Language:English
Luan Lacerda v Enrique Hecher Sosa
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Luan Lacerda (Local)
Prediction 36.00%2.78fair odd
EV +8.00%
Edge +2.67%
Kelly +4.00%
Growth +0.320%
assuming max odds 3.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.82%35.89%36.01%38.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.482.652.653.0040.32%37.74%37.74%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Enrique Hecher Sosa (Visit)
Prediction 64.00%1.56fair odd
EV -0.162%
Edge -0.104%
Kelly -0.289%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.56
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.58%64.11%63.99%68.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.491.481.5671.43%67.13%67.57%64.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Luan Lacerda (Local): 36.00%; Enrique Hecher Sosa (Visit): 64.00%. For Luan Lacerda (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.78. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.00%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (39 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betway🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV +8.00%E +2.67%K +4.00%G +0.320% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -10.40%E -7.43%K -26.00%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-13 09:49 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV +4.40%E +1.52%K +2.32%G +0.102% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -10.40%E -7.43%K -26.00%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-12 22:30 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 35.14%EV -0.997%E -0.363%K -0.570%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.86%EV -4.64%E -3.12%K -9.47%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-03-14 21:20 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -0.997%E -0.363%K -0.570%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -7.84%E -5.45%K -17.82%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-14 18:04 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -2.80%E -1.04%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -5.28%E -3.57%K -11.00%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-14 21:25 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -2.80%E -1.04%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -5.92%E -4.03%K -12.60%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-14 21:25 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.68I 37.31%NM 36.19%EV -3.52%E -1.31%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 63.81%EV -2.72%E -1.79%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-03-14 21:20 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.66I 37.59%NM 36.06%EV -4.24%E -1.59%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.94%EV -4.00%E -2.67%K -8.00%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-14 21:10 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.30%EV -4.60%E -1.73%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.70%EV -3.36%E -2.23%K -6.59%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-14 21:25 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -4.60%E -1.73%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -4.00%E -2.67%K -8.00%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-14 21:24 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -4.60%E -1.73%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -4.00%E -2.67%K -8.00%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-14 21:25 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -4.60%E -1.73%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.28%E -3.57%K -11.00%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-14 20:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -4.60%E -1.73%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.28%E -3.57%K -11.00%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-14 20:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -4.60%E -1.73%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.28%E -3.57%K -11.00%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-14 20:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -4.60%E -1.73%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.28%E -3.57%K -11.00%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-14 20:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -4.60%E -1.73%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.28%E -3.57%K -11.00%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-14 20:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -4.60%E -1.73%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.28%E -3.57%K -11.00%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-14 20:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -4.60%E -1.73%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.28%E -3.57%K -11.00%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-14 20:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -4.60%E -1.73%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.28%E -3.57%K -11.00%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-14 20:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -4.60%E -1.73%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.28%E -3.57%K -11.00%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-14 20:00 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -4.60%E -1.73%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.28%E -3.57%K -11.00%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-14 20:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -4.60%E -1.73%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.28%E -3.57%K -11.00%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-14 20:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -4.60%E -1.73%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.28%E -3.57%K -11.00%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-14 20:00 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -4.60%E -1.73%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.28%E -3.57%K -11.00%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-14 20:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.64I 37.88%NM 36.39%EV -4.96%E -1.88%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.61%EV -3.36%E -2.23%K -6.59%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-14 21:25 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.64I 37.88%NM 36.39%EV -4.96%E -1.88%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.61%EV -3.36%E -2.23%K -6.59%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-14 18:45 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -5.32%E -2.02%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -4.00%E -2.67%K -8.00%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-14 18:45 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.71%EV -5.68%E -2.17%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 63.29%EV -2.72%E -1.79%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-14 18:15 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -5.68%E -2.17%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -4.00%E -2.67%K -8.00%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-14 18:44 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.61I 38.31%NM 36.50%EV -6.04%E -2.31%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.50%EV -4.00%E -2.67%K -8.00%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-14 18:45 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.20%EV -6.40%E -2.46%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.80%EV -1.44%E -0.936%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-03-14 20:13 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.40%E -2.46%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.00%E -2.67%K -8.00%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-14 19:35 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -6.40%E -2.46%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -5.28%E -3.57%K -11.00%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-14 21:10 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -6.40%E -2.46%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -7.20%E -4.97%K -16.00%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-14 21:25 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -8.20%E -3.21%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -2.72%E -1.79%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-14 20:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -8.20%E -3.21%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -2.72%E -1.79%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-14 20:20 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -8.20%E -3.21%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -4.00%E -2.67%K -8.00%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-14 19:55 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -10.00%E -4.00%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -0.162%E -0.104%K -0.289%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-14 18:13 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -10.72%E -4.32%K -7.24%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -1.44%E -0.936%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-14 18:30 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 2.81I 35.59%NM 35.55% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 64.45% | 0.1% | 2026-03-14 21:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.77% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 63.23% | 0.7% | 2026-03-14 21:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.77% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 63.23% | 0.7% | 2026-03-14 21:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.77% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 63.23% | 0.7% | 2026-03-14 21:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.77% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 63.23% | 0.7% | 2026-03-14 21:20 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.68I 37.31%NM 36.94% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 63.06% | 1.0% | 2026-03-14 21:15 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.62% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 63.38% | 1.1% | 2026-03-14 21:25 |
| Novig◎ | 2.62I 38.17%NM 37.62% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 62.38% | 1.5% | 2026-03-14 21:25 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.67I 37.45%NM 34.54% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.61% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.84% | 8.4% | 2026-03-14 18:40 |