The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Louie Sutherland v Jose Montanha

Kickoff: 2026-08-15 23:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Louie Sutherland (Local)

Prediction 60.05%1.67fair odd
EV -2.72%
Edge -1.68%
Kelly -4.38%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.14%60.05%60.05%60.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.591.601.6263.69%62.70%62.70%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Jose Montanha (Visit)

Prediction 39.95%2.50fair odd
EV -5.72%
Edge -2.42%
Kelly -4.21%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.95%39.95%39.95%41.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.302.302.3644.44%43.43%43.48%42.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Louie Sutherland (Local): 60.05%; Jose Montanha (Visit): 39.95%. For Louie Sutherland (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.67. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.62, with an expected value of -2.72%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Paddy Power🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -2.72%E -1.68%K -4.38%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -10.11%E -4.50%K -8.09%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-02 07:08
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -2.72%E -1.68%K -4.38%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -10.11%E -4.50%K -8.09%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-02 07:14
FanDuel🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.05%EV -5.72%E -3.64%K -10.04%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 39.95%EV -5.72%E -2.42%K -4.21%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-02 07:05
SportsBet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.72%E -3.64%K -10.04%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -6.12%E -2.60%K -4.53%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-02 06:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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