Language:English
Long Xiao v Francesco Nuzzi
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Long Xiao (Local)
Prediction 61.41%1.63fair odd
EV -1.13%
Edge -0.700%
Kelly -1.85%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.61
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.29%61.39%61.41%62.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.511.571.571.6166.23%63.88%63.69%62.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Francesco Nuzzi (Visit)
Prediction 38.59%2.59fair odd
EV +0.330%
Edge +0.127%
Kelly +0.206%
Growth +0.001%
assuming max odds 2.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.05%38.61%38.59%40.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.432.452.6045.45%41.10%40.82%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Long Xiao (Local): 61.41%; Francesco Nuzzi (Visit): 38.59%. For Francesco Nuzzi (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.59. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.330%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (35 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caesars🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -6.04%E -3.95%K -11.40%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV +0.330%E +0.127%K +0.206%G +0.001% | 3.8% | 2026-08-29 08:20 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.77%EV -6.04%E -3.95%K -11.40%G +0.000% | 2.58I 38.76%NM 37.23%EV -0.442%E -0.171%K -0.280%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-29 08:15 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.90%EV -7.27%E -4.81%K -14.25%G +0.000% | 2.56I 39.06%NM 37.10%EV -1.21%E -0.474%K -0.778%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-29 08:15 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.89%EV -3.58%E -2.28%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 38.11%EV -1.60%E -0.627%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-08-29 08:10 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -5.43%E -3.52%K -10.05%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -1.60%E -0.627%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-22 14:20 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.71%EV -3.58%E -2.28%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 2.53I 39.53%NM 38.29%EV -2.37%E -0.937%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-08-29 08:15 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.86%EV -4.20%E -2.69%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 2.53I 39.53%NM 38.14%EV -2.37%E -0.937%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-08-29 08:17 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -4.20%E -2.69%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -3.53%E -1.41%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-29 08:15 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -4.20%E -2.69%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -3.53%E -1.41%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-29 08:10 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -4.20%E -2.69%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -3.53%E -1.41%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-29 08:17 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.04%E -3.95%K -11.40%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -3.53%E -1.41%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-29 08:10 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.04%E -3.95%K -11.40%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -3.53%E -1.41%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-29 08:10 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.04%E -3.95%K -11.40%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -3.53%E -1.41%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-29 08:15 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.04%EV -3.58%E -2.28%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 2.46I 40.65%NM 38.96%EV -5.07%E -2.06%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-29 08:20 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -3.58%E -2.28%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -5.46%E -2.23%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-28 14:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -3.58%E -2.28%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -5.46%E -2.23%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-28 14:00 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -4.20%E -2.69%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -5.46%E -2.23%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-27 12:40 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -4.81%E -3.10%K -8.75%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -5.46%E -2.23%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-29 08:15 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -4.81%E -3.10%K -8.75%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -5.46%E -2.23%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-27 00:18 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -3.58%E -2.28%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -7.39%E -3.08%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-28 15:05 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -3.58%E -2.28%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -7.39%E -3.08%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-28 03:05 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -3.58%E -2.28%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -7.39%E -3.08%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-29 08:10 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -3.58%E -2.28%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -7.39%E -3.08%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-29 08:10 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -4.20%E -2.69%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -7.39%E -3.08%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-29 08:10 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -1.13%E -0.700%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -9.32%E -3.96%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-28 16:40 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -2.97%E -1.88%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -9.32%E -3.96%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-29 06:45 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -1.74%E -1.09%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -10.09%E -4.33%K -7.59%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-28 16:40 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -1.74%E -1.09%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -10.09%E -4.33%K -7.59%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-28 16:40 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -1.74%E -1.09%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -10.09%E -4.33%K -7.59%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-28 16:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -1.74%E -1.09%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -10.09%E -4.33%K -7.59%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-28 16:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -1.74%E -1.09%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -10.09%E -4.33%K -7.59%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-28 16:40 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -1.74%E -1.09%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -10.09%E -4.33%K -7.59%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-28 16:39 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -1.74%E -1.09%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -10.09%E -4.33%K -7.59%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-28 16:40 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -1.74%E -1.09%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -10.09%E -4.33%K -7.59%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-28 16:40 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 59.30%EV -7.27%E -4.81%K -14.25%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.70%EV -15.11%E -6.87%K -12.59%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-08-28 16:40 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.62I 61.73%NM 61.61% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 38.39% | 0.2% | 2026-08-29 08:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.62I 61.73%NM 61.43% | 2.58I 38.76%NM 38.57% | 0.5% | 2026-08-29 08:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.62I 61.73%NM 61.24% | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.76% | 0.8% | 2026-08-29 08:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.61I 62.11%NM 61.58% | 2.58I 38.76%NM 38.42% | 0.9% | 2026-08-29 08:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.61I 62.11%NM 61.58% | 2.58I 38.76%NM 38.42% | 0.9% | 2026-08-29 08:20 |
| Novig◎ | 1.59I 62.89%NM 62.32% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 37.68% | 0.9% | 2026-08-29 08:20 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.05% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 37.95% | 8.9% | 2026-08-29 08:15 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.44% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.71% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.84% | 8.5% | 2026-08-28 16:55 |