Language:English
Lucas Armand v Anthony Wint
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Lucas Armand (Local)
Prediction 18.50%5.40fair odd
EV +3.62%
Edge +0.647%
Kelly +0.788%
Growth +0.029%
assuming max odds 5.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.04%18.39%18.51%19.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.405.105.105.6022.73%19.61%19.61%17.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Anthony Wint (Visit)
Prediction 81.50%1.23fair odd
EV -3.02%
Edge -2.54%
Kelly -15.89%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.19
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
80.07%81.61%81.49%82.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.081.161.171.1992.59%85.90%85.47%84.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lucas Armand (Local): 18.50%; Anthony Wint (Visit): 81.50%. For Lucas Armand (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.40. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.62%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caesars🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.04%EV +3.62%E +0.647%K +0.788%G +0.029% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.96%EV -6.28%E -5.46%K -41.87%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-03 21:51 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV +1.77%E +0.322%K +0.394%G +0.007% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -6.28%E -5.46%K -41.87%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-03 21:55 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.81%EV -0.077%E -0.014%K -0.018%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 82.19%EV -4.65%E -3.97%K -27.35%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-10-03 22:05 |
| ReBet🎯 | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.08%EV -1.93%E -0.364%K -0.448%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.92%EV -4.65%E -3.97%K -27.35%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-10-03 21:35 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.22%EV -2.85%E -0.543%K -0.671%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.78%EV -4.65%E -3.97%K -27.35%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-10-03 21:35 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.22%EV -2.85%E -0.543%K -0.671%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.78%EV -4.65%E -3.97%K -27.35%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-10-02 12:25 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.62%EV -3.78%E -0.727%K -0.900%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 81.38%EV -3.02%E -2.54%K -15.89%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-10-03 22:05 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.50%EV -3.78%E -0.727%K -0.900%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 81.50%EV -3.83%E -3.25%K -21.31%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-30 21:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.37%EV -3.78%E -0.727%K -0.900%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.63%EV -4.65%E -3.97%K -27.35%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-02 12:24 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 5.15I 19.42%NM 18.51%EV -4.70%E -0.913%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.49%EV -4.65%E -3.97%K -27.35%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-03 21:35 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.79%EV -5.63%E -1.10%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 81.21%EV -3.83%E -3.25%K -21.31%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-10-03 22:05 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.79%EV -5.63%E -1.10%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 81.21%EV -3.83%E -3.25%K -21.31%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-10-03 15:25 |
| Bovada🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.79%EV -5.63%E -1.10%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 81.21%EV -3.83%E -3.25%K -21.31%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-10-03 21:59 |
| Unibet🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -5.63%E -1.10%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -4.65%E -3.97%K -27.35%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-03 21:15 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -5.63%E -1.10%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -4.65%E -3.97%K -27.35%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-03 21:15 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -5.63%E -1.10%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -4.65%E -3.97%K -27.35%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-03 21:15 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -5.63%E -1.10%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -4.65%E -3.97%K -27.35%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-03 21:15 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -5.63%E -1.10%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -4.65%E -3.97%K -27.35%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-03 21:15 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -5.63%E -1.10%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -4.65%E -3.97%K -27.35%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-03 21:15 |
| betPARX🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -5.63%E -1.10%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -4.65%E -3.97%K -27.35%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-03 21:14 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -5.63%E -1.10%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -4.65%E -3.97%K -27.35%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-03 21:15 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -7.48%E -1.50%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -3.83%E -3.25%K -21.31%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-30 22:19 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -7.48%E -1.50%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -4.65%E -3.97%K -27.35%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-03 21:15 |
| Betsson🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -7.48%E -1.50%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -5.46%E -4.71%K -34.16%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-03 15:25 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -7.48%E -1.50%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -7.09%E -6.22%K -50.68%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-10-03 15:36 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -7.48%E -1.50%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -7.09%E -6.22%K -50.68%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-10-03 15:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -7.48%E -1.50%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -7.09%E -6.22%K -50.68%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-10-03 21:30 |
| Fliff🎯 | 4.95I 20.20%NM 18.85%EV -8.40%E -1.70%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.15%EV -6.28%E -5.46%K -41.87%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-10-03 22:01 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.44%EV -10.25%E -2.11%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.56%EV -4.65%E -3.97%K -27.35%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-03 12:10 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.93%EV -13.03%E -2.77%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.07%EV -4.65%E -3.97%K -27.35%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-03 21:31 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 19.71%EV -18.58%E -4.22%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 80.29%EV -11.98%E -11.10%K -149.81%G +0.000% | 15.3% | 2026-10-03 21:15 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 5.66I 17.67%NM 17.61% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 82.39% | 0.3% | 2026-10-03 21:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 5.50I 18.18%NM 18.03% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 81.97% | 0.8% | 2026-10-03 22:01 |
| Novig◎ | 5.26I 19.01%NM 18.83% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 81.17% | 1.0% | 2026-10-03 22:10 |
| Matchbook◎ | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.31% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 81.69% | 1.2% | 2026-10-03 22:09 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.31% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 81.69% | 1.2% | 2026-10-03 22:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.31% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 81.69% | 1.2% | 2026-10-03 22:10 |
| ProphetX◎ | 4.65I 21.51%NM 20.10% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.90% | 7.0% | 2026-10-03 22:10 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 4.91I 20.37%NM 18.76% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 79.40% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.84% | 8.6% | 2026-10-02 21:20 |