Language:English
Losene Keita v Muhammadjon Naimov
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Losene Keita (Local)
Prediction 75.29%1.33fair odd
EV -0.612%
Edge -0.463%
Kelly -1.91%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.32
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
71.73%75.25%75.00%76.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.181.261.261.3284.75%79.32%79.37%75.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Muhammadjon Naimov (Visit)
Prediction 24.71%4.05fair odd
EV +4.01%
Edge +0.953%
Kelly +1.25%
Growth +0.050%
assuming max odds 4.21
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.03%24.75%25.00%28.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.353.803.804.2129.85%26.28%26.32%23.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Losene Keita (Local): 75.29%; Muhammadjon Naimov (Visit): 24.71%. For Muhammadjon Naimov (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.05. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.21, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.01%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (39 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.97%EV -5.13%E -4.07%K -19.73%G +0.000% | 4.21I 23.75%NM 23.03%EV +4.01%E +0.953%K +1.25%G +0.050% | 3.1% | 2026-09-04 13:25 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -5.88%E -4.71%K -23.53%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV +1.29%E +0.315%K +0.417%G +0.005% | 4.4% | 2026-09-03 18:14 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -5.88%E -4.71%K -23.53%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV +1.29%E +0.315%K +0.417%G +0.005% | 4.4% | 2026-09-02 19:34 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -6.64%E -5.35%K -27.65%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV +1.29%E +0.315%K +0.417%G +0.005% | 5.0% | 2026-09-04 12:30 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -6.64%E -5.35%K -27.65%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV +1.29%E +0.315%K +0.417%G +0.005% | 5.0% | 2026-09-04 12:28 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.42%EV -5.88%E -4.71%K -23.53%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.58%EV +0.058%E +0.014%K +0.019%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-03 16:45 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.42%EV -5.88%E -4.71%K -23.53%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.58%EV +0.058%E +0.014%K +0.019%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-03 16:45 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.05%EV -5.13%E -4.07%K -19.73%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.95%EV -1.18%E -0.294%K -0.392%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-02 12:23 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.88%E -4.71%K -23.53%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -1.18%E -0.294%K -0.392%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-02 12:20 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.88%E -4.71%K -23.53%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -1.18%E -0.294%K -0.392%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-04 01:54 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -5.88%E -4.71%K -23.53%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -3.65%E -0.935%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-03 20:45 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 75.05%EV -3.62%E -2.83%K -12.94%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.95%EV -4.88%E -1.27%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-29 22:04 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.85%EV -2.87%E -2.23%K -9.90%G +0.000% | 3.84I 26.04%NM 25.15%EV -5.13%E -1.34%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-09-03 23:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -4.38%E -3.45%K -16.21%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -6.12%E -1.61%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-01 15:55 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -4.38%E -3.45%K -16.21%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -6.12%E -1.61%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-01 15:54 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -4.38%E -3.45%K -16.21%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -6.12%E -1.61%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-01 15:55 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -4.38%E -3.45%K -16.21%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -6.12%E -1.61%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-01 15:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -4.38%E -3.45%K -16.21%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -6.12%E -1.61%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-01 15:54 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -4.38%E -3.45%K -16.21%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -6.12%E -1.61%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-01 15:54 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -4.38%E -3.45%K -16.21%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -6.12%E -1.61%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-01 15:55 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -4.38%E -3.45%K -16.21%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -6.12%E -1.61%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-01 15:54 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -4.38%E -3.45%K -16.21%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -6.12%E -1.61%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-01 15:54 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.61%EV -2.87%E -2.23%K -9.90%G +0.000% | 3.79I 26.39%NM 25.39%EV -6.37%E -1.68%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-09-03 23:24 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -3.62%E -2.83%K -12.94%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -7.35%E -1.96%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-31 19:05 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -4.38%E -3.45%K -16.21%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -7.35%E -1.96%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-01 12:14 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.85%EV -5.13%E -4.07%K -19.73%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -7.35%E -1.96%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-03 18:25 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -5.88%E -4.71%K -23.53%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -7.35%E -1.96%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-04 01:35 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -5.88%E -4.71%K -23.53%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -7.35%E -1.96%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-04 01:34 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -5.88%E -4.71%K -23.53%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -7.35%E -1.96%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-04 12:09 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 75.30%EV -7.39%E -6.01%K -32.12%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.70%EV -7.35%E -1.96%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-03 19:05 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.45%EV -4.38%E -3.45%K -16.21%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -8.59%E -2.32%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-03 23:25 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.60%EV -5.13%E -4.07%K -19.73%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -8.59%E -2.32%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-03 04:43 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -4.38%E -3.45%K -16.21%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81%EV -9.82%E -2.69%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-03 23:25 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 74.53%EV -7.39%E -6.01%K -32.12%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.47%EV -11.06%E -3.07%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-03 23:25 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -2.12%E -1.63%K -7.06%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -13.53%E -3.87%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-01 17:05 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 73.53%EV -5.13%E -4.07%K -19.73%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -13.53%E -3.87%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-04 13:20 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -5.88%E -4.71%K -23.53%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -13.53%E -3.87%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-04 04:34 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -0.612%E -0.463%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -17.24%E -5.15%K -7.33%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-29 09:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 73.95%EV -11.15%E -9.45%K -61.96%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.05%EV -17.24%E -5.15%K -7.33%G +0.000% | 14.6% | 2026-09-01 15:55 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 1.28I 78.13%NM 77.26% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.74% | 1.1% | 2026-09-04 10:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.28I 78.13%NM 77.06% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.94% | 1.4% | 2026-09-04 06:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.28I 78.13%NM 77.06% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.94% | 1.4% | 2026-09-04 06:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.28I 78.13%NM 77.06% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.94% | 1.4% | 2026-09-04 06:10 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.28I 78.13%NM 76.21% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.79% | 2.5% | 2026-09-04 03:45 |
| Novig◎ | 1.27I 78.74%NM 76.65% | 4.17I 23.98%NM 23.35% | 2.7% | 2026-09-04 08:00 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04% | 5.3% | 2026-09-04 13:20 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.06% | 3.73I 26.81%NM 25.07% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.87% | 6.9% | 2026-09-03 04:45 |