 00:20
BetUS🎯	1.41I 70.92%NM 68.17%EV -4.17%E -2.96%K -10.18%G +0.000%	3.02I 33.11%NM 31.83%EV -3.24%E -1.07%K -1.61%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-09-26 18:40
Coolbet🎯	1.41I 70.92%NM 68.17%EV -4.17%E -2.96%K -10.18%G +0.000%	3.02I 33.11%NM 31.83%EV -3.24%E -1.07%K -1.61%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-09-26 22:04
Betway🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.85%E -3.47%K -12.13%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -3.89%E -1.30%K -1.94%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-09-25 08:55
BetMGM🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.85%E -3.47%K -12.13%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -3.89%E -1.30%K -1.94%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-09-26 19:05
BetAnything🎯	1.41I 70.92%NM 67.66%EV -4.17%E -2.96%K -10.18%G +0.000%	2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -5.49%E -1.86%K -2.81%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-09-27 00:15
Unibet (UK)🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.85%E -3.47%K -12.13%G +0.000%	2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -5.49%E -1.86%K -2.81%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-09-27 00:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.85%E -3.47%K -12.13%G +0.000%	2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -5.49%E -1.86%K -2.81%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-09-26 12:24
Fliff🎯	1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%EV -6.21%E -4.50%K -16.35%G +0.000%	2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -5.49%E -1.86%K -2.81%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-09-26 23:50
DraftKings🎯	1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -2.81%E -1.97%K -6.55%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -7.09%E -2.44%K -3.73%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-09-27 00:48
Bovada🎯	1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -2.81%E -1.97%K -6.55%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -7.09%E -2.44%K -3.73%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-09-26 23:44
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -3.49%E -2.46%K -8.32%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -7.09%E -2.44%K -3.73%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-09-26 18:44
Hard Rock Bet🎯	1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -3.49%E -2.46%K -8.32%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -7.09%E -2.44%K -3.73%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-09-25 18:25
TABtouch🎯	1.41I 70.92%NM 67.13%EV -4.17%E -2.96%K -10.18%G +0.000%	2.88I 34.72%NM 32.87%EV -7.73%E -2.68%K -4.11%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-09-25 20:35
Virgin Bet🎯	1.41I 70.92%NM 67.13%EV -4.17%E -2.96%K -10.18%G +0.000%	2.88I 34.72%NM 32.87%EV -7.73%E -2.68%K -4.11%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-09-25 20:30
Bally Bet🎯	1.41I 70.92%NM 67.13%EV -4.17%E -2.96%K -10.18%G +0.000%	2.88I 34.72%NM 32.87%EV -7.73%E -2.68%K -4.11%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-09-25 20:30
betPARX🎯	1.41I 70.92%NM 67.13%EV -4.17%E -2.96%K -10.18%G +0.000%	2.88I 34.72%NM 32.87%EV -7.73%E -2.68%K -4.11%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-09-25 20:35
ATG (SE)🎯	1.41I 70.92%NM 67.13%EV -4.17%E -2.96%K -10.18%G +0.000%	2.88I 34.72%NM 32.87%EV -7.73%E -2.68%K -4.11%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-09-25 20:35
LiveScore Bet🎯	1.41I 70.92%NM 67.13%EV -4.17%E -2.96%K -10.18%G +0.000%	2.88I 34.72%NM 32.87%EV -7.73%E -2.68%K -4.11%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-09-25 20:30
BetRivers🎯	1.41I 70.92%NM 67.13%EV -4.17%E -2.96%K -10.18%G +0.000%	2.88I 34.72%NM 32.87%EV -7.73%E -2.68%K -4.11%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-09-25 20:34
Unibet🎯	1.41I 70.92%NM 67.13%EV -4.17%E -2.96%K -10.18%G +0.000%	2.88I 34.72%NM 32.87%EV -7.73%E -2.68%K -4.11%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-09-25 20:35
PMU (FR)🎯	1.41I 70.92%NM 67.13%EV -4.17%E -2.96%K -10.18%G +0.000%	2.88I 34.72%NM 32.87%EV -7.73%E -2.68%K -4.11%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-09-25 20:35
Betclic (FR)🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 67.85%EV -7.57%E -5.57%K -21.03%G +0.000%	2.87I 34.84%NM 32.15%EV -8.05%E -2.80%K -4.30%G +0.000%	8.4%	2026-09-26 02:23
Betr (AU)🎯	1.41I 70.92%NM 66.90%EV -4.17%E -2.96%K -10.18%G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09%NM 33.10%EV -8.69%E -3.05%K -4.70%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-09-26 19:55
Winamax (FR)🎯	1.37I 72.99%NM 67.15%EV -6.89%E -5.03%K -18.63%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 32.85%EV -10.29%E -3.68%K -5.72%G +0.000%	8.7%	2026-09-27 00:20
Grosvenor🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 67.09%EV -11.65%E -8.96%K -38.83%G +0.000%	2.65I 37.74%NM 32.91%EV -15.10%E -5.70%K -9.15%G +0.000%	14.7%	2026-09-25 20:35

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
BetOpenly◎	1.43I 69.93%NM 69.83%	3.31I 30.21%NM 30.17%	0.1%	2026-09-27 01:00
Novig◎	1.45I 68.97%NM 68.34%	3.13I 31.95%NM 31.66%	0.9%	2026-09-27 01:00
Matchbook◎	1.43I 69.93%NM 69.11%	3.20I 31.25%NM 30.89%	1.2%	2026-09-27 01:00
ProphetX◎	1.41I 70.92%NM 68.74%	3.10I 32.26%NM 31.26%	3.2%	2026-09-27 01:00

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3	Margin ▲	Updated
1xBet🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 68.80%	3.19I 31.35%NM 29.33%	50.00I 2.00%NM 1.87%	6.9%	2026-09-26 08:40