Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Long Xiao v Francesco Nuzzi

2026-08-29 10:00 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

2 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

61%

39%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Long Xiao (Local)

Prediction 60.60%1.65fair odd

EV -1.23%

Edge -0.754%

Kelly -1.95%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.63

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

59.15%60.60%60.60%62.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.561.591.591.6364.10%62.70%62.70%61.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Francesco Nuzzi (Visit)

Prediction 39.40%2.54fair odd

EV +0.481%

Edge +0.188%

Kelly +0.310%

Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 2.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

37.96%39.40%39.40%40.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.362.462.462.5542.37%40.73%40.73%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Long Xiao (Local): 60.60%; Francesco Nuzzi (Visit): 39.40%. For Francesco Nuzzi (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.54. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 2.55, producing a positive expected value of +0.481%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (2 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.56I 64.10%NM 62.04%EV -5.47%E -3.51%K -9.77%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.96%EV +0.481%E +0.188%K +0.310%G +0.001%	3.3%	2026-08-20 16:04
Pinnacle🎯	1.56I 64.10%NM 61.86%EV -5.47%E -3.51%K -9.77%G +0.000%	2.53I 39.53%NM 38.14%EV -0.307%E -0.122%K -0.201%G +0.000%	3.6%	2026-08-20 17:55

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3	Margin ▲	Updated
1xBet🎯	1.63I 61.35%NM 57.27%	2.34I 42.74%NM 39.90%	33.00I 3.03%NM 2.83%	7.1%	2026-08-20 19:59

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