The School of Odds
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Louie Sutherland v Jose Montanha

2026-08-15 23:30 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Louie Sutherland (Local)

Prediction 60.05%1.67fair odd
EV -2.72%
Edge -1.68%
Kelly -4.38%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.14%60.05%60.05%60.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.591.601.6263.69%62.70%62.70%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Jose Montanha (Visit)

Prediction 39.95%2.50fair odd
EV -5.72%
Edge -2.42%
Kelly -4.21%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.95%39.95%39.95%41.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.302.302.3644.44%43.43%43.48%42.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Louie Sutherland (Local): 60.05%; Jose Montanha (Visit): 39.95%. For Louie Sutherland (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.67. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 1.62, with an expected value of -2.72%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Paddy Power1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -2.72%E -1.68%K -4.38%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -10.11%E -4.50%K -8.09%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-02 07:08
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -2.72%E -1.68%K -4.38%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -10.11%E -4.50%K -8.09%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-02 07:14
FanDuel1.57I 63.69%NM 60.05%EV -5.72%E -3.64%K -10.04%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 39.95%EV -5.72%E -2.42%K -4.21%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-02 07:05
SportsBet1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.72%E -3.64%K -10.04%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -6.12%E -2.60%K -4.53%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-02 06:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.